PANews reported on November 12th, citing CoinDesk, that Fred Thiel, CEO of MARA Holdings, stated that the Bitcoin mining industry is entering a difficult period, characterized by increased competition, rising energy demands, and shrinking profits. He explained that Bitcoin mining is a zero-sum game; increased computing power raises mining difficulty and energy costs, squeezing profit margins. The industry is becoming increasingly brutal, and only mining companies with access to low-cost, reliable energy or adopting new business models will survive. Many mining companies are shifting towards artificial intelligence or high-performance computing infrastructure, while others are being squeezed out of the market by participants who can deploy their own hardware at low cost.
Thiel warns that the environment for mining companies will be even more challenging after the next Bitcoin halving in 2028, with block rewards dropping to just over 1.5 Bitcoins. Unless transaction fees rise or the price of Bitcoin surges, the mining economy will be unsustainable. Bitcoin was designed so that transaction fees would eventually replace block rewards, but this hasn't happened. Currently, transaction fees are generally low, and even brief spikes are unlikely to replace block rewards. In this environment, smaller mining companies face immense pressure. Larger mining companies are adapting by controlling energy sources and investing in dedicated AI infrastructure, while leaner companies may be forced to shut down. Thiel predicts the market will self-regulate, stating, "By 2028, mining companies will either become power producers, be acquired by power producers, or partner with power producers."
