Under the geopolitical disturbance, the capital recovery is limited, the mainstream currency fluctuates and adjusts, the copycat currency stops rising and retreats, and the market is accumulating momentum at a high level.

Macro variables are becoming more disturbed, and emotions are fluctuating repeatedly:

• Israel's air strikes on Iran triggered a brief risk aversion in the market, volatility declined, expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve increased, and sentiment tended to be cautious and wait-and-see.

Funding momentum has recovered marginally but lacks continuity:

• ETFs returned to a net inflow of US$1.02 billion but the momentum slowed down, the growth rate of stablecoin issuance declined, the USDT premium weakened, and funds were cautious and did not enter the market.

The trend of mainstream coins diverged, BTC slowed down in strength, and ETH rebounded and then adjusted:

• BTC hit a resistance and pulled back after reaching a high, ETH rebounded but the momentum weakened, MicroStrategy and LTH continued to accumulate funds, and the structure remained neutral to strong.

The liquidity of the Shanzhai has improved marginally but failed to rise:

• TOTAL2 rebounded but was blocked and then pulled back, while OTHERS market share stopped falling and fluctuated. The on-chain prosperity and decline value was 53, and it has not yet walked out of the weak channel.
• It is currently at the end of consolidation, and in the short term we need to wait for funds to break through and cooperate, and patiently observe the signs of the strengthening of the copycat structure and the return of funds to mainstream currencies.

1. Macro and market environment

• Geopolitics: The Israel-Iran conflict was limited to missile/drone firing, without risk of all-out war, and lasted about two weeks, with the United States providing support but not directly intervening.
• Market dynamics: Oil prices rose on sentiment, Bitcoin returned to $105,000, U.S. stocks rebounded, volatility decreased, and the market stabilized.
• Economic policy: The probability of a rate cut in July increases, Trump puts pressure on rate cuts, the Federal Reserve balances inflation/economy, and the conflict may involve the US-Israel game.

2. Analysis of capital flows & market structure of mainstream currencies

External Funding Flows

• ETF funds: 2.80046 billion inflows this week, a large inflow
• Stablecoins: 2.3 billion new coins were issued this week, with an average daily increase of 321 million, and the issuance level is relatively high.

Market sentiment indicators

• OTC premium: Stablecoin premium continues to rise

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Technical analysis: The market is in a volatile upward range
• On-chain chip distribution: 10.3w and above chips are enhanced

Ethereum (ETH)

• The trend is weaker than BTC, ETH/BTC remains volatile, and funds continue to flow back to BTC dominance.
• On-chain changes: The increase in active addresses may indicate that the staged bottoming out has been completed.

Macroeconomic Review

Focus on geopolitical wars

• Geopolitical context:

Iran’s terrain is mainly mountainous, and it is surrounded by mountains. Its population and conventional weapons (such as tanks) far exceed those of Israel, making it difficult for Israel to launch a ground war alone. Unless the United States intervenes directly, the conflict will be limited to targeted eliminations (such as missile and drone attacks).

• Scale and duration of conflict:

Israel has stated that the fighting will continue for two weeks, and the conflict is expected to be a long-term low-intensity confrontation rather than a large-scale conventional or nuclear war. Jordan's buffer zone further limits direct ground contact.

• Impact Assessment:

Under the current circumstances, the market is less concerned about a full-scale war, and geopolitical risks are more likely to manifest themselves in terms of sentiment fluctuations rather than substantial military escalation.

• Oil price dynamics:

The current rise in oil prices is due to emotional reactions rather than supply disruptions, as Israel did not target Iranian oil plants, ports or transportation routes. The attacks were limited to nuclear facilities and personnel targets, with no direct impact on global oil supplies in the short term.

• US stocks and cryptocurrencies:

Although the US stock market was negative before the market opened, it was rebounding, and Bitcoin rebounded to $105,000, indicating that market sentiment has improved. Volatility fell from the morning high (which once fell sharply and rebounded), and fluctuated in the $1,000 range in the afternoon.

• Volatility changes:

Compared with macroeconomic events at the beginning of the year (such as extremely high volatility during the Chinese New Year, with fluctuations of up to $1,000 per second), the current market is desensitized to geopolitics and volatility has decreased.

• Impact of institutional holdings:

Institutions (such as pension funds and insurance companies) hold more positions, and the circulating currency decreases, similar to the US stock market model (bull market is long, bear market is short). The ETF lock-up effect is significant, with outflows and inflows balanced but the majority locked.

• Market rhythm:

The trend of Bitcoin is increasingly linked to the US stock market. The long decision-making cycle of institutions (adjusting positions in years) has led to a decrease in circulating chips and improved market stability. However, in the short term, it is still driven by emotions, such as the rebound after a drop at 6 am.

• Comparison with other cryptocurrencies:

ETH and SOL still maintain a high volatility rhythm due to the lack of giant ETFs and deep institutional participation.

Neutral interest rate

From the meeting on July 30, 2025 to December 9, 2026, the probability distribution of rate cuts gradually changes.

The October 29 and December 10, 2025 meetings showed that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut to 375-400 basis points is gradually increasing.

In particular, the December 10, 2025 meeting has a 28.6% probability of a 225-250 basis point rate cut and a 21.3% probability of a 400-425 basis point rate cut. The 2026 meeting shows that the rate cuts may stabilize, with a more dispersed probability distribution.

Next week's key events

Impact of key events next week

Macro data release table

Data Release

2. On-chain data analysis

1. Changes in short- and medium-term market data that affect the market this week

1.1 Stablecoin Fund Flow

Compared with last week (5/31-6-6), the stablecoin fund data this week showed that the issuance of stablecoins increased from 1.005 billion to 1.149 billion, a month-on-month increase of 14%, and the average daily issuance increased from 143 million to 164 million, a month-on-month increase of 14%. It can be seen that although the issuance of stablecoins this week is still increasing compared with last week, the growth rate of issuance has begun to slow down. Compared with the recovery of the growth rate of issuance last week, the growth rate of issuance this week has cooled down again. The flow of stablecoin funds is closely related to the price trend of mainstream currencies such as BTC. Changes in market sentiment will directly affect the issuance and circulation of stablecoins. Therefore, combined with the yellow line BTC price in the figure, the cooling of the growth rate of stablecoin issuance this week may also be one of the reasons why the BTC price tested the previous high this week but did not break through.

In general, stablecoins’ role as a “fund pool” in the crypto market deserves our attention. The current total amount of stablecoins is still growing, but the pace of issuance fluctuates. It is not yet the rhythm of a comprehensive market strengthening, so it is recommended to maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude.

1.2 ETF Fund Flow

From June 6 to June 13 this week, Bitcoin ETF resumed net inflows, with a net inflow of $1.02045 billion, an increase of $1.718 billion compared to last week, reflecting that the investment sentiment of institutional investors and US investors is warming up in the short term. Specifically for a single day, as can be seen from the chart, the net inflow rate of Bitcoin ETF in the first two days of this week showed an accelerated warming, and the price of Bitcoin also rebounded to the highest point of the week on Tuesday and tested the previous high area of the previous price pattern again. In the following days, Bitcoin ETF was still in a state of net inflow, but the inflow rate had begun to cool down. Synchronous to the BTC price, it also began to peak and pull back from Wednesday. The investment sentiment of institutional investors began to cool down in the second half of this week. Therefore, overall, before the downward trend of the net inflow rate of Bitcoin ETF reverses, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a continued decline in the price of BTC.

Another data worth noting this week is the ETH ETF. As can be seen from the chart, the ETH ETF has seen relatively large and continuous inflows this week. The continuous inflows must be due to relatively favorable factors affecting the medium and long term. However, after the inflow of 240 million on June 11, the market also experienced a correction. We should also pay attention to whether there are irrational short-term situations in the ETF market.

1.3 OTC Discounts and Premiums

Judging from the trend in the past week (6/7-6/13), the OTC premiums of USDT and USDC first rebounded simultaneously, reflecting that there was a return of OTC funds to the market in the first half of this week. The overall rebound and rise of the market in the first half of this week also reflected this. Starting from Wednesday, the OTC premium rates of USDT and USDC began to turn downward after reaching 99.79% and 100% respectively. The overall market almost started a new correction on Wednesday, but on Thursday, the OTC premium rate of USDC turned upward again and parted ways with USDT. As of today, the OTC premium rate of USDC has returned to 100% again, while USDT continued to fall to 99.65%. Although USDC has rebounded, the OTC premium rate has not exceeded 100%, and the overall OTC premium rate trend of USDC and USDT from the beginning of this year to now is still a downward trend. In normal or bull market stages, stablecoins often have a slight premium, which means that there is capital willing to buy stablecoins at a higher price. Therefore, from the current USDC and USDT premium rates, it can be seen that the market as a whole is still conservative, and the overall sentiment is still inclined to wait and see.

1.4 MicroStrategy Purchase

From the buying behavior of MicroStrategy, we can find that although MicroStrategy has continued to increase its holdings of Bitcoin this year, the pace of buying has slowed down significantly as the price of Bitcoin has increased after the price of Bitcoin reached 100,000. When it bought Bitcoin at around 106,495 on June 2 last week, the number of Bitcoins it bought dropped from 4,020 on May 26 to 705. However, this week when the price of Bitcoin was around 105,426, it bought 1,040 Bitcoins. The purchase volume increased slightly as the price fell. Therefore, it can be seen that MicroStrategy currently tends to be cautious about buying more than 100,000 Bitcoins, but is willing to increase its purchases when the price of Bitcoin falls.

1.5 Holdings of long-term and short-term holders

As of early June 2025, BTC on-chain data showed that the supply of long-term holders (LTH) continued to rise, reaching a nearly six-month high of about 14.4 million BTC, indicating that the confidence of medium- and long-term funds in the market continued to increase, and a large number of BTC were locked in inactive wallets, further reducing liquidity. At the same time, the supply of short-term holders (STH) has been declining since the high point at the beginning of the year, hitting a low point at the end of May, indicating that the selling pressure has continued to weaken in the past few months. There was a slight rebound last week, which may reflect that some short-term traders in the market began to buy the bottom, but this week the supply of short-term holders began to turn downward again, while the supply of long-term holders continued to reach new highs. It can be seen that the pullback in the second half of this week may be mainly driven by the selling pressure of short-term holders, while long-term holders are still increasing their holdings, so even if the price pulls back, it may be a good opportunity to buy the bottom.

2. Changes in mid-term market data that affect the market this week

2.1 Coin holding address ratio and URPD

Judging from the proportion of coins held by coin holding addresses, the proportion of holdings of addresses with more than 1K but less than 10K decreased during the decline of BTC in the second half of this week, while the proportion of holdings of addresses with more than 100 but less than 1K and more than 10K but less than 100K continued to increase when BTC fell. Therefore, the decline in the second half of this week is more likely to be caused by the selling of addresses with more than 1K but less than 10K, but the selling pressure is gradually being absorbed by addresses with more than 100 but less than 1K and more than 10K but less than 100K.

From the perspective of URPD, there is little overall change from June 7 to June 13 this week, and the chip concentration area is still concentrated around 103,000-106,000.

To summarize this week's market, from the current perspective (2025/6/13), the technical side is currently in a relatively critical position. If the overall capital side begins to reverse at the beginning of next week, there is a chance for a rebound at the current position, and after the rebound, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level. However, if the capital side data continues to decline, it may cause Bitcoin to fall below the key defensive position and form a double top pattern, thereby generating unfavorable signals for the subsequent market for a period of time.

Special thanks

Creation is not easy. If you need to reprint or quote, please contact the author in advance for authorization or indicate the source. Thank you again for your support.

Written by: Sylvia / Jim / Mat / Cage / WolfDAO

Edited by: Punko / Nora

Thanks to the above partners for their outstanding contributions to this weekly report. This weekly report is published by WolfDAO for learning, communication, research or appreciation only.