Under the geopolitical disturbance, the capital recovery is limited, the mainstream currency fluctuates and adjusts, the copycat currency stops rising and retreats, and the market is accumulating momentum at a high level.

Macro variables are becoming more disturbed, and emotions are fluctuating repeatedly:

Israel's air strikes on Iran triggered a brief risk aversion in the market, volatility declined, expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve increased, and sentiment tended to be cautious and wait-and-see.

Funding momentum has recovered marginally but lacks continuity:

ETFs returned to a net inflow of US$1.02 billion but the momentum slowed down, the growth rate of stablecoin issuance declined, the USDT premium weakened, and funds were cautious and did not enter the market.

The trend of mainstream coins diverged, BTC slowed down in strength, and ETH rebounded and then adjusted:

BTC hit a resistance and pulled back after reaching a high, ETH rebounded but the momentum weakened, MicroStrategy and LTH continued to accumulate funds, and the structure remained neutral to strong.

The liquidity of the Shanzhai has improved marginally but failed to rise:

TOTAL2 rebounded but was blocked and then pulled back, while OTHERS market share stopped falling and fluctuated. The on-chain prosperity and decline value was 53, and it has not yet walked out of the weak channel.

It is currently at the end of consolidation, and in the short term we need to wait for funds to break through and cooperate, and patiently observe the signs of the strengthening of the copycat structure and the return of funds to mainstream currencies.

1. Macro and market environment

• The Federal Reserve meeting was neutral, maintaining the expectation of a 2-basis rate cut, but due to tariffs, upward revisions to inflation and downward revisions to the economy, the path of rate cuts was conservative.
• Q3 Due to oil prices, tariff implementation and low base inflation, it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates immediately. It is expected that after confirming the impact of tariffs and oil price trends in mid-August, September may be the time for the first rate cut, and core inflation may rise to 3.0% by the end of the year.

2. Analysis of capital flows & market structure of mainstream currencies

External Funding Flows

• ETF funds: 2.80046 billion inflows this week, a large inflow
• Stablecoins: 2.3 billion new issuances this week, with an average daily issuance of 321 million, and the issuance level is relatively high

Market sentiment indicators

• OTC premium: Stablecoin premium continues to rise

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Technical analysis: The market is in a volatile upward range
• On-chain chip distribution: 10.3w and above chips are enhanced

Ethereum (ETH)

• The trend is weaker than BTC, ETH/BTC remains volatile, and funds continue to flow back to BTC dominance.
• On-chain changes: The increase in active addresses may indicate that the staged bottoming out has been completed.

Macroeconomic Review

June FOMC meeting summary:

1. Interest rate decision and statement

• The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, and the scale of balance sheet reduction remained at 5 billion U.S. Treasuries and 35 billion MBS per month.
• Adjustments to the statement: The uncertainty in the economic outlook was changed from "further increased" to "weakened but still high", and the statement "the risks of rising unemployment and inflation increased" was deleted, reflecting that the impact of Trump's tariffs has been initially incorporated into the decision-making.
• The economy is expanding steadily, the job market is stable, and inflation uncertainty remains the key to the dual mandate (employment and inflation).
• The forward guidance on interest rates continued to be cautious, emphasizing that the extent and timing of rate cuts will be carefully evaluated, suggesting that the pace of rate cuts will be slow.

2. Interest rate dot plot

• In 2025, the interest rate will be cut by 2 basis points (3.75%~4.00%), but the distribution of committee members will move up: 7 members support no interest rate cut (the top 4), 2 members support a 1 basis point cut, 8 members support a 2 basis point cut, and 2 members support a 3 basis point cut. Only 1 member needs to move up to reduce the rate to 1 basis point.
• The interest rate cut will be reduced to 1 basis point (3.50%-3.75%) in 2026 and maintained at 1 basis point (3.25%-3.50%) in 2027. The long-term interest rate will remain unchanged (3%).
• Reflecting short-term inflationary pressures such as tariffs, members are more conservative about the path of interest rate cuts.

(1) Economic Forecast (SEP)

• The GDP for 2025 was revised down to 1.4% (previously 1.7%), the unemployment rate was revised up to 4.5% (previously 4.4%), and inflation and core inflation were revised up to 3.0% and 3.1% (previously 2.7% and 2.8%).
• The GDP, unemployment rate and inflation forecasts for 2026~2027 were slightly adjusted, and the time for core inflation to reach the 2% target was delayed.
• It reflects that tariffs have pushed up inflation at one time, and interest rate cuts are cautious but still support the economy and employment.

(2) Balance Sheet Reduction and Liquidity

• The balance sheet reduction rate was about 40 billion per month, and the balance sheet fell to 6.68 trillion, a recent low.
• The Treasury's debt ceiling expires in January, short-term Treasury bill financing absorbs liquidity, ON RRP is low (168.9 billion), TGA slows down (446.3 billion), and bank deposits rebound (3.407 trillion).
• In Q3, attention will be paid to the scale of bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance, TGA replenishment and changes in bank reserve requirements; liquidity may be under pressure.

Powell Press Conference Highlights

• The impact of tariffs has declined after reaching a peak in April, but it still pushes up inflation. It will take time for the transmission to take effect, and we may see a greater increase in commodity prices in the summer.
• The Federal Reserve needs to make forward-looking decisions and wait for the impact of tariffs on inflation, consumption, and employment to become clear. It is expected that the data will be clearer in the summer.
• The differences in the dot plot are due to different assessments of the economy and risks by the members, and the differences will narrow as future data flow in.
• Raising interest rates is not a basic scenario, and the timing of lowering interest rates has not been determined. It requires support from a stable economy and slowing inflation.

Impact of key events next week

Macro data release table

2. On-chain data analysis

1. Changes in short- and medium-term market data that affect the market this week

1.1 Stablecoin Fund Flow

Compared with last week (6/7-6/13), the stablecoin fund data this week showed that the issuance of stablecoins increased from 1.149 billion to 836 million, a decrease of 27% month-on-month, and the average daily issuance increased from 164 million to 119 million. Although the total issuance of stablecoins is still increasing, the growth rate this week has dropped significantly compared with last week. Combining the bar chart, it can be found that the peak of stablecoin issuance this week was concentrated in the first two days of the week, and then the daily issuance began to gradually decline. From the perspective of Bitcoin prices, the rapid rise at the beginning of the week and the rapid decline in prices to the shock convergence range also reflected this trend. From the overall weekly issuance volume, it can be found that this week's 836 million stablecoin issuance is at a lower-middle level compared to the 2.549 billion stablecoin issuance when the Bitcoin daily trend stabilized from 4/25 to 5-8, and the 552 million stablecoin issuance when Bitcoin initially peaked from 5/23 to 5/30. Correspondingly, the current Bitcoin price is also a relatively high-level oscillation trend, and there has been no clear breakthrough or break. However, combined with historical trends, if the subsequent stablecoin issuance continues to weaken, we need to be vigilant about the possibility of Bitcoin breaking through key support and making further corrections. At the same time, if the subsequent stablecoin issuance strengthens relative to the Bitcoin price in advance, it may also indicate that the Bitcoin price is about to break upward again.

1.2 ETF Fund Flow

This week (6/14-6/20), Bitcoin ETFs as a whole have been in a state of net inflow, with a net inflow of US$1.34085 billion, an increase of US$320.4 million compared with last week, reflecting that the investment sentiment of institutional investors and US investors this week is still good, especially at the beginning of the week, Bitcoin's daily ETF net inflow has shown a clear reversal compared with the continuous downward trend at the end of last week. The price of Bitcoin also experienced a volatile upward rebound trend at the beginning of this week, but on June 17, Bitcoin's daily net inflow hit a mid-week low, corresponding to the mid-week rebound high of around US$108,900 on the Bitcoin disk on June 17. It can be seen that institutional investors' buying interest in Bitcoin above US$108,000 has weakened, which can also be confirmed by the fact that when the price of Bitcoin fell in the next two days, the daily ETF inflow of Bitcoin returned to the higher level at the beginning of the week.

1.3 OTC Discounts and Premiums

Judging from the trend this week (6/14-6/20), the OTC premium rates of USDT and USDC accelerated upward at the beginning of the week, reflecting a small peak of OTC funds flowing back to the market at the beginning of the week. Combined with the price trend of Bitcoin and the broader market, it is possible that some OTC funds returned to the market to buy at the bottom after the market rebounded after accelerating its decline on 6/12-6/13 last weekend. Subsequently, as the broader market prices further recovered, the OTC premium rates of USDT and USDC began to fall slowly again, until June 17, when the OTC premium rates of USDT and USDC rose slightly again. It may be that a small number of OTC funds chose to enter the market due to the psychology of missing out during the continued rebound of Bitcoin, which also helped Bitcoin prices hit a weekly high. Subsequently, the OTC premium rates of USDT and USDC fell along with the Bitcoin price. In general, although the OTC premium rates of USDT and USDC have fluctuated up and down during the week, the overall trend is still bearish. The slight premium that should be seen in the bull market has not yet appeared, and the overall market sentiment is still in a conservative wait-and-see state.

1.4 MicroStrategy Purchase

This week on 2025/6/16, MicroStrategy purchased 10,100 bitcoins. It can be seen that the purchase volume this time is significantly higher than the purchase volume in previous weeks, second only to the purchase volume of 13,390 bitcoins before the last surge on 2025/5/12. From the average cost, the average cost of this purchase is 104,080. From the price of Bitcoin, it can be found that it was bought before Bitcoin surged at the beginning of this week, which to a certain extent also increased the support strength of 102,000-104,000 on the Bitcoin market.

1.5 Holdings of long-term and short-term holders

According to the data on the BTC chain, the supply of long-term holders (LTH) continues to rise and continues to hit new highs, currently reaching about 14.678 million BTC, reflecting the continued strengthening of market confidence in medium and long-term funds. A large number of BTC are locked in inactive wallets, and liquidity is further reduced. At the same time, the supply of short-term holders (STH) has been declining since the high point at the beginning of the year, hitting a low point at the end of May, indicating that the selling pressure has continued to weaken in the past few months. The supply of short-term holders (STH) began to rebound in early June, reflecting the signs of bottom-fishing by short-term holders, but it turned and fell again on June 6, while the supply of long-term holders continued to hit new highs. Therefore, it can be considered that the main selling pressure in the current market comes from short-term holders, and the main purchasing power comes from long-term holders, which also reflects the short-term consolidation or correction of Bitcoin prices but the long-term bullish trend.

2. Changes in mid-term market data that affect the market this week

2.1 Coin holding address ratio and URPD

From the perspective of the proportion of coins held by coin holding addresses, the proportion of coins held by addresses with more than 1K and less than 10K continued to decline slightly this week, while the proportion of coins held by addresses with more than 100 and less than 1K and more than 10K and less than 100K increased slightly. Overall, the proportion of coins held by addresses with more than 100 and less than 1K has been on an upward trend since the beginning of this year, while the proportion of coins held by addresses with more than 1K and less than 10K and more than 10K and less than 100K has been fluctuating downward as a whole, but the proportion of coins held by addresses with more than 10K and less than 100K is slightly stronger, reflecting that the proportion of coins held by addresses with more than 100 and less than 1K and more than 10K and less than 100K are absorbing the main selling pressure of Bitcoin.

From the perspective of URPD, there is still little overall change from June 14 to June 20 this week. The chip structure of BTC is still very stable. The chip density area of 93,000 to 98,000 US dollars has always been a strong support. At the same time, a good dense area support is formed near 103000-106000.

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Written by: Sylvia / Jim / Mat / Cage / WolfDAO

Edited by: Punko / Nora

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