Editor's Note: This article is adapted from the Bankless program "12 Big Crypto Predictions for 2026," hosted by Ryan Adams and David Hoffman. In this episode, the two hosts did not offer a single-sided "prediction," but instead attempted to outline the overall picture of the crypto industry in 2026 by comparing predictions from multiple top institutions such as Bitwise, Coinbase Institutional, Galaxy, Grayscale, CoinShares, and a16z.
Ryan: Merry Christmas, Bankless Nation! On this Christmas Eve, we decided to change things up. While there's been some activity in the crypto world this week—like the AAVE "civil war" and Nick Carter's warning about the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin—we want to talk about something bigger: a major cryptocurrency prediction for 2026. David, you did a deep meta-analysis on this, right?
David: That's right. I compiled predictions from top institutions such as Bitwise, CoinbaseInstitutional, Galaxy, and Grayscale. I divided them into three categories: those with a high degree of consensus (high consistency), those with the same general direction but different details, and those with serious disagreements.
Ryan: That's great, it saves us the time of reading dozens of reports. Let's get straight to the point: what are those consensus predictions that show "great minds think alike"?
Highly Consensus
David: Okay, before we get into the predictions, we need to talk about stablecoins. Regardless of what others think, I dare say next year will be a big year for stablecoins, a prediction almost everyone agrees on. And we have to thank our friends at M0; their on-chain stablecoin architecture is very interesting, separating currency issuance from reserve verification.
Ryan: Exactly. The current stablecoin market is too fragmented; USDC and USDT are like isolated islands. The M0 scheme aims to break this pattern. If the consensus is that stablecoins will continue to expand next year, then M0 will be in a very advantageous position.
Stablecoins become the true payment track
David: Okay, let’s look at the first “highly consistent” prediction – stablecoins will transform from mere crypto infrastructure into a real payment track.
Ryan: I agree. While there have been signs this year, the infrastructure isn't fully ready yet. The consensus is that 2026 will be the year of the payment-driven explosion . Galaxy even predicts that stablecoin trading volume will surpass ACH (Automated Clearing House).
David: Bitwise also has a rather scathing prediction: next year, at least one emerging market currency devaluation will be blamed on stablecoins, because everyone is rushing to use the US dollar on the internet.
Ryan: For ordinary users, they don't really feel like they're using stablecoins at the underlying level. Like Coinbase wallet, sending money feels as fast as using Venmo, but the underlying mechanism is actually USDC. In the future, we might be able to bypass Visa altogether when buying things, resulting in faster transactions and lower fees.
David: Do you think traditional banks like Wells Fargo will get involved? I'm currently paying a $25 fee for every transfer, it's insane.
Ryan: I doubt it. They'll most likely be disrupted by more innovative competitors. In the future, it might just be a simple "transfer" button, with stablecoins running in the background, but ordinary users won't need to understand any of that.
Asset tokenization is moving towards large-scale deployment
David: The second major trend is that asset tokenization will move from "experimental pilots" to large-scale issuance and collateral .
Ryan: Apart from BlackRock's BUIDL fund, which is already a fully-fledged product, most others are still in the pilot stage. However, Coinbase predicts that by 2026, the size of tokenized assets could surge from the current $20 billion to $400 billion.
David: What are the benefits for crypto-native users? 24/7 trading in US stocks? Or can these assets be brought into DeFi lending?
Ryan: It might be a bit slower. After all, the legal complexity of security tokenization is very high, and it's difficult to directly throw it into a protocol like Aave. 2026 might be the year of infrastructure development, while 2027 might be the year of the explosion of "security tokens entering DeFi".
ETFs experienced a full-blown surge.
David: The third is the explosion of ETFs. Bitwise predicts that more than 100 crypto-related ETFs will be listed in the US next year.
Ryan: Various altcoin ETFs and portfolio ETFs will emerge. Galaxy also predicts that net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs will exceed $50 billion. Most importantly, Bitcoin may be incorporated into mainstream asset allocation models, such as 401k retirement plans.
Market structure legislation ( ClarityAct )
David: I'm skeptical about the next one, Market Structure Legislation, which may be passed in 2026.
Ryan: I'm also 50/50. Although the Republicans are in power, 2026 is a midterm election year, and the political game will be fierce. The Democrats might use Trump's crypto business as leverage in exchange for legislation.
Predicting the market to enter the mainstream
David: Fifth, prediction markets (like Polymarket) will become mainstream. Everyone predicts that Polymarket's weekly trading volume will stabilize at over $1 billion or even $1.5 billion.
Ryan: This is more like a continuation of a trend, after all, this year's election has already proven the power of prediction markets.
Quantum computing
David: There's another very hardcore topic, the threat of quantum computing. Predictors generally believe it will become a hot topic in 2026, but it's not an imminent threat yet.
Ryan: But Nick Carter has already started sounding the alarm. He believes Bitcoin is upgrading too slowly, and if they don't start addressing the quantum threat now, it will be too late by 2030.
David: Exactly. Some people in the Bitcoin community are too convinced that "Bitcoin is digital gold" and think it doesn't need to change. But ultimately, it's software, and software can be cracked by computing power. If Bitcoin insists on not changing its code, quantum computing could really bring it to zero.
Ryan: This “rigidity” is a narrative advantage for Bitcoin, but also a weakness in the face of technological crises.
Not a completely unified prediction
Hybrid Finance
David: Finally, let's talk about "Hybrid Finance." This term was coined by CoinShares, and it essentially refers to the Wall Street Academy's approach to handling business logic on-chain.
Ryan: In other words, public blockchains serve as the settlement and composability layer, while traditional finance provides regulation, distribution, and custody. This combination is inevitable because you can't turn Apple stock into "bearer assets." What if it gets stolen by hackers? Are you going to let North Korean hackers join the board of directors?
David: Haha, that's true. So when traditional finance enters the market, smart contracts must have a reversible and operable governance layer; they can't be purely "whoever holds it owns it." But interestingly, you can build centralized applications on a decentralized foundation, but not vice versa.
Ryan: That's why cryptocurrencies are still bullish. When two distrustful countries (like the US and China) want to exchange assets, the only thing that can reassure both sides is a decentralized settlement layer.
Privacy becomes a core competitive barrier
David: Privacy is a topic of consensus. Galaxy predicts that the market capitalization of privacy tokens will exceed $100 billion by 2026. But the only ones I can think of are Monero and Zcash.
Ryan: Privacy tokens are performing very well right now, but I have a question: Is privacy a feature, or does it require a dedicated App Chain? I can use a privacy protocol to exchange my Solana for Zcash and then back again; I don't need to hold Zcash long-term.
David: a16z's viewpoint is quite insightful. They believe that privacy will be the most important "moat" in the crypto space. Whoever solves the privacy problem will be able to create a chain-level locking effect, because "secrets" are very difficult to transfer across chains.
Migration from CEX to DEX
David: Galaxy predicts that by the end of 2026, DEXs will account for more than 25% of spot trading volume.
Ryan: This is an inevitable trend. DEX fees are much lower than CEX fees, and as long as the user experience keeps up, it will be difficult for CEX's traditional trading model to maintain high interest rates. Even Coinbase is "revolutionizing itself" by using the Base Chain and integrating various DEX protocols.
Tokenomics : Value Capture Returns to Reality
David: Everyone's actually talking about the same thing: cryptographic protocols must more explicitly capture and return value. Previously, there was the "fat chain" theory, which held that value flowed to the public chain (L1); now people are talking about "fat applications," believing that value will remain at the application layer.
Ryan: But as an investor, it's quite frustrating. In traditional finance, if I buy Nvidia, I own 100% of its value. But in crypto, value is divided into on-chain tokens, off-chain company equity, and even different protocol layers. I only need to buy one asset to capture all the value.
Huge controversy
While there is consensus on many points, there is significant controversy in two core areas: DATs (Digital Asset Trusts/Companies) and market cycles.
The Future of DATs (Digital Asset Trusts)
Ryan: What are the points of disagreement among the parties regarding DATs?
David: These are practically three completely different scenarios. Coinbase is very optimistic; they believe DATs will evolve into a so-called "DAT 2.0" model. Future DATs will no longer simply be asset hoarders, but will transform into professional trading, storage, and even the purchase of "Sovereign Block Space." They believe block space is a core commodity of the digital economy.
Ryan: So, if you're a DAT company, you have to learn how to sell block space?
David: Yes. For example, if you're an Ethereum DAT, you create blocks through staking and then sell those block spaces to the market. But Galaxy's view is completely the opposite: they predict that at least five digital asset companies will be forced to sell, be acquired, or even shut down completely due to poor management.
Ryan: How do I view the grayscale?
David: Grayscale is the best. They think DATs are just a "red herring (false proposition)" and will not be an important factor in 2026.
Ryan: Actually, I don't think these three are necessarily contradictory. Perhaps one or two successful DAT companies will evolve into the 2.0 model that Coinbase talks about, while the rest, as Galaxy said, will die out. I agree with Grayscale's view that DAT is more of a "momentum tool" in a bull market; in a bear market, they can only lie dormant.
Market Cycles and Annual K-lines
Ryan: What about market cycles? Will we still follow that "four-year cycle"?
David: There are two camps here. Bitwise and Grayscale believe Bitcoin will break its four-year cycle and reach an all-time high in the first half of 2026. But Galaxy and Coinbase think 2026 will be very volatile, driven by the macro environment, and the price may only hover between $110,000 and $140,000.
Ryan: You recently wrote an article about "annual candlestick charts". What did you see in the hexagram?
David: That's interesting. If you look at Bitcoin's annual candlestick chart, it usually shows 2-3 green bars followed by 1 red bar. In 2025, we just experienced a very small red bar. There are two interpretations: either the red bar was too small, indicating that the decline hasn't been enough, and 2026 will see another red bar; or this red bar has completed the correction, and we're ready for a new round of upward movement.
Ryan: I think it's unlikely that we'll see huge red bars in 2026, or super green bars that multiply several times over like in the early days.
David: I agree. My prediction is that 2026 will likely see a "baby green" or a slightly declining red candle. The fluctuation range will be roughly between -15% and +50%.
Ethereum vs Bitcoin
Ethereum: A Tug-of-War Between Fundamentals and Valuation
David: After discussing the overall market, let's talk about these two assets. From a network perspective, 2025 is actually a good year for Ethereum. The technology roadmap is becoming clearer, ZK technology is starting to be implemented, and in the long run, Ethereum's potential advantage in quantum resistance is significantly stronger than Bitcoin's.
The problem is that these developments have not been reflected in the price of the ETH asset.
Ryan: Yes, as an asset, ETH's performance in 2025 can only be described as "terrible." Even with institutional investors like Tom Lee buying up about 3.5% of the circulating supply in just five months, the price still didn't show any significant improvement.
David: The real disagreement here isn't about the fundamentals, but about the valuation model itself. If you consider ETH as a "paid software network" and value it using the price-to-sales ratio (P/S), then the current on-chain fee revenue can only support a price of about $39.
Ryan: But if you look at Bitcoin using the same logic, the situation is even more extreme—Bitcoin doesn't even qualify as "sales revenue," it's probably only worth about $10. Because the so-called revenue ultimately goes to the miners, not the Bitcoin network itself.
David: This is precisely why the Ethereum narrative is so sharply divided. I saw a website that compiled 12 different valuation models: the most conservative price-to-sales ratio model gives a price of only $39; but the most aggressive model, based on Metcalfe's Law—that is, the number of active network addresses and the settlement volume—gives ETH a reasonable valuation of up to $9,400.
Ryan: The huge range from $40 to nearly $10,000 itself indicates that the market is waging a "valuation war." I personally agree more with Metcalfe's Law perspective because I believe ETH is essentially a monetary asset, similar to Bitcoin.
David: Those who are bearish on ETH insist that only Bitcoin deserves the title of "currency," while other public chains are at best application platforms, and therefore must be valued according to the logic of companies or software.
Ryan: This narrative conflict is amplified in a bear market. But in my view, ETH has always been a "trinity asset"—it is a smart contract platform, a settlement layer, and also competes for currency premiums.
David: In other words, if a public blockchain is to survive in the long term, its market value must come primarily from currency premiums, not transaction fee revenue.
Ryan: Exactly. In a world where the blockchain space is constantly expanding, relying solely on transaction fees cannot support a Level 1 network worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Neither Ethereum, Bitcoin, nor Solana should be considered "price-to-sales ratio assets" in essence.
David: So your conclusion is that ETH will either become the accepted currency or fall back to the $30 range?
Ryan: That's basically the idea. Where ETH ultimately lands within this valuation range depends on its market dominance as a smart contract platform.
David: Just like in 2021, when Ethereum held more than 90% of the market share, people valued it as a "store of value" worth $9,000; but if the market share shrinks, the valuation logic will shift towards a "company model".
David: I think Ethereum's market dominance has bottomed out and rebounded. While Solana performed great, it's no longer experiencing explosive growth. Ethereum, on the other hand, is seeing a resurgence in tokenization, stablecoins, and institutional access.
Ryan: Exactly. You can think of it as a tug-of-war between the "price-to-sales ratio (P/S)" and "Metcalfe's Law." If Ethereum can technically crush its competitors with ZK technology and faster block times (like reducing them to 3 seconds), its valuation will shift from a "corporation model" to a "monetary model."
David: If you look at the total value locked (TVL) multiple, Ethereum should be worth around $4,000 right now. The core issue right now is that the world is still debating how to value ETH, with the range from $40 to $10,000. In other asset classes, there are rarely such extreme valuation disagreements.
Bitcoin: The Mildest "Winter" and the Potential "Iceberg"
Ryan: Let's talk about Bitcoin. Bitcoin dropped 6% in 2025.
David: To be honest, if this is the “bear market” we’re going to experience, then it’s the mildest winter in history.
Ryan: Indeed. The US government has tried some austerity measures this year, which is bad for assets like Bitcoin that "hedge against fiat currency devaluation," so it's normal for it to drop 6%. But we all know that fiat currencies tend to go to zero in the long run, and this austerity won't last long.
David: The Bitcoin narrative was very successful in 2025, with institutional belief reaching all-time highs. But I see an "iceberg" on the horizon, particularly with quantum computing. If the market predicts an increased likelihood of quantum-based encryption breaking, Bitcoin's price will react in advance.
Ryan: I even think that if Bitcoin cannot effectively deal with the quantum threat, it will actually be the biggest boon for Ethereum.
David: You mean Bitcoin crashes and Ethereum thrives?
Ryan: In the short term, a Bitcoin crash would drag the entire crypto market down. However, in the medium to long term (one or two years), if investors discover that Ethereum has implemented quantum protection measures while Bitcoin does not, smart money will flow to more secure platforms. Bitcoin's failure does not necessarily mean the end of the entire crypto industry.
Two Visions
Ryan: Looking back on this year, I see the crypto world divided into two visions, and you need to allocate assets to both:
Vision 1: United Chains of Ethereum. This is something Bankless has always been optimistic about. All functions—value storage, privacy (Aztec), transactions (protocols on L2)—are rooted in Ethereum, a neutral settlement layer. Here, ETH is the core asset, not Bitcoin.
Vision Two: Specialized App Chains. Bitcoin is a specialized app chain responsible for "value storage," Solana for "high-frequency execution," and Zcash for "privacy." In this world, Bitcoin is the currency, and all other chains must prove their value by generating real revenue.
David: This feels a lot like a "yin-yang game". Ethereum pursues order, trying to stitch all chains together to achieve interoperability; while the other vision is chaos, with chains everywhere that are not affiliated with each other, and the only coordinator is a centralized exchange.
Ryan: This competition will continue until 2026 or even longer.
David: Okay, that's our prediction. Happy holidays everyone!
Ryan: Please remember, this is not financial advice. We're at the border, and this isn't a good time for everyone, but it's great to have you all on this bankless journey with us. Thank you!
