1. Market observation

Keywords: Arbitrum, ETH, BTC

Trump's "big and beautiful" tax cut bill is stuck in the Senate, and Republican leader John Thune is facing a serious split within the party - moderates demand to retain health benefits and renewable energy subsidies, while conservatives insist on expanding spending cuts. This contradiction makes the possibility of the bill passing before the July 4 deadline full of variables. At the same time, Trump continued to put pressure on the Federal Reserve, publicly criticizing Chairman Powell for "artificially maintaining high interest rates", claiming that the ideal interest rate should be reduced to 1%-2% (currently 4.25%-4.5%), and hinted that a successor may be nominated in advance in October. This interference in the independence of the central bank has caused concerns among economists. A survey by the Financial Times showed that more than 90% of experts believe that Trump's "excessive fiscal policy" is weakening the safe-haven status of the US dollar, and three-quarters of respondents predict that US Treasury yields will exceed 5% in the middle of next year. Despite these risks, US stocks showed resilience on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hitting record highs of 6,173.07 and 20,273.46 respectively.

Against the backdrop of the accelerated integration of traditional finance and blockchain, the crypto market is welcoming new development opportunities. Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst at HashKey, said that tokenized stocks achieve 1:1 asset anchoring through blockchain, have advantages such as 24/7 trading and low-cost settlement, and are becoming a new outlet for the integration of traditional finance and blockchain. Platforms such as Coinbase, Kraken, and Gemini are accelerating the layout of related services, and Hong Kong GF Securities has also issued the first tokenized security "GF Token" through HashKey Chain. However, its incremental value is limited, and insufficient liquidity and lack of supervision remain challenges. The dual-wheel drive of stablecoins and tokenized stocks is accelerating the attraction of institutional funds to enter the market, driving the transformation of the crypto market to practical value.

The cryptocurrency market is closely linked to the macro environment, and Bitcoin shows contradictory signals. Bitcoin broke through $108,500 in a low liquidity environment over the weekend, just one step away from the historical weekly closing high of $109,000. AlphaBTC analysts pointed out that Bitcoin is testing the $109,000 liquidity area this morning. The core issue of the current market is whether Bitcoin has enough momentum to break through this key point and stabilize the rise. At the same time, analyst Autumn Riley pointed out that the 15-minute chart presents a bullish structure of "higher lows", emphasizing that "seller pressure is gradually fading"; BitBull observed that the MACD indicator showed a golden cross, believing that "bulls are still in control of the short-term trend." However, well-known analyst Rekt Capital analyzed that if Bitcoin's historical halving cycle repeats, Bitcoin may reach a bull market peak in September or October 2025. The market is currently entering the final bull market stage, with only 2-3 months left. Bitcoin needs to re-stand above the high of the re-accumulation range at $104,400, and the multi-week downward trend line of the range is at $104,881. Looking back at 2024, Bitcoin accelerated its rise for 260 days and hit a record high before the halving, but then experienced a long adjustment period, slowing down the cycle rhythm. Although the cycle has slowed down recently, it is believed that once Bitcoin enters a rapid rise phase, it may quickly make up for this "extended cycle."

Meanwhile, Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin, with the weekly closing price above $2,500, a 7-day increase of 12.23%. CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole pointed out that Ethereum on-chain data showed a potential bullish trend, and more and more traders believed that the price of ETH could reach $3,000 in the near future. The Ethereum ecosystem also ushered in a long-awaited activeness. Stimulated by the news that the developers of the Arbitrum team will participate in the Robinhood Cannes Conference, ARB rose 17.4%.

In terms of meme coins, Moonshot launched the meme coin creation tool Moonshot Create on Friday night. Since its launch, the platform has launched multiple meme coins, including $MONKEPHONE, $PEMDAS, $MOONCOIN, $JAMIE, $CUMSHOT, $RICH and $MOONCAT. Among them, the market value of $MONKEPHONE, $MOONCOIN and $RICH is currently hovering around $7 million, and the market value of $MOONCAT is as high as $3.11 million, and is currently $1.68 million. Relatively speaking, $PEMDAS, $JAMIE and $CUMSHOT performed poorly after being launched on the platform, and their current market values ​​are less than $1 million. In addition, some projects have also gone out of independent market conditions, among which $MORI has risen for 4 consecutive days since its launch, with a market value of up to $155 million and currently $132 million. And $USELESS has continued to break new highs since June 5, with an increase of 1729.7% in the past month, and its market value exceeded $200 million today. The well-known crypto KOL Ansem also expressed optimism about it.

2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on June 30)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $108,379 (+15.67% YTD), daily spot volume $17.277 billion

• Ethereum: $2,500.45 (-25.2% YTD), with daily spot volume of $10.456 billion

• Fear of corruption index: 52 (neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.05 sat/vB ETH: 0.28 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 64.7%, ETH 9.1%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: SAHARA, BTC, ETH, PENGU, NEWT

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9739

• Sector ups and downs: L2 up 4.28%; NFT sector up 3.44%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 80,868 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$201 million, including BTC liquidation of US$63.3483 million, ETH liquidation of US$41.5813 million, and SOL liquidation of US$9.1646 million

• BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($2,500.45), lower channel line ($105048.66)

• ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($2482.56), lower channel line ($2433.40)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly within the range or in the short term, it is a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of June 27)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$501 million (14 consecutive days of net inflows)

• Ethereum ETF: +$77,447,200

4. Today’s Outlook

• Binance Wallet Exclusive TGE to Launch NodeOps (NODE) ​​on June 30

• Zama to launch testnet on July 1

• Vitalik and Offchain Labs CSO to participate in Robinhood’s fireside chat in Cannes on July 1

• The US Senate votes on the Beautiful Bill. (June 30, 21:00)

• The presidents of the world's major central banks (Fed Chairman Powell, European Central Bank President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Bank of Korea Governor Chang-yong Lee) held a group meeting. (July 1, 21:30)

• Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 30, accounting for 0.67% of the current circulation and worth approximately $17.4 million.

• Kamino (KMNO) will unlock approximately 229 million tokens at 8 pm on June 30, accounting for 10.44% of the current circulation and worth approximately $13.8 million.

• Across Protocol (ACX) will unlock approximately 100 million tokens at 8 pm on June 30, accounting for 22.61% of the current circulation and worth approximately US$13.5 million.

• Sui (SUI) will unlock about 44 million tokens at 8 am on July 1, accounting for 1.3% of the current circulation, worth about $122.8 million;

The biggest gainers in the top 500 by market capitalization today: Humanity Protocol (H) up 103.83%, Launch Coin (LAUNCHCOIN) up 32.17%, Shentu (CTK) up 21.58%, Useless Coin (USELESS) up 19.71%, and Arbitrum (ARB) up 17.82%.

5. Hot News

• Data: SUI, ENA, OP and other tokens will usher in large amounts of unlocking, of which SUI unlocking value is about 122.8 million US dollars

• Macro Outlook This Week: Non-farm Payrolls Coming, Trump Continues to “Play” with the Market

• This week's preview | Singapore requires unlicensed exchanges to stop operating before June 30; Sui (SUI) unlocks tokens worth about $120 million

• The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 81.9%.

• Binance Alpha Launches Fuel Network (FUEL) Airdrop for Users Holding at Least 170 Binance Alpha Points

• AguilaTrades has started rolling over its floating profits and has increased its long Bitcoin position to $216 million

• Report: 27% of Koreans aged 20-50 hold cryptocurrencies, 70% interested in expanding their investments

• Report: RWA market size increased by 85% year-on-year to US$24 billion, becoming the second fastest growing sector after stablecoins

• U.S. Senate votes to pass procedural motion to advance "big and beautiful" bill

• a16z transferred another 100,000 COMP to Coinbase Prime 8 hours ago, and transferred out a total of 400,000 COMP in the last 21 hours.

• Data: BlackRock has increased its Bitcoin holdings for 9 consecutive weeks, with the total amount reaching about 107,139

• Endless Clouds Foundation announces END token economics: total supply 500 million, 17.5% airdropped

• Arthur Hayes deposited 2.468 million ETHFI into CEX and earned $1.02 million

• Chairman of the U.S. Digital Asset Financial Advisory Committee: Cryptocurrency allocation in investment portfolios can be increased to 10-40%

• The Trump team transferred a total of approximately $20.5 million of Trump to Binance and OKX

• Moonshot launches memecoin creation tool Moonshot Create

This article is supported by HashKey, the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat currency portal in Asia. HashKey Exchange is committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform security.