The geopolitical disturbance has ended, the expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, funds have returned significantly, mainstream currencies have returned to high levels, altcoins have stopped falling and stabilized, and the market is ready to take off

Macro risks have decreased and sentiment has improved significantly:

The Iran-Israel war ended, expectations of a Fed rate cut increased significantly, and the Nasdaq hit a new high.

Funding momentum has rebounded significantly and will continue to improve:

ETFs returned to weekly net inflows of US$1.7 billion, the issuance of stablecoins accelerated, and the USDT premium rose, showing a turning trend.

The mainstream currencies are strong, BTC is stabilizing, and ETH is making up for the rise:

BTC fluctuated strongly at a high level, ETH followed the rise but with slightly weaker momentum, and concept stocks in the cryptocurrency circle flourished.

The liquidity of the Shanzhai has improved marginally but failed to rise:

TOTAL2's rebound was blocked and then pulled back, OTHERS' market share stopped falling and fluctuated, and the on-chain prosperity and decline value was 53, and it has not yet emerged from the weak channel.

It is currently at the end of consolidation, and in the short term we need to wait for funds to break through and cooperate, and patiently observe the signs of the strengthening of the copycat structure and the return of funds to mainstream currencies.

1. Macro and market environment

• In the second half of 2025, the U.S. economy will shift from moderate growth to a slowdown, with weak retail sales and employment data indicating weakening consumption and investment momentum;
• Inflation rose slightly due to tariffs and oil prices, but it is still within the controllable range of the Federal Reserve;
• The uncertainty of tariff policy has been reduced, with targeted tariff increases and exemptions coexisting.

2. Analysis of capital flows & market structure of mainstream currencies

External Funding Flows

• ETF funds: 1.7 billion inflows this week, a significant increase in inflows
• Stablecoins: 1.8 billion new coins were issued this week, with an average daily increase of 263 million coins, and the issuance level is relatively high.

Market sentiment indicators

• OTC premium: Stablecoin premium continues to rise

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Technical aspect: 106000 is in strong fluctuation
• On-chain chip distribution: little change compared to last week, 10.3w is a strong short-term support

Ethereum (ETH)

• Trend on BTC: ETH/BTC remains volatile, and funds flow back to BTC first.
• On-chain changes: active addresses increased and market sentiment improved.

Macroeconomic Review

Economy: Moderate growth with risks of weakening

The US economy is currently showing resilience, but its potential weakness cannot be ignored. Employment data showed that non-farm employment increased by 100,000 to 150,000 per month in the past two months, which was better than expected. The unemployment rate remained stable at a low level of 4.2%, and the overall labor market was stable. However, the previous non-farm data was revised downward continuously, the number of initial and continued unemployment benefits exceeded the upper limit of the range, and the number of layoffs by challengers also remained at a high level in recent years, suggesting that there is a concern about the weakening of the employment market. Consumption data also reflects a polarized trend: service consumption maintains momentum, with actual personal consumption expenditures increasing by 0.3% per month; but commodity consumption is weak, with retail sales in May turning sharply negative to -0.9% per month, mainly due to the weakening momentum of bulk commodities such as automobiles, construction and gardening after the pre-tariff rush subsided. Overall, the US economy is expected to slow down in the second half of the year, and the risk of slowing growth has increased.

Tariffs: Uncertainty reduced, policies more targeted

The uncertainty of tariff policy is gradually decreasing. After the reciprocal tariff exemption expired on July 9, the Trump administration released more details, showing that the policy tends to be conditional tariff increase rather than full pressure. Reciprocal tariffs are likely to be extended to avoid direct high tax rates; industrial tariffs are not levied across the board. For example, non-steel and aluminum products can be exempted from 50% high tariffs and only 10% reciprocal tariffs are applicable. The USMCA duty-free channel is retained (Canada's compliance with the USMCA ratio has increased from 38% to 50%). Semiconductor tariffs may adopt a similar model, taking into account both tariff increases and exemptions. Overall, the impact of tariffs is becoming more controllable, and the impact on the economy and inflation is limited.

Neutral interest rate

The market currently predicts a 25bp rate cut on September 17, 2025, and three rate cuts in 2025 to 3.75%, with the neutral interest rate falling to 3.25%. Whether to start cutting rates in July is currently the focus of the game between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration. Currently, Trump's tariff deadline of July 9 will be extended by another 90 days, which has become a long-term game. The tariff recession is slowly beginning to show. At the same time, the Federal Reserve continued to QT 9.5 billion in Week 25. In the past month, the Federal Reserve continued to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and tighten liquidity, resulting in bullish fluctuations in the M2 float BTC over the past period of time.

Impact of key events next week

Macro data release table

2. On-chain data analysis

1. Changes in short- and medium-term market data that affect the market this week

1.1 Stablecoin Fund Flow

Compared with last week, the stablecoin funding data this week (6/21-6/27) shows that the issuance of stablecoins has increased from 836 million to 1.839 billion, up 119% month-on-month, and the average daily issuance has increased from 119 million to 263 million. It can be seen that the issuance of stablecoins this week has accelerated significantly compared with last week. From the bar chart, it can be seen that the issuance of stablecoins this week has also shown a trend of continuous acceleration. Combined with the fact that the price of Bitcoin hit a low point at the beginning of the week, it has continued to rebound and rise, which once again confirms this trend. At present, the price of Bitcoin can be considered to have reached the previous high area of the price pattern again. Whether it can continue to break through in the future depends on whether the issuance of stablecoins next week can continue to maintain this acceleration trend.

1.2 ETF Fund Flow

This week (6/21-6/27), Bitcoin ETFs as a whole still showed a net inflow, and the net inflow amount was US$1.72122 billion, an increase of US$380.37 million compared with last week. Although the price of Bitcoin fell to a recent low last weekend, the inflow of Bitcoin ETFs after the opening of this Monday still maintained the strong trend of last week, which also reflects the long-term optimism of institutional investors and American investors for Bitcoin. From an overall perspective, although the price of Bitcoin is still in a high-level oscillation state after the false break last weekend, the inflow of Bitcoin ETFs has shown a continuous growth trend in recent weeks. If the growth trend of Bitcoin ETF inflows can continue in the future, it will further support Bitcoin prices and market sentiment, and help Bitcoin continue to break through.

1.3 OTC Discounts and Premiums

This week (6/21-6/27), the trend of USDT and USDC OTC premium rates is similar to that of last week. They both accelerated to around 100% at the beginning of the week and then fell slightly, reflecting a peak of OTC fund reflux at the beginning of the week. Judging from the recent trend of the structural market, this trend may also be related to the recent volatility or downward volatility of the market. Whenever the market returns to the lower boundary of the volatility or slightly falls below the lower boundary, OTC funds will begin to flow back to buy the bottom, thereby causing the USDT and USDC OTC premium rates to rise in the short term. Overall, the trend of the USDT and USDC OTC premium rates has changed from a slight downward trend to a horizontal oscillation, but there is still no slight premium that should be seen in the bull market stage, and the overall market sentiment is still conservative.

1.4 Bitcoin Exchange Balance

From the perspective of the Bitcoin exchange balance in the past year, it can be found that the Bitcoin exchange balance in the past year has basically shown an inverse trend with the Bitcoin price. When the exchange balance falls, the Bitcoin price rises, when it is sideways, the Bitcoin price fluctuates at a high level, and when it turns slightly upward, the Bitcoin price falls. For this week, the Bitcoin exchange balance is still in a smooth downward trend, so it will be conducive to continuing the bullish trend of Bitcoin.

1.5 Holdings of long-term and short-term holders

According to the data on the BTC chain, there have been some changes this week. The holdings of long-term holders began to decline slightly after reaching a high of 14.705 million BTC on June 22. At the same time, the holdings of short-term holders also began to rise after reaching 2.249 million BTC on June 22. It can be seen that the rebound of Bitcoin this week was mainly driven by short-term holders. Therefore, in the short term, we need to be vigilant about the risk of a correction after the short-term rebound ends. The stability and rise of Bitcoin's long-term price mainly depends on the continued increase in holdings by long-term holders. Therefore, we will continue to pay attention to when the turning point of the decline in holdings of long-term holders will appear.

2. Changes in mid-term market data that affect the market this week

2.1 Coin holding address ratio and URPD

From the perspective of the proportion of coins held by coin holding addresses, the proportion of coins held by addresses with a holding amount greater than 100 and less than 1K this week still maintained an upward trend and continued to hit new highs, while the proportion of coins held by addresses with a holding amount greater than 10K and less than 100K showed a slight decline, and the proportion of coins held by addresses with a holding amount greater than 1k and less than 10k tended to fluctuate slightly sideways. Therefore, overall, this week, the coin holding addresses with a holding amount greater than 100 and less than 1K are absorbing the selling pressure from the coin holding addresses with a holding amount greater than 10K and less than 100K and those with a holding amount greater than 1K and less than 10K.

According to URPD, the chip concentration area of BTC has not changed much this week, with support ranging from US$93,000 to US$98,000 and US$100,500 to US$105,000.

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Written by: Sylvia / Jim / Mat / Cage / WolfDAO

Edited by: Punko / Nora

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