Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
1. Market Observation
On the last day of 2025, global financial markets exhibited risk aversion amid the pre-New Year's holiday trading atmosphere. Japanese and South Korean stock markets were closed, while European and American stock and bond markets closed early, resulting in a significant tightening of liquidity. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting revealed that although the FOMC agreed to cut interest rates, there was significant internal disagreement regarding the interest rate path for 2026. The dot plot suggested only one or two rate cuts, while the market was still aggressively pricing in approximately 60 basis points of rate cuts. Officials considered future decisions to be a "delicate balance." Meanwhile, the precious metals market suffered a severe blow. The CME Group raised margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures for the second time in a week, causing spot silver to plummet by over 9% to below $71, gold to a low of $4273, palladium to fall by over 7%, and platinum to drop by over 11%. Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, points out that silver is overvalued based on the silver-to-oil ratio. However, Charlie Garcia, founder of R360, counters that the CME's measures are merely a "speed bump," and that China's new silver export controls, effective January 1, 2026, will lead to a sharp reduction in global supply—this is the long-term logic. Juan Carlos Artigas of the World Gold Council predicts that if geopolitical tensions worsen, gold prices could reach $5,000 in 2026; conversely, if the economy improves, prices may correct by 5% to 20%.
Bitcoin traded between $88,500 and $94,500 in December. If it closes below $90,000 today, it will mark the third consecutive month of decline. Killa stated that if Bitcoin breaks below the week's opening price ($87,952), it could target $86,300 or even $84,400. Ted and Lennart Snyder both consider $90,000 a key resistance level; a break below $87,000 support would likely lead to a retest of the $84,000 to $85,000 range. Castillo Trading believes the current wide trading range is favorable for swing traders. Despite CryptoQuant data showing a negative Coinbase premium and weak demand, institutions and giants have been active: Japanese listed company Metaplanet increased its holdings by 4,279 BTC in Q4, bringing its total holdings to 35,000 BTC; Bitfinex whales' long positions reached a two-year high. Citigroup predicts a base target of $143,000 for Bitcoin. On the technical charts, several analysts, including Dami-Defi, point out that Bitcoin has formed patterns such as a symmetrical triangle and a descending expanding wedge. If it can break through the key resistance level of $90,000, the upside target could reach $107,000 or even $122,000. James Bull even considers this a "Christmas bear trap," believing that a new high will be reached in 2026.
Ethereum's price is hovering between $2,900 and $3,000. Lennaert Snyder noted that ETH rebounded after testing the $2,900 liquidity level, and a short position would be considered if it fails to break the $3,076 high; conversely, a long position would be attempted if it retraces to $2,800. Ted emphasized that a break above $3,000 is necessary to open up further upside potential. Astronomer is strongly bullish on ETH, believing that it has held its weekly low for six consecutive weeks and that $5,000 is imminent. On-chain data supports this optimism, with ValidatorQueue showing that the number of Ethereum validators queuing to enter has exceeded the number exiting for the first time in six months; historically, this phenomenon has been accompanied by a doubling of price. Titan of Crypto points out that $2,750 is a key watershed, with a technical pattern similar to the eve of the Q4 2024 rally. However, Murphy cautioned retail investors that although large funds have increased their positions in the $2,700-$3,100 range, only two of its four criteria, which include sentiment, structure, and cost, are currently met, and the optimal bottom-fishing score has not yet been achieved.
Recently, ETF applications have become a focus. Grayscale has applied to the SEC to convert the Bittensor Trust into a spot ETF (ticker symbol GTAO), while Bitwise has submitted applications for 11 cryptocurrency ETFs, including AAVE, UNI, ZEC, CC, ENA, HYPE, NEAR, STRK, SUI, TAO, and TRX. In addition, Canton Network (CC) has received considerable attention recently, with a gain of over 75% since December and an 18% increase in the past 24 hours. The long-awaited Lighter has finally launched, completing its TGE and conducting a $675 million airdrop; its market capitalization is currently hovering around $2.7 billion. The ElizaOS founder's X account, which was suspended in June, has finally been unblocked, causing the token ELIZAOS to surge by over 200% in a short period, although the gain has since fallen back to 80%.
2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on December 31)
(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)
Bitcoin: $88,488 (down 5.45% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $39.23 billion.
Ethereum: $2,977 (-10.84% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $17.82 billion.
Fear of Greed Index: 21 (Fear)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei
Market share: BTC 59.1%, ETH 12%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: BTC, XRP, ETH, POLYX, ZBT
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 50.48% / 49.52%
Sector Performance: Most crypto stocks rose, with SocialFi up over 3%, while Layer 2 and DeFi sectors saw slight declines.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 51,836 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $114 million. This included $38.5 million in BTC liquidations, $30.11 million in ETH liquidations, and $5.07 million in LIT liquidations.
3. ETF Flows (as of December 30)
Bitcoin ETF: +$355 million, turning from net outflow to net inflow after 7 consecutive days of outflows.
Ethereum ETF: Inflow of $67.8366 million; none of the nine ETFs saw net outflows.
Solana ETF: +$5.21 million
XRP ETF: +15.55 million USD
4. Today's Outlook
Stable pre-deposit program Phase 2 withdrawals are now open.
Hats Finance will cease its centralized hosting front-end and server operations on December 31.
US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27 (in thousands): Previous: 214,000; Expected: 215,000.
Warren Buffett has officially stepped down, and Abel will take over as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (January 1, 2026).
During the New Year's Day holiday, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, UK stocks, and Japanese and South Korean stocks will be closed, as will the China Financial Futures Exchange and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange.
The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Canton Network up 15.4%, Chiliz up 10.6%, MemeCore up 9.5%, DoubleZero up 7.3%, and Story up 6.4%.
5. Hot News
Arthur Hayes has just withdrawn tokens worth approximately $2 million.
Analysis: In 2025, only about 12% of public token sales will still be above the issue price.
LIT launched with a $675 million airdrop, and $30 million has already been withdrawn from Lighter.
Sui announced that it will launch a private transaction feature in 2026.
