Trading Moments: Copper and nickel surge, gold pulls back, Bitcoin encounters resistance at 95,000 and may pull back before rising again.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

At the macroeconomic level, the global market exhibited strong risk appetite at the start of 2026. In the technology sector, Nvidia CFO Colette Kress stated that the company's revenue would far exceed the expected $500 billion. Meanwhile, the release of its open-source autonomous driving AI model, Alpamayo, sparked discussions with Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who believes that solving the "long tail problem" of autonomous driving remains a core challenge. Perhaps boosted by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's comments at CES regarding the explosive growth in data storage demand in the age of artificial intelligence, the memory semiconductor sector collectively surged, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 49,500 points for the first time . Although gold prices briefly rebounded to $4,500 per ounce today, they subsequently dragged down the overall precious metals market, with spot silver and spot palladium recording declines of over 3% and 5%, respectively. However, the non-ferrous metals market experienced a comprehensive surge, with LME nickel futures jumping over 10% at one point, hitting a 19-month high, due to Indonesia's planned production cuts; LME copper futures broke through $13,000 per ton, reaching a record high , driven by supply concerns and increased demand from electrification . Citigroup has raised its first-quarter target price to $14,000. The upcoming decision by the United States on copper tariffs further exacerbates the tight global supply situation.

Geopolitically, after effectively controlling Venezuela, Trump announced the acquisition of up to 50 million barrels of oil from the country for sale, causing international oil prices to fall . Analysts believe that lower oil prices will create an anti-inflationary environment, providing more room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The market widely expects Trump to appoint a dovish chairman to push interest rates down to 1%. Furthermore, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned that the 2025 stock market rally is largely a "pricing illusion" caused by the depreciation of fiat currencies relative to gold. If priced in gold, the S&P 500 actually fell last year. He pointed out that geopolitical risks and US unilateralism are prompting global capital to shift to non-US markets and physical assets such as gold . Looking ahead, Dalio predicts that the US will face intense political conflict over wealth distribution in 2027-2028 , and the market is closely watching upcoming labor market data for further clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.

Bitcoin experienced a strong rebound in early 2026, briefly surpassing $94,000 before falling below $93,000. Analyst Lark Davis believes this surge was driven by multiple positive factors: the end of the US year-end tax-loss sell-off season, massive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and market expectations of the Federal Reserve's impending shift to looser monetary policy. Key technical levels have become the focus of the market, with analysts generally believing there is significant selling pressure in the $94,000 to $95,000 range. Traders Skew and Exitpump have respectively identified "passive sellers" and "large sell orders" at this level. A successful breakout could see liquidity reach $98,000, while Michaël van de Poppe predicts Bitcoin will move towards $100,000 after a brief pullback. On the downside, analysts Tai Bai and Man of Bitcoin have identified support levels around $90,500 and $90,874, respectively. On-chain data and the derivatives market are also showing positive signs. Data from Capriole Investments shows that institutions have bought 76% more Bitcoin than miners have produced in the same period over eight consecutive days. Historically, this metric has predicted an average price increase of 109%.

A Glassnode indicator suggests the market may have bottomed out in November 2025, with significant upside potential remaining. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that options market traders are refocusing on call contracts expiring at the end of January with a strike price of $100,000. Furthermore, MSCI's decision to retain companies like Strategy, which hold Bitcoin, in its indices has alleviated a major market concern.

Ethereum also performed well, with its price rising 10% in January to reach $3,300, testing the key 200-period EMA. Technical analysis shows that a potential "double bottom" pattern is forming on the Ethereum daily chart. If a breakout is confirmed, the target price could be $3,900, representing an upside of approximately 20% from current levels. Analyst Tai Bai points out that the current price is encountering resistance in the $3,275 range, and a pullback to around $3,095 could be a potential buying opportunity. Man of Bitcoin, on the other hand, believes the key support level is at $3,040. On-chain data shows that CryptoQuant's Cumulative Volume Difference (CVD) indicates active buying from retail and leveraged markets, but Hyblock Capital's data reveals a divergence: large investors (whales) with holdings over $100,000 were net sellers this week, suggesting that this rebound is primarily driven by retail investors. More importantly, Ethereum's staking dynamics have undergone a fundamental shift. According to data from Beaconcha.in, the validator exit queue has dropped to near zero for the first time, indicating that potential selling pressure has largely dried up. Meanwhile, institutions led by BitMine are aggressively staking, having staked a total of 659,219 ETH worth $2.1 billion, pushing the staking queue to its highest level since mid-November last year. Regarding network fundamentals, Ethereum recently completed its second "Blob-only" hard fork, increasing the Blob limit to 21, effectively enhancing the scalability of the L2 network and reducing transaction costs. The "Glamsterdam" hard fork, aimed at further improving network throughput, is also on the agenda.

In the altcoin market, the Solana ecosystem is extremely active. According to Dune data, its Launchpad saw over 25,000 token creations per day for five consecutive days, with Pump.fun dominating the list. However, the frenzy surrounding meme coins is accompanied by significant risks. The recently popular Japanese internet meme coin $114514 , after its market capitalization soared to $57 million, plummeted 94% overnight to $2.7 million, causing heavy losses for many who bought at the peak. This surge may be driven by market expectations of Japan's 2026 cryptocurrency tax reform. Regarding Solana itself, analyst Murphy points out that despite the price correction, its holdings structure shows 77% of the circulating supply concentrated in the $120-$200 range, forming a solid support level. Meanwhile, whale addresses have actively accumulated shares during this correction, with an average cost of approximately $133, constituting an important price floor.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on January 7)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap, GMGN)

Bitcoin: $92,811 (year-to-date +5.8%), daily spot trading volume $60.64 billion.
Ethereum: $3,252 (year-to-date +9.2%), daily spot trading volume $28.63 billion.
Fear of Greed Index: 42 (Neutral)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 12.1%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: BREV, 0G, BTC, ETH, SOL
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.68% / 50.32%
Sector Performance: The crypto market saw a slight pullback, while DePIN and AI sectors bucked the trend and rose.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 102,599 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $372 million. This included $125 million in BTC liquidations, $72.34 million in ETH liquidations, and $30.08 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of January 6)

Bitcoin ETFs: -$243 million, with only BlackRock IBIT recording net inflows.
Ethereum ETF: +$115 million, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows.
XRP ETF: +$19.12 million
SOL ETF: +$9.22 million

4. Today's Outlook

Binance Wallet exclusively lists TGE tranche 44 on ZenChain (ZTC), subscription opens on January 7th.
ZKsync will discontinue Etherscan support on January 7th and fully transition to a native block explorer.
XMAQUINA will be partnering with Virtuals for a final public offering of $DEUS on January 8th, with an initial price of $0.06.
US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3 (in thousands): Expected 212,000, previous 199,000 (January 9, 21:30)

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Rain (up 11.3%), MemeCore (up 7.1%), Pump.fun (up 2.3%), Virtuals Protocol (up 2.2%), and Cosmos (up 2%).