PANews reported on December 25th that Axel Adler Jr., a Bitcoin researcher at CryptoQuant, released a new analysis stating that Bitcoin has fallen 19.7% (approximately $21,500) over the past three months and 10.5% (approximately $10,400) year-to-date, showing a significant correction trend. Although the price has stabilized in the short term (up 1.5% weekly, down 0.5% monthly), the monthly RSI indicator shows weakening market momentum, currently at 56.5, falling below the 12-month moving average (67.3) for the first time, and only 2 points away from the 4-year moving average (58.7).

Historically, a drop in RSI below the 4-year moving average typically foreshadows a deeper bear market. Adler points out that the next 1-2 months are crucial; if the RSI can remain between 55 and 58, Bitcoin may recover; however, a sustained drop below 55 could signal a deeper downtrend. Investors should closely monitor the RSI's performance to determine whether the market is in a correction phase or has entered a deeper downtrend.