Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
1. Market Observation
Driven by escalating geopolitical conflicts in Venezuela, Greenland, and Iran, global assets are undergoing a new round of revaluation. Spot gold has broken through the $4,600 mark, accumulating a $280 gain in the first month of the new year, while spot silver has broken through $84 per ounce, setting a new historical high, with intraday gains approaching 5%. Although the annual rebalancing of indices such as the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) may bring short-term selling pressure of approximately $5 billion, analysts generally believe that gold, as the ultimate safe haven in geopolitics, and silver, with its increasingly tight supply driven by industrial and investment demand, have solid long-term fundamentals. The market even anticipates gold prices to hit $5,000 and silver prices to break through $100.
Against this turbulent backdrop, the Federal Reserve's actions have become a focal point. The Fed's balance sheet recently expanded by $105 billion, the largest expansion since 2022, and Chairman Powell is facing a criminal investigation by the U.S. Attorney's Office regarding renovation funds. Despite the complex macroeconomic environment, Goldman Sachs ' chief U.S. economist, David Mericle, remains optimistic in his 2026 outlook report, predicting U.S. GDP growth of 2.8%, higher than the market consensus of 2%, and expecting inflation to moderate to 2.1%. He anticipates the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September, believing that economic growth will be driven more by productivity gains fueled by artificial intelligence and other factors. Meanwhile, the Trump administration's geopolitical moves, including its tough stance on Iran and judicial rulings regarding tariffs, have added further uncertainty to the market.
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $92,000, still unable to break through the $95,000 resistance level. On the bullish side, BitBull points out that the weekly RSI has broken through the downtrend line, predicting the price may reach $103,000 to $105,000 in the next 3 to 4 weeks. Traders James Easton and Skew also observed bullish divergence and buying power, believing that the $90,000 support level is solid. MartyParty analysis suggests that Bitfinex whales are closing out long positions, which is usually a signal of the bottom of a Wyckoff "spring," suggesting this could foreshadow a significant rally similar to the 50% surge in early 2025, targeting $135,000. CryptoQuant data also shows that increased retail holdings indicate a maturing market cycle.
However, the risk of short selling remains. Doctor Profit points out that the market has formed three bearish structures simultaneously, believing that $70,000 is a target that will be reached sooner or later, and notes that insiders have been selling since August. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer, through power law analysis, points out that if the market enters a consolidation phase in 2026, $65,000 will be a "life-or-death line," and it may even test the $45,000 trend line. Murphy, through options gamma data analysis, points out that $90,000 and $88,000 are strong support zones, but there is a large amount of short gamma at $92,000, and once a breakout fails, it is very easy to be pulled back down.
Ethereum 's market sentiment and technical indicators are showing characteristics similar to those preceding the last major surge. Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan points out that although ETH has fallen 36% from its all-time high to around $3089, the sluggish social media sentiment is reminiscent of the period before last year's surge, and its status as the "second-largest market capitalization" has been reaffirmed by the market. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes the ETH/BTC exchange rate bottomed out last April, and its price movement, supported by the doubling of stablecoin market capitalization and developer activity, replicates the 2019 cycle. Technically, Dami-Defi points out that a symmetrical triangle is forming on the daily chart, with a breakout imminent; Ted is optimistic that it will hold the $3000 support level and move towards $3500-$3600; however, Lennaert Snyder remains cautious, believing that if it fails to break through the $3308 high, it may fall back to test the monthly opening price of $2970. Currently, the market as a whole remains in a "fear" zone, and ETH's subsequent movement will heavily depend on whether it can effectively break through the current technical resistance.
Regarding altcoins and market dynamics, the Solana ecosystem seems to be receiving significant positive news from the community. Following renowned trader Eugene's prediction that SOL would rise to $160, Nikita Bier, product manager of the X platform and Solana advisor, revealed that X will launch the "Smart Cashtags" feature next month , allowing users to specify specific assets or smart contracts when posting stock tickers. Solana officials also stated that "X's new feature will allow users to directly view Solana token price charts and news." Although the SOL price reached $144, its weekly active wallet count has decreased from 30.2 million to 7.3 million.
Furthermore, news of policy easing emerged from the South Korean market, with the Financial Services Commission ending a nine-year ban and allowing listed companies to invest in cryptocurrencies. Both of these developments are widely considered by the market as significant positive support for crypto assets.
The meme cryptocurrency sector has experienced a rapid rotation from English to Japanese, then to Chinese, and finally to Sichuan dialect. Over the weekend, the BNB Chain Foundation spent $200,000 to purchase Chinese memes such as "Binan Life," "Hakimi," "I'm Here," and "Laozi." Although the market capitalization of "Binan Life" briefly surged to $188 million, the market speculated that this might signal a temporary peak in the sector's performance, perhaps following Justin Sun's statement that Huobi would follow the Chinese meme trend. Chinese meme cryptocurrencies like "I'm Here" and "Laozi" have seen declines exceeding 20% in the past 24 hours. Currently, the Chinese meme market is still primarily driven by He Yi, CZ, and BNB Chain. (*Note: This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research.)
2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on January 12)
(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)
Bitcoin: $92,022 (year-to-date +4.8%), daily spot trading volume $29.78 billion.
Ethereum: $3,158 (year-to-date +6.1%), daily spot trading volume $15.02 billion.
Fear of Greed Index: 27 (Fear)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 12.1%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, IP, ETH, SOL
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 9.25% / 50.75%
Sector Performance: The crypto market sector saw some gains, while the AI sector rose 2.12%.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 60,248 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $139 million. Among them, $27.69 million was liquidated in BTC, $21.5 million in ETH, and $12.34 million in SOL.
3. ETF Flows (as of January 9)
Bitcoin ETF: Net outflow of $681 million last week
Ethereum ETF: Net outflow of $68.57 million last week
XRP ETF: Net inflow of $38.07 million last week
SOL ETF: Net inflow of $41.08 million last week
4. Today's Outlook
Zama: A public auction will be launched on January 12, 2026, to sell 10% of ZAMA tokens.
Binance Wallet launches exclusive Unitas (UP) Booster and Token Offering (TGE) events.
Fogo announced that 38.98% of its tokens will be unlocked on January 13th when the network launches.
Cheelee (CHEEL) will unlock approximately 20.81 million tokens on January 13th at 8:00 AM, representing 2.78% of the circulating supply, with a value of approximately $11.6 million.
JPMorgan Chase kicks off the quarterly earnings season for major U.S. banks (January 13).
Ahead of the month-end interest rate meeting, Williams and several other Federal Reserve officials made a series of statements (January 13, 07:00).
US December CPI year-on-year: Expected 2.7%, previous value 2.7% (January 13, 21:30)
The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Story (up 26.3%), Monero (up 15.3%), Canton Network (up 13.8%), MYX Finance (up 10.3%), and Render (up 9.8%).
