No interest rate cut in July is almost certain, the market focuses on Bitcoin 109,000 and Ethereum 2,500 US dollars | Hashkey trading time

1. Market observation

Keywords: ETF, ETH, BTC

The market is focused on the Fed's interest rate policy. Although recent inflation data show signs of cooling, many Fed officials, including Chairman Powell, have said that more time is needed to observe to confirm that the price increases that may be triggered by tariffs will not evolve into persistent inflation, so they are cautious about cutting interest rates at the July meeting. Officials generally believe that the current monetary policy is in a good position and there is no need to rush to adjust before the economic outlook becomes clear. Most views tend to consider cutting interest rates this fall or later. This uncertainty stems from the dependence on future data and the cautious assessment of external factors (such as tariffs). Although the labor market has shown signs of slowing down, it has not yet shown obvious signs of weakness, which provides support for the Fed's patience. On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, led by technology stocks and bank stocks, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index closed near record highs. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 7-year Treasury yield falling below 4.0%, and the U.S. dollar index fell for the fourth consecutive day, hitting its lowest level in three years. Market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at least twice this year have strengthened.

In terms of regulation, the Hong Kong government released the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0" yesterday. Xiao Feng, chairman of HashKey Group, believes that this marks the entry of Hong Kong's digital assets into a new stage of "institutionalization, scale, and globalization." The policy clearly states that the stablecoin licensing system will be implemented in 2025, promoting the tokenization of real-world assets, and providing tax incentives for tokenized ETFs and funds to attract international capital. Through the regulatory framework, asset penetration and tax competitiveness, Hong Kong is becoming a new hub for the global digital economy.

Bitcoin prices have recently rebounded nearly 10% from $98,188, but the current rally has slowed. Today, the largest Bitcoin and Ethereum options this year expired, with Bitcoin options having a notional value of $15 billion and a maximum pain point of $102,000; while Ethereum options have a notional value of $2.3 billion and a maximum pain point of $2,200, which may exacerbate short-term volatility. According to Glassnode analysis, Bitcoin prices are currently driven mainly by macro news and have strong support in the $93,000 to $100,000 range, but both on-chain transfers and spot trading volumes are on a downward trend, and cautious sentiment in the futures market is also heating up, indicating that the market lacks the momentum to break new highs before demand recovers. If prices fall below this range, it may trigger a deeper correction. Trustnodes' analysis also pointed out that the postponement of the Fed's expected rate cut is an important reason for the stagnation of Bitcoin prices.

In this context, several analysts said that Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance range of $108,000 to $110,000 and turn it into support in order to enter a new price discovery phase and achieve higher goals. CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent said that the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) of Bitcoin has weakened, but this does not mean a downward trend, but may be a signal of the late bull market cycle. The current MVRV ratio is 2.22, which is lower than the historical high valuation range (above 3.7), indicating that there is still room for growth. If the MVRV momentum increases, coupled with the support of ETF fund inflows, the price of Bitcoin may break through the current high of $112,000 and even reach more than $165,000. Alva emphasized that a real breakthrough needs to be accompanied by high trading volume to stand at $107,500. In addition, analyst AlphaBTC believes that Bitcoin may need to make great efforts to break through the 108-110K level. He believes that Bitcoin may pull back to the 105-104K range near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement line in the near future to absorb the liquidity accumulated during the recent rise. The market will then see if there is enough momentum to push Bitcoin to a new high, or if it may face a deeper adjustment. He pointed out: "If the price closes above $109,000 in four hours, it may usher in a new historical high." Analyst Rekt Capital and MN Capital founder also said that breaking through the resistance of $108,877 and $108,924 is the key to Bitcoin's further rise.

For Ethereum, analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that $2,200 is the macro bottom, and the price needs to effectively return to above $2,500 to start a stronger rebound. In addition, the on-chain market has been cold. Recently, Pult, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency of the United States, ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to accept cryptocurrencies as mortgage assets, which promoted the emergence of "home purchase narratives" on the chain. The market value of the associated Meme token $farthouse has risen to $4.3 million and has now fallen back to $2 million.

2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on June 27)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

Bitcoin: $107,432 (+14.64% YTD), daily spot volume $20.96 billion
Ethereum: $2,439.40 (-26.91% YTD), with daily spot volume of $10.53 billion
Fear of Greed Index: 65 (Greed)
Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB ETH: 0.65 Gwei
Market share: BTC 65.1%, ETH 9.0%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, SAHARA, MOVE, BTC, ETH
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9826
Sector gains and losses: RWA fell 2.45%; NFT sector fell 1.83%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 89,720 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$201 million, including BTC liquidation of US$55.51 million, ETH liquidation of US$34.49 million, and SOL liquidation of US$14.04 million
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($106,587.58), lower channel line ($104,476.93)
ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($2473.90), lower channel line ($2424.91)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly within the range or in the short term, it is a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of June 26)

Bitcoin ETF: +$228 million (13 consecutive days of net inflows)
Ethereum ETF: -$26,457,900

4. Today’s Outlook

OKX will delist SANDUSD, ALGOUSD, and TONUSD perpetual contracts on June 27
Binance Alpha to List Moonveil(MORE)
Pipe Network to Launch PIPE Token Sale on CoinList on June 27
Yield Guild Games (YGG) will unlock approximately 14.08 million tokens at 10 pm on June 27, accounting for 2.68% of the current circulation and worth approximately $1.9 million.
SingularityNET (AGIX) will unlock approximately 7.15 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 28, accounting for 2.38% of the current circulation and worth approximately $1.9 million.
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) will unlock approximately 3.1 million tokens at 8 am on June 28, accounting for 0.12% of the current circulation and worth approximately US$1.9 million.

The biggest gainers in the top 500 by market capitalization today: Dohrnii (DHN) up 160.89%, Levana Protocol (LVN) up 70.88%, AI Companions (AIC) up 32.35%, Euler (EUL) up 20.79%, and Dog (Bitcoin) (DOG) up 9.86%.

5. Hot News

This article is supported by HashKey, the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat currency portal in Asia. HashKey Exchange is committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform security.