Today's top news highlights:
Analysis: Copper may face a structural shortage in 2026, and prices may remain strong.
UBS raised its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 to $5,000.
Macro
Analysis: Copper may face a structural shortage in 2026, and prices may remain strong.
Copper prices surged over 30% in 2025, breaking a record high of $12,000 per ton in December, marking the largest annual increase since 2009. Analysts predict that the global transition to renewable energy, electrification, and the AI data center construction boom will continue to drive copper demand growth, and prices may remain strong in 2026. Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals demand analyst at StoneX, stated that high copper prices may lead manufacturers to switch to alternatives, potentially suppressing demand in some non-essential sectors. Alastair Munro, base metals strategist at Marex, pointed out that the market widely expects a structural copper shortage starting in 2026. Furthermore, US tariffs have triggered a large influx of copper, causing Comex inventories to climb to a record high, while European LME inventories have fallen to less than 20,000 tons, creating regional supply and demand tensions. Albert Mackenzie, an analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, believes that the surge in US inventories has ignited supply concerns. Alice Fox, a strategist at Macquarie Group, predicts that copper prices will remain high in 2026. Previous reports indicated that London copper prices broke through $12,000 per ton, setting a new historical high.
UBS raised its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 to $5,000.
UBS stated that it remains bullish and has raised its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 to $5,000 per ounce (previously $4,500 per ounce). It expects gold prices to decline slightly to $4,800 per ounce by the end of 2026.
The State Council Tariff Commission released the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan".
The State Council Tariff Commission released the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan," which will take effect on January 1, 2026. This adjustment aims to promote high-quality development, optimize tariff item settings, and continue to implement agreement tariff rates and preferential tariff rates. Key contents include: implementing provisional import tariff rates lower than the most-favored-nation (MFN) rate for 935 commodities, covering key technological components, resource-based commodities for green transformation, and medical products; canceling provisional import tariff rates for some commodities and restoring MFN rates, such as micro-motors and printing machines; adding new tariff items such as intelligent bionic robots and bio-aviation kerosene, adjusting the total number of tariff items to 8,972; continuing to implement 100% zero-tariff treatment for products from 43 least developed countries, and implementing preferential tariff rates for imported goods from some ASEAN member states.
According to Caixin, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has confirmed that it will fully implement new bank capital regulations based on the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision's (BBS) standards for crypto-assets in Hong Kong starting January 1, 2026. Crypto-assets, as defined by the BBS, are private "digital assets" that primarily rely on cryptography and distributed ledger technology or similar technologies. "Digital assets" are defined as a digital representation of value that can be used for payment or investment purposes or to acquire goods or services. Not only Bitcoin and Ethereum fall under the BBS's definition of crypto-assets, but also RWA, stablecoins, and others.
According to the China Financial Times, Lu Lei, Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that the future digital yuan will be a modern digital payment and circulation means issued and circulated within the financial system, with technical support and supervision provided by the central bank, possessing the attributes of commercial bank liabilities, based on accounts, and compatible with distributed ledger technology. It will have the functions of a measure of monetary value, a store of value, and cross-border payment. Looking ahead, the choice of business and technology models for the digital yuan will adhere to the fundamental principle of meeting the needs of the real economy, adopting a principle of inclusiveness and prudent selection regarding the development of account-based and value-based digital currencies, and promoting the digital yuan to meet the needs of different scenarios and different business entities. Within the "two-tier architecture," the Action Plan clarifies that banking institutions will pay interest on the balance of customers' real-name digital yuan wallets and comply with the self-regulatory agreement on deposit interest rate pricing. This arrangement, based on the principle of substance over form, has initially formed a compatible incentive arrangement. Previous reports indicated that the central bank will issue the "Action Plan on Further Strengthening the Management and Service System and Related Financial Infrastructure Construction of the Digital Yuan."
According to the Financial Times of China, Lu Lei, Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China, announced that the People's Bank of China will issue the "Action Plan on Further Strengthening the Management and Service System and Related Financial Infrastructure Construction of Digital RMB". The new generation of digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operation mechanism and ecosystem will be officially launched on January 1, 2026.
Opinion
The Kobeissi Letter, a capital markets commentary journal, points out that gold and silver prices surged in 2025, becoming a "new stimulus check." Gold prices rose from $2,400/ounce in 2024 to the current $4,500/ounce, an increase of 88%; silver prices rose from $29/ounce to $79/ounce, an increase of over 170%. It is estimated that approximately 11% of Americans hold gold, and about 12% hold silver. American households saw their net worth increase by approximately $244.5 billion this year due to rising gold and silver prices. Globally, China and India purchased 700-900 tons of gold annually between 2022 and 2024, driving gold prices to double. Furthermore, China plans to implement silver export restrictions from January 1, 2026, further exacerbating market supply shortages. Analysts believe that while short-term profit-taking pressure may occur, potentially leading to a rotation of funds to other assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies, in the long term, factors such as inflation expectations, central bank interest rate cuts, and global central banks increasing their gold holdings will continue to support rising precious metal prices.
According to the Financial Times, Lu Lei, Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated in an article that within the "two-tier architecture," the "Action Plan on Further Strengthening the Management and Service System and Related Financial Infrastructure Construction of Digital RMB" clearly stipulates that banking institutions will pay interest on the balance of customers' real-name digital RMB wallets and comply with the self-regulatory agreement on deposit interest rate pricing. This arrangement, based on the principle of substance over form, has initially formed a compatible incentive arrangement. As a result, banks can independently conduct asset and liability management of their digital RMB wallet balances, with deposit insurance providing the same security guarantees as deposits in accordance with the law. For non-bank payment institutions, there is no difference between digital RMB margin and customer reserve funds. Previously, it was reported that the People's Bank of China would issue the "Action Plan on Further Strengthening the Management and Service System and Related Financial Infrastructure Construction of Digital RMB," and the new generation of digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operating mechanism, and ecosystem will be officially launched and implemented on January 1, 2026.
Project Updates
Flow has released an update regarding the attack, stating that validator consensus has been reached and the proposed software upgrade plan has been accepted. The network is currently in the remediation and testing phase. The Flow network is live and has begun generating blocks, but general transaction reception remains suspended as the remediation protocol needs to be validated and tested. At 6:00 AM Pacific Time, the network will be open as part of the first phase of the Flow network recovery plan. The Cadence environment will be operational, while accounts affected by the poisoning attack will remain temporarily restricted, and the EVM environment will be temporarily restricted (read-only). Over 99.9% of Cadence accounts will have full functionality restored during this transition period.
Brevis has launched its airdrop registration and eligibility verification portal.
PANews reported on December 29th that Brevis, the ZK smart verifiable computing platform, announced the launch of its airdrop registration and eligibility verification portal. Users must verify their eligibility before applying. The application channel will be open from December 29th to January 3rd (6:00 AM UTC), and the allocation will be announced when the application opens. Previously, Brevis released its $BREV token economic model: a total token supply of 1 billion, with community incentives accounting for 32.20%.
According to PolkaWorld, with the passage of WFC #1710 (Hard Pressure) proposal, Polkadot's economic model now has a clear, predictable, and unchangeable long-term path for the first time. This path has three core elements: a total supply cap of 2.1 billion DOT; annual issuance reductions every two years; and each reduction of 13.14% of the remaining issuance. Under the Hard Pressure model, Polkadot's annual issuance will officially begin to decline starting March 14, 2026. That is, the first issuance reduction will occur on March 14, 2026, corresponding to an annual inflation rate of approximately 3.11%.
The second phase of the Stable pre-deposit promotion will open for withdrawals on December 31st.
Hourglass announced that the second phase of the Stable Deposit program will open for withdrawals on December 31, 2025, and more details about the withdrawal process will be released soon.
Analysis: At least 40% of Jupiter's trading volume is pure atomic arbitrage activity.
Analyst Eekeyguy, in an article published on the X platform, analyzed that arbitrage trading on Solana is divided into atomic arbitrage and bundled arbitrage. Many arbitrage bots do not run custom programs but trade through aggregators such as Jupiter and DFlow. At least 40% of Jupiter's trading volume is purely atomic arbitrage activity. Aggregators handle approximately 60% of all Solana DEX trading volume, and Jupiter holds about 90% market share in this area. Therefore, approximately 22% of Solana DEX's total trading volume is simply atomic arbitrage trading conducted through Jupiter. Furthermore, after adding bundled arbitrage data, Jupiter's arbitrage trading share jumps from 40% to 50%, bringing the total arbitrage trading share of the DEX to approximately 27%. Including DFlow and other aggregators, it is estimated that arbitrage trading tracked solely through aggregators accounts for approximately 30% of all Solana DEX trading volume. Conservative estimates suggest that at least 50% of trading volume on Solana DEX is arbitrage trading, and on certain days this proportion may approach 60% to 70%. Note: The above analysis has not yet captured other types of arbitrage strategies. Atomic arbitrage refers to completing the transaction within a single trade—that is, buying low on one DEX and selling high on another DEX to profit from the price difference in one transaction. Combination arbitrage achieves the same result through multiple trades within the same block.
Trust Wallet CEO Eowync.eth posted an update on the browser extension v2.68 security incident on the X platform, stating that the team has confirmed 2,596 affected wallet addresses and has received approximately 5,000 compensation claims, including numerous duplicate or invalid submissions attempting to fraudulently claim victim compensation. Accurately verifying wallet ownership is currently the core focus of the work, and the team is using multiple data cross-validation methods to distinguish between genuine victims and malicious submitters. This verification work is proceeding concurrently with the forensic investigation, and some cases have reached relatively clear conclusions, but the overall process is still ongoing. The team will prioritize accuracy over speed, ensuring the safe return of funds to the correct users, and will release further progress information as soon as possible, with an update expected within the next day.
Important data
Crypto analyst Murphy stated that the key contradiction for ETH currently lies in the dispersed nature of its underlying token structure. The most concentrated area of ETH tokens is currently between $2700 and $3100, with a cumulative accumulation of 17.9 million ETH, representing 22.6% of the total circulating supply. The $2700 level forms the highest concentration area in the current token structure, with a turnover of 4.43 million tokens, and is considered a key support level. On-chain data shows that a large amount of capital built positions around $4500 in mid-September, but failed to reduce them subsequently, leading to a price drop to the current range. Notably, large funds bought the dip in the $2700-$2800 range in late November, and there are currently no obvious signs of selling. Furthermore, on-chain behavioral analysis shows that the tokens around $3100 mainly come from long-term funds, which are not sensitive to short-term price fluctuations, but a sharp price drop could trigger a sell-off. Currently, the ETH price is fluctuating within the $2700-$3100 range, with institutions reaching a certain consensus within this range, thus absorbing some selling pressure. However, there is still a large amount of accumulated trading volume in the $50-$396 range below, which may pose a risk to subsequent price movements.
Two new wallets withdrew a total of 1,600 BTC from Binance today, worth approximately $144 million.
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, another newly created wallet withdrew 1,000 BTC ($89.97 million) from Binance. In total, two newly created wallets withdrew a combined 1,600 BTC ($144 million) from Binance today.
According to Hyperbot data, Huang Licheng closed all his HYPE long positions one hour ago. This round of operations lasted 42 hours and 21 minutes, resulting in a profit of $2,988.83. In addition, during this period, he repeatedly added to and reduced his ETH long positions. Currently, his ETH long position size is 8,000 ETH, with a floating profit of $245,000.
According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $782 million last week (December 22-26, Eastern Time), with none of the twelve ETFs experiencing net inflows. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest net outflow last week was BlackRock ETF IBIT, with a weekly net outflow of $435 million. IBIT's historical total net inflow has reached $62.06 billion. This was followed by Fidelity ETF FBTC, with a weekly net outflow of $111 million. FBTC's historical total net inflow has reached $12.098 billion. As of press time, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $113.53 billion, with an ETF net asset value ratio (market capitalization as a percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalization) of 6.49%. Historical cumulative net inflows have reached $56.62 billion.
According to SoSoValue data, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $102 million last week (December 22-26, Eastern Time). The Ethereum spot ETF with the largest net inflow last week was the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF (ETH), with a weekly net inflow of $34.22 million, bringing ETH's historical total net inflow to $1.51 billion. The Ethereum spot ETF with the largest net outflow last week was the BlackRock ETF (ETHA), with a weekly net outflow of $69.42 million, bringing ETHA's historical total net inflow to $12.6 billion; followed by the Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHE), with a weekly net outflow of $47.54 million, bringing ETHE's historical total net outflow to $5.1 billion. As of press time, the Ethereum spot ETF has a total net asset value of $17.73 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market capitalization as a percentage of Ethereum's total market capitalization) of 5.01%, and a cumulative net inflow of $12.34 billion.
According to Artemis data, Solana DEX spot trading volume has surged to over $1.7 trillion so far this year, surpassing Bybit to become second only to Binance.
Financing/Acquisition
Tokyo-based cryptocurrency rewards platform SocialGood Inc. announced the completion of an ¥880 million (approximately US$5.63 million) Series B funding round, bringing its total funding to ¥2.4 billion (US$15.35 million). The round raised ¥880 million through a combination of private placements (including to i-nest capital) and loans. The company plans to use the new funds to further strengthen its internal management and governance structure.
Institutional holdings
Trend Research is suspected of purchasing another 11,520 ETH, worth $34.93 million.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, "66kETHBorrow" (an address suspected to belong to Trend Research) has just purchased another 11,520 ETH (worth $34.93 million).
According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, Trend Research, an institution under Yi Lihua, withdrew another 20,850 ETH from Binance in the past hour, worth $63.28 million. Subsequently, it borrowed 40 million USDT by staking ETH through address 0x8FD…97f43, potentially indicating further accumulation. Currently, the institution's five addresses hold a total of 600,850 ETH, with a total value of $1.82 billion. According to data provided by Yi Lihua, the previous cost of 580,000 ETH was approximately $3,150, meaning the average cost after this accumulation is around $3,146.
