1. Market observation

Keywords: BASE, BSC, ETH, BTC

The U.S. non-farm payrolls data for May released on Friday was slightly higher than expected, easing market concerns about a recession. According to CME data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is as high as 99.9%, and the probability of keeping them unchanged in July is 83.4%, despite Trump's urging for a 100 basis point rate cut through social media. "The May CPI report to be released on Wednesday will be the focus of market attention, which may show whether the downward trend of inflation has stagnated. Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, recently warned that the US government's $7 trillion expenditure against $5 trillion in revenue has created a $2 trillion deficit gap, causing the dollar to depreciate sharply at a 5% Treasury yield, and has fallen nearly 9% this year. The total US national debt has exceeded $37 trillion. If the "Beautiful Big" bill is passed, it will further push up the debt by $1.5 trillion. Hartnett pointed out that the US House of Representatives and the Senate may raise the debt ceiling by $4-5 trillion to support it until the 2028 election. It is expected that key policy turning points will occur between June 15 and July 4: trade will turn to peace, global defense spending expectations will peak, and the US tax cut policy will be locked. Time nodes worth noting include: the Swiss National Bank has a 21% probability of reintroducing negative interest rate policy on June 19; Trump may sign the "Beautiful Big Bill" on July 4; and the US promise to suspend the 24% tariff for 90 days until July 8 as reported by CCTV News.

The weekend market was relatively cold, and Bitcoin was mainly volatile. Last week, the closing price was $105,734, successfully standing above the 10-day simple moving average. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital said that Bitcoin has now closed above $104,400 for four consecutive weeks. This position was previously a resistance level and has now turned into a support level. Trader Cas Abbe predicted by observing the liquidity of the order book that BTC may experience "magnetic" fluctuations to capture liquidity. He said that the current BTC liquidation cluster shows an upward signal. If the BTC price rises by 10%, short positions worth $15.11 billion will be liquidated; if it falls by 10%, long positions worth $9.58 billion will be liquidated. He expects BTC to experience significant fluctuations this week, which may push the price above $109,000-$110,000. Although Matrixport acknowledges that the recent price trend has weakened, its trend model still maintains a bullish stance and will only turn bearish if it falls below $96,719.

In the altcoin market, it is becoming increasingly difficult to make money on the chain, especially on the Solana chain, and many traders are turning to the Base or BSC chain. The DeFAI + InfoFi project TAGGER (TAG) of the BSC ecosystem rose 166% in 24 hours, and the American Eagle EGL1 rose for 5 consecutive days, becoming a new strong MEME coin on the BSC chain, ranking first in the USD1 trading competition, rising 66.68% in 24 hours, and the market value exceeded 72 million US dollars; in addition, the little monk $Janitor, the AI+on-chain data analysis project $CXZI, and the alphabet concept coins $Z and $E have also become popular Meme coins in USD1 transactions. There are also many outstanding projects in the Base ecosystem, such as the AI token $LAY, which rose nearly 3 times in 24 hours, with a market value of more than 35 million US dollars, TORUS, which rose 88.1% in 24 hours, and MAMO, which has a market value of nearly 90 million US dollars and a 24-hour increase of 16%; the algorithm innovation project (OPoW) $TIG doubled in 24 hours, with a market value of more than 76 million US dollars.

2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on June 9)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin : $105,650 (+12.6% YTD), daily spot volume $17.918 billion

• Ethereum : $2,495.20 (-25.58% YTD), with daily spot volume of $11.322 billion

• Fear of corruption index : 55 (neutral)

• Average GAS : BTC: 3.52 sat/vB ETH: 3.28 Gwei

• Market share : BTC 63.8%, ETH 9.1%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking : XRP, ANIME, BTC, ETH, RVN

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio : 1.0214

• Sector gains and losses : PayFi up 2.3%; stablecoins up 1%

• 24-hour liquidation data : A total of 55,999 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$125 million, including BTC liquidation of US$20.85 million, ETH liquidation of US$35.4 million, and SOL liquidation of US$5.8 million

• BTC medium- and long-term trend channel : upper channel line ($106,309.97), lower channel line ($104,204.83)

• ETH medium and long-term trend channel : upper channel line ($2552.46), lower channel line ($2501.92)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly within the range or in the short term, it is a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of June 6)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$47,822,500

• Ethereum ETF: +25.2228 million (net inflow for 15 consecutive days)

4. Today’s Outlook

• Binance Alpha and Futures will be listed on Skate (SKATE)

• The U.S. SEC will hold a roundtable meeting on "DeFi and the American Spirit" on June 9

• Binance Alpha Platform to Launch Defi App (HOME) on June 10

• Huma Finance 2.0 staker deposits open on June 10

• Resolv (RESOLV) to be listed on Binance Alpha and Binance Futures on June 10

• Base Ecosystem Social Prediction Market Upside will be launched on June 10

• US New York Fed 1-year inflation forecast for May (23:00, June 9): Actual value to be announced / Previous value 3.63%

The biggest gainers in the top 500 by market value today: Paycoin (PCI) rose 43.41%, VICE Token (VICE) rose 39.56%, BORA (BORA) rose 16.31%, AI Companions (AIC) rose 14.35%, and Venice Token (VVV) rose 12.18%.

5. Hot News

• Data: APT, STRK, IMX and other tokens will usher in large amounts of unlocking, of which APT unlocks about 52.7 million US dollars

• Macro Outlook This Week: CPI data tests the patience of the Fed again, gold will receive directional signals

• Binance Alpha Launches Open Loot (OL)

• DWF Labs bought 7 tokens totaling $6.43 million in one month, with a total floating loss of 13%

• Binance Alpha now lists AB (AB) tokens. Holders of at least 225 Binance Alpha Points are eligible to claim the token airdrop.

• Trend Research withdraws another 4,000 ETH from CEX, worth $9.97 million

• DeFi protocol ALEX suffered a loss of approximately $8.37 million due to a logic vulnerability attack, and the official promised full compensation

• Circle IPO loses $1.72 billion in potential revenue, becoming the seventh-largest IPO underpricing case in decades

• The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States in May were 139,000, and the unemployment rate in the United States was 4.2% in May

• Binance Alpha Platform to Launch Defi App (HOME)

• Listed company YTO Logistics announces digital asset reserve strategy, plans to acquire up to 15,000 Bitcoins

• IOST Completes $21 Million Strategic Financing, DWF Labs and Others Participate

This article is supported by HashKey , the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat currency portal in Asia. HashKey is committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform security.