OSL Trading Time: The market may enter a consolidation period before the next decline, and the behavior of large investors will become a key indicator

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing turbulence, with Bitcoin and Ethereum leading a downturn that has pushed total market value below $3 trillion, signaling a potential consolidation period before further decline.
Bitcoin faces regulatory challenges, with states like Pennsylvania warning of sophisticated ATM fraud, while South Dakota and Montana reject Bitcoin Reserve Act proposals due to volatility concerns. Despite Bernstein's $200K price prediction, market uncertainty persists.
Ethereum encounters governance and technical hurdles, including the resignation of Executive Director Aya Miyaguchi and Pectra upgrade failures, though cost basis trends indicate rising investor confidence.
Large investors (whales) are moving significant BTC amounts (26,430 BTC to accumulation addresses), serving as a key market indicator amid weakening support levels and potential price adjustments.
Key data (as of Feb 26):
- Bitcoin: $88,598 (-5.16% YTD), Ethereum: $2,485.23 (-25.70% YTD)
- Bitcoin ETF outflows: -$773.41M, Ethereum ETF: -$50.08M (Feb 25)
Upcoming events include GDP growth estimates and Core PCE data releases on Feb 28, which may influence market sentiment.
Notable news: SEC ends Uniswap probe, Grayscale files for Ethereum and Cardano ETFs, and Citadel Securities plans crypto market-making entry.
Market sentiment is bearish, with the Fear & Greed Index hitting 25 (extreme fear), and analysts like Arthur Hayes warning of Bitcoin potentially dropping to $70K.

1. Market observation

Keywords: XRP, ETH, BTC

The current cryptocurrency market is in a turbulent period, with Bitcoin and Ethereum, as the core of market development, performing particularly well. The entire cryptocurrency market suffered a downturn on Tuesday, with major currencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Dogecoin suffering heavy losses. The total market value has fallen back below the $3 trillion mark, and a period of consolidation is expected before the next decline.

As for Bitcoin, the market has struggled in the face of aggressive investor sentiment, causing the price to fall below the $90,000 mark recently. On the regulatory level, several states are cautious about Bitcoin: Pennsylvania's Attorney General issued a warning that Bitcoin ATM fraud methods are becoming increasingly sophisticated; at the same time, South Dakota and Montana both rejected the Bitcoin Reserve Act proposal due to Bitcoin's high volatility and lack of practical application. Although Bernstein analysts predict that Bitcoin is expected to reach $200,000, the realization of this goal remains uncertain under current market conditions.

The Ethereum ecosystem is also facing multiple challenges. On the governance level, Executive Director Aya Miyaguchi resigned due to criticism of her role in the Ethereum Foundation. On the technical level, Ethereum's upgraded version Pectra experienced outages after its release due to developers' failure to specify the correct smart contract address. However, it is worth noting that Ethereum's cost basis distribution has shown a positive downward trend, indicating that investor sentiment and confidence in the currency are rising.

In terms of market dynamics, the well-known trading platform Bybit received a large number of Ethereum deposits from Mirana Ventures' Arkham despite suffering an elaborate malware attack last week that cost it more than $1.5 billion. This phenomenon occurred against the backdrop of tariff uncertainty and Bitcoin falling below key support levels, highlighting the complexity of the market.

Looking ahead, the behavior of large investors (whales) will be a key indicator of market direction. Data shows that these large investors have transferred 26,430 BTC to known accumulation addresses. However, market signals indicate that Bitcoin's market structure is facing the threat of potential price adjustments and weakening support levels, and we need to continue to pay attention to future market developments.

2. Key data (as of 10:30 HKT on February 26)

S&P 500: 5,955.25 (+1.25% year-to-date)
Nasdaq: 19,026.39 (-1.47% year-to-date)
10-year Treasury yield: 4.324% (-25.20 basis points year-to-date)
US dollar index: 106.37 (-1.95% year-to-date)
Bitcoin: $88,598 (-5.16% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $84.7 billion
Ethereum: $2,485.23 (-25.70% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $39.25 billion