1. Market observation

Keywords: Trump, Musk, Tesla, ETH

Trump and Musk's public dispute has caused market turmoil. This "Twitter war" stems from the fundamental differences between the two on economic policies, especially on the "Big Beautiful" bill and tariff policies. Musk, as a representative of the "tech right", has significant contradictions with the MAGA camp on economic priorities. The former pursues deregulation, especially in the fields of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence, while the latter insists on trade protectionism. Although Musk's tone has softened recently, the market has been hit hard: Tesla's stock price fell 14.26% to $284.7, and its market value evaporated by $153 billion in a single day. Forbes estimates that this storm caused Musk's personal wealth to shrink by $27 billion to $388 billion. At the same time, Trump's media and technology group Trump Media & Technology Group also fell 8%, and the market value of its Meme coins evaporated by about $1 billion.

The number of initial jobless claims released on Thursday unexpectedly soared to an eight-month high, pushing U.S. Treasury yields to a near one-month low, and the market immediately moved the first rate cut expectations forward from October to September. Although the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this month, the upcoming non-farm payrolls report may completely change the direction of interest rates. Under the dual pressure of high inflation and economic slowdown, policy shifts need more data support - especially assessing the impact of Trump's trade policy may take months. The interest rate swap market shows that the probability of a rate cut in September has soared to 90%, and the 50 basis point rate cut this year has been fully digested. At the same time, changes in South Korea's political arena may bring new opportunities to the cryptocurrency market. After winning a landslide victory, Lee Jae-myung, the candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, vowed to position virtual assets as the key to national financial reform, promote token securities legislation, legalize virtual asset spot ETFs, build a won-anchored stablecoin system, and even guide the national pension fund with a scale of US$884 billion to allocate crypto assets. However, Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst at HashKey Group, expressed concerns about the Korean market, pointing out that the crisis of trust caused by the Terra/Luna collapse and the strict compliance requirements will test the Lee Jae-myung government's ability to balance regulation and market vitality.

Bitcoin fell to around $100,000 this morning, close to the 50-day moving average support of $100,295. Bitfinex analysts pointed out that if the US employment report on Friday shows a slowdown in labor market growth, Bitcoin may rise to the $120,000-125,000 range; conversely, if the data is strong, the price may fall back to around $95,000. QCP Capital pointed out that the trading of call options with an expiration of September and an exercise price of $130,000 shows that some investors still have expectations for the third quarter. Tim Draper, a well-known Silicon Valley investor, still insists on his prediction that Bitcoin can reach $250,000 this year, and believes that Trump's trade agreement, the upcoming regulatory framework and the development of Web3 applications will drive Bitcoin prices up. He pointed out that major banks are incorporating Bitcoin into their product systems, and even JPMorgan Chase, which has long resisted, plans to allow its trading and wealth management clients to use some assets linked to cryptocurrencies as loan collateral, which will further promote the mainstreaming of Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, Ethereum fell below $2,400 this morning. Crypto trader Eugene said he had gone long on ETH at the current price and set the stop loss below this morning's lowest point of $2,380. Currently, ETH is retesting the low point of the mid-term range. However, Trend Research is firmly optimistic about Ethereum. On the evening of June 5, it said it had purchased 61,000 Ethereum long options on Deribit, with strike prices of $3,200 and $3,400 for ETH call options. It is reported that the transaction paid a total premium of more than $2 million.

In the crypto market, the dispute between Trump and Musk also gave rise to meme coins such as $PVE, $KILLBILL, and $MUSK. The main meme coins DOGE and TRUMP both fell by 10%. James Wynn, a whale on Hyperliquid, also became a victim of the dispute. He was forced to close his 379 bitcoins at 1 a.m. He then chose to actively clear his remaining positions, and eventually lost $2.9 million on this long bitcoin transaction. It is worth noting that Wynn once made a profit of $87 million two weeks ago, but now the accumulated losses have reached $20.5 million, with only $700,000 left in the account. In addition, stablecoin issuer Circle successfully landed in the U.S. market, with its stock price soaring nearly 170% on the first day of its IPO, reaching $103.75 during the session, far exceeding the issue price of $31. This success will encourage more crypto companies to advance their listing plans, including BitGo, Kraken, Gemini and Blockchain.com .

2. Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on June 6)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin : $102,942 (+10.1% YTD), daily spot volume $42.877 billion

• Ethereum : $2,458.58 (-26.29% YTD), with daily spot volume of $27.835 billion

• Fear and corruption index : 46 (panic)

• Average GAS : BTC: 1.49 sat/vB ETH: 3.25 Gwei

• Market share : BTC 63.7%, ETH 9.2%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking : RVN, BTC, XRP, ETH, DOGE

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio : 0.9623

• Sector ups and downs : The altcoin market fell for 3 consecutive days, L2 fell 5.89%; Meme fell 5.67%

• 24-hour liquidation data : A total of 225,036 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$980 million, including BTC liquidation of US$341 million, ETH liquidation of US$285 million, and DOGE liquidation of US$27.1169 million

• BTC medium- and long-term trend channel : upper channel line ($105,735.13), lower channel line ($103,641.36)

• ETH medium and long-term trend channel : upper line of the channel ($2569.60), lower line ($2518.72)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly within the range or in the short term, it is a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of June 5)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$278 million

• Ethereum ETF: +11.2587 million (net inflow for 14 consecutive days)

4. Today’s Outlook

• Binance Alpha to List fly.trade (FLY)

• Binance will delist five spot trading pairs including ACX/FDUSD and IDEX/FDUSD on June 6

• Avalanche launches Codebase Incubator Season 4, applications close on June 6

• Spectral (SPEC) will unlock approximately 3.62 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 6, accounting for 17.57% of the current circulation and worth approximately $3.7 million.

• Neon (NEON) will unlock approximately 53.91 million tokens at 8 am on June 7, accounting for 22.51% of the current circulation and worth approximately $6.1 million.

• U.S. unemployment rate in May (20:30, June 6): actual to be announced / previous value 4.20% / expected 4.20%

• U.S. non-farm payrolls in May (10,000 people) (20:30, June 6): actual to be announced / previous value 17.7 / expected 13

The biggest gainers in the top 500 by market value today: Ravencoin (RVN) rose 36.77%, Central African Republic Meme (CAR) rose 19.06%, Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) rose 18.08%, Lagrange (LA) rose 11.56%, and Ultima (ULTIMA) rose 9.36%.

5. Hot News

• Abraxas Capital made over $55 million in short selling of multiple currencies

• Yuga Labs proposes to dissolve ApeCoin DAO and plans to have a new entity ApeCo take over the ecosystem

• U.S. stocks closed: All three major stock indexes fell, and Tesla fell 14.26%

• Circle's stock price rose 167.35% on its first day of listing, closing at $82.88

• The value of Bitcoin holdings by listed companies is close to $85 billion, more than doubling in one year

• Origin Protocol: 100% of protocol revenue will be distributed directly to OGN stakers

• The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 31 was 247,000, higher than expected

• Beijing police pioneered a mechanism to dispose of tokens involved in the case: selling them through Hong Kong compliant exchanges and paying them to the national treasury

• Skate announces token economics: initial issuance of 1 billion tokens, initial airdrop accounts for 10%

• Binance Report: RWA market size surges by more than 260% in the first half of 2025, clear regulation drives industry development

• Russia's Central Bank plans to allow businesses to buy foreign stablecoins

• Deribit: $3.8 billion in BTC and ETH options are about to expire, with call options dominating

• Binance adds BIFI, FIS, KMD and MDT to the “Monitoring Tags” list

This article is supported by HashKey , the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat currency portal in Asia. HashKey is committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform security.