OSL Trading Time: Trump effect detonates the crypto market, ETH/BTC exchange rate falls below 0.03 in the short term

1. Market observation

Keywords: TRUMP, SOL, BTC

Bitcoin recently broke through the important $106,000 mark for the first time, a breakthrough that is closely tied to the upcoming inauguration of Donald Trump. Traders are generally optimistic about Trump's cryptocurrency policy during his presidency, predicting that Bitcoin could reach a new high of $150,000. Bitcoin regained key liquidity levels last week and encountered no significant resistance when approaching its all-time high, which further boosted market confidence.

The probability of the United States establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve during the Trump administration has risen to 70%. This trend has been echoed internationally, with Swiss supporters also proposing to add Bitcoin reserves to their central bank portfolios. These signs indicate that Bitcoin is gradually being integrated into the global national reserve management system.

However, Ethereum's performance has surprised traders in the context of the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization expanding to $3.59 trillion. Despite recent support from $166 million in ETF inflows, Ethereum is still struggling to break through the $3,500 mark. It is worth noting that the Ethereum Foundation is undergoing a major leadership reorganization, including a series of changes announced by co-founder Vitalik Buterin. But the behavior of major Ethereum holders to strengthen their holdings may suggest a positive strategic adjustment.

In this wave of cryptocurrency gains, traders and investors are also optimistic about the prospects of Dogecoin, expecting it to achieve significant appreciation driven by the "Trump effect". However, the market also faces some challenges: the police recently recovered 28 million pounds worth of Bitcoin from an international fraud gang that used Australian cryptocurrency trading websites to conduct fraudulent activities. At the same time, some critics have expressed concerns about the continued rise of Bitcoin and questioned President-elect Trump's stance on cryptocurrencies.

2. Key data (as of 10:00 HKT on January 20)

S&P 500: 5,996.66 (+1.96% year-to-date)
Nasdaq: 19,630.20 (+1.65% year-to-date)
10-year Treasury yield: 4.630% (+5.40 basis points this year)
US dollar index: 109.26 (+0.71% year-to-date)
Bitcoin: $100,357 (+7.12% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $71.43 billion
Ethereum: $3,190.76 (-4.60% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $62.8 billion

Solana's Shenzhen event was cleared by police, and the project roadshow was halted.

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