PANews reported on June 13th that, according to Cointelegraph, a new study by Galaxy Digital suggests that due to a lack of speculative activity, the Bitcoin cycle low may occur at a higher price level than in previous bear markets. The analysis suggests a potential bottom between $62,000 and the actual Bitcoin price of $53,600.

Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn analyzed each top and bottom of the Bitcoin cycle, noting a strong correlation between the four-year cycle and Bitcoin's historical price action. The decline from peak to trough has steadily narrowed across various market cycles, decreasing from 85% and 84% in earlier periods to 77% in 2022 and 51% in 2026. The current top signal in October 2025 is weak, with only 2 out of 11 traditional top indicators triggering, and the widely followed Pi Cycle Top indicator failing to trigger for the first time. Bitcoin's market capitalization to realized value ratio (MVRV) peaked at 2.29, compared to between 2.93 and 5.91 in previous cycles. The report also found that several key bottom signals remain missing. Only 4 out of 13 indicators have been triggered so far, with most stronger signals yet to emerge. Thorn notes that based on the current cost price of $53,600, Galaxy estimates the base case bottom range to be between $40,000 and $46,000. A more severe "shakeout" scenario would point to a drop of $30,000 to $37,000, while a slower decline could remain around $51,000 to $54,000.