HashKey Trading Time: ETH is expected to hit $2,700, ZKJ plunge triggers $100 million liquidation, Solana ecosystem tokens may benefit from the approaching ETF

1. Market observation

Keywords: interest rate, ETH, BTC

The Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision in the early hours of June 19th, Beijing time, and the market is paying close attention to the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for policy direction. Despite the slowdown in job growth, the unemployment rate remained stable for three consecutive months, partly because the sharp decline in the number of immigrants reduced the supply of workers. The underlying inflation rate increased less than expected for the fourth consecutive month in May. Supported by expectations of rate cuts, the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury bond fell seven basis points to 3.96% last week. Officials, including Federal Reserve Governor Waller, have been open to rate cuts, believing that the impact of tariffs on prices can be regarded as temporary as long as inflation expectations remain stable. Matthew Luzzetti, chief economist of Deutsche Bank, expects that if officials raise inflation expectations, the number of rate cuts this year may be reduced from the previously predicted two to one. Julia Coronado, a former Federal Reserve economist, expects interest rate cuts to begin in the fourth quarter of this year to respond to a possible slowdown in the labor market. The impact of Trump's tariff policy and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East have cast a shadow on the economic outlook, and the market will pay close attention to the Fed's new round of economic forecasts.

In the wave of global digital transformation, Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst at Hashkey, pointed out that the integration of traditional industries with Web3 and AI technologies is reshaping the business landscape. This trend is not only reflected in the fact that companies seize the opportunity of intelligence by deploying decentralized AI and blockchain technology, but also reflected in specific investment actions. For example, Nasdaq-listed Interactive Strength spent $500 million to purchase Fetch.ai tokens, aiming to build the world's largest corporate AI token reserve. The world's first decentralized large-scale language model launched by Fetch.ai provides AI support for industries such as medical care, energy and finance with the advantages of data privacy, scalability and community-driven innovation. However, while companies accelerate their entry into Web3 through private equity and crypto market makers, they must also be wary of crypto asset price fluctuations and regulatory compliance risks, and ensure strategic sustainability while seizing the dividends of innovation.

Bitcoin remained volatile over the weekend, and technical indicators show that BTC is currently trading above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level ($104,872) and along the rising trend line since early June. The MACD histogram has flattened, indicating that the bearish momentum has weakened. If the price breaks through the 50-period moving average ($106,351) and holds above the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($106,788), it may test $107,640 and $108,864 in the short term. Despite the increased market volatility, Bitcoin's technical structure remains good, and its overall upward trend remains solid without falling below $103,169. In addition, analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that $105,000 is a key resistance level. If it is lost again, Bitcoin may fall back to the $100,000 liquidity area, providing the market with new buying opportunities. Another trader, Merlijn, believes that Bitcoin is forming an "inverse head and shoulders pattern" and once the neckline ($113,000) is broken, the price target may exceed $140,000. According to Cointelegraph analysis, historical data shows that Bitcoin prices may rise by 16% to 24% in the short term after a sharp rise in oil prices. Although Bitcoin is generally regarded as a risky asset, it has rebounded significantly in several historical events after oil price surges. For example, after oil prices rose to $80.50 in January 2025, Bitcoin rebounded 22% from $89,300 to $109,300, and a similar situation occurred in 2024. The current oil price is climbing again, and historical data shows that Bitcoin may be an attractive entry point around $102,800, with a target of a 16% increase to $119,200 by June 21.

Meanwhile, Ethereum stabilized at $2,509 after a pullback from $2,771 to $2,443 last week, causing 80,000 traders to lose $298 million. However, institutional investors continued to increase their positions. BlackRock purchased $570 million of ETH in two weeks and currently holds more than 1.5 million ETH with a total value of $3.83 billion. At the same time, SharpLink Gaming acquired 176,000 ETH for $463 million. From a technical perspective, ETH is testing the key support range of $2,500 to $2,550. If the support is effective, it may rebound to the $2,700 to $2,800 range; otherwise, it may pull back to $2,300 or even $2,000. It is worth noting that the supply of ETH on exchanges has dropped to the lowest level in eight years, and a shortage of supply may drive prices up. The market generally expects ETH to break through $4,000 by the end of 2025, among which CLS Global is more optimistic, predicting a short-term target price of $5,400 and a long-term target price of $7,000.

In the market, on the evening of June 15, ZKJ and KOGE suffered a cliff-like drop on the Binance Alpha platform. The price of ZKJ plummeted from $1.98 to $0.253, a drop of 83.64%; KOGE also suffered a heavy drop, from $62 to $8.48. Analysis pointed out that the plunge was caused by the withdrawal of liquidity and large-scale selling of multiple key addresses, resulting in panic selling and liquidity depletion in the market. In addition, the 15.53 million tokens that ZKJ is about to unlock further exacerbated the selling pressure. Coinglass data shows that the total amount of liquidation in the past 24 hours reached $240 million, of which ZKJ contributed $102 million. The trading volume of the Binance Alpha platform has declined for 6 consecutive days, and as of June 15, it was reported at $777 million, down about 51% from the high point on June 8. Yesterday, the trading volume of ZKJ was $417 million, the trading volume of KOGE was $91.72 million, and the trading volume of AB was $65.69 million, ranking first.

At the same time, the SOL ecosystem may benefit from the plunge of Binance Alpha tokens and the impact of the approaching ETF, and perform strongly. SOL rose 7.3% in 24 hours, and the ecological project Marinade rose 39.4% in 24 hours, Jito rose 18.2%, and Kamino rose 10%. The market value of Meme coin aura briefly hit a record high of US$235 million and then fell back to US$178 million. In addition, WLFI community members expect their tokens to be launched on June 16, and the official announcement will be released at 8 o'clock tonight. The current institutional OTC price is US$0.1.

2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on June 16)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

Bitcoin : $106,412 (+13.94% YTD), daily spot volume $25.206 billion
Ethereum : $2,576.40 (-22.25% YTD), with daily spot volume of $14.241 billion
Fear of corruption index : 50 (neutral)
Average GAS : BTC: 1.17 sat/vB ETH: 0.31 Gwei
Market share : BTC 63.8%, ETH 9.4%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking : XRP, POKT, BTC, ETH, T
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0305
Sector ups and downs : SOL Ecosystem up 8.6%; AI Meme up 6.2%
24-hour liquidation data : A total of 68,397 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$240 million, including BTC liquidation of US$26.5295 million, ETH liquidation of US$39.155 million, and ZKJ liquidation of US$102 million
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel : upper channel line ($107,213.54), lower channel line ($105,090.50)
ETH medium and long-term trend channel : upper channel line ($2611.58), lower channel line ($2559.87)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly within the range or in the short term, it is a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of June 13)

Bitcoin ETF: +$302 million
Ethereum ETF: -$2.176 million (19 consecutive days of net inflow ended)

4. Today’s Outlook

Binance will stop supporting FIS and MDT token deposits and withdrawals through BNB Chain on June 16
Binance will adjust the Alpha points rules on June 17 to cope with the sharp fluctuations of ZKJ and KOGE
The U.S. Senate will hold a final vote on the stablecoin GENIUS Act on June 17
Starknet: STRK staking v2 will be launched on the mainnet on June 17
Nansen will launch the first season of the points program on June 17
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock approximately 92.65 million tokens at 9 pm on June 16, accounting for 1.91% of the current circulation and worth approximately US$30.2 million.
ZKsync (ZK) will unlock approximately 768 million tokens at 4 pm on June 17, accounting for 20.91% of the current circulation, worth approximately $39 million;
ApeCoin (APE) will unlock approximately 15.6 million tokens at 8:30 pm on June 17, accounting for 1.95% of the current circulation and worth approximately US$10.6 million;

The biggest gainers in the top 500 by market value today: VaderAI (VADER) up 20.63%, Jito (JTO) up 16.75%, Non-Playable Coin (NPC) up 15.61%, Ribbita (TIBBIR) up 14.52%, and Chintai (CHEX) up 14.04%.

5. Hot News

This article is supported by HashKey, the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat currency portal in Asia. HashKey Exchange is committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform security.