Yesterday, MicroStrategy once again published a statement saying that it spent $5.4 billion to purchase 55,500 BTC at around $98,000. ETFs have also continued to flow in recently, but Bitcoin still has not broken through the $100,000 mark, which shows that the pressure of $100,000 is huge.
StarEx exchange analysts believe that after the "Trump deal" in which Bitcoin rose from $60,000 to $100,000, it entered a period of adjustment, and the market's attention gradually turned to the altcoin sector, and a rebound market began. Bitcoin is currently facing significant pressure at the historical threshold of $100,000, and the passage of ETFs has made institutional funds the main force in controlling the market, gradually replacing retail funds. As of now, the scale of Bitcoin's open contracts has surged to more than $60 billion. This high leverage pattern has stabilized the volatility of Bitcoin prices to a certain extent. Unless there is a major macro-negative event, it is difficult for Bitcoin to reproduce the sharp fluctuations of the past.
Data tracked by Glassnode shows that long-term Bitcoin holders have recently begun to sell off on a large scale, with monthly sales reaching 366,000 BTC, the highest level since April 2024. Data shows that the group holding for 6 to 12 months leads, selling an average of 25,600 BTC per day.
For retail investors, the wealth effect of Bitcoin has obviously weakened, and their willingness to participate has declined accordingly. In this context, market funds have driven the craze for meme coins.
Although meme coins have undergone phased adjustments recently, their market appeal is still significant. As a unique investment category, meme coins have a greater wealth effect on retail funds due to their low market value and limited scale. Recently, Pump.fun protocol revenue surpassed Tether for the first time and became the first in the industry, which shows that the market's enthusiasm for meme coins has not faded. In addition, the revenue of meme-related public chains and infrastructure protocols (such as SOL, RAY, JTO, etc.) is also at the forefront of the industry, further confirming this trend.
StarEx exchange analysts believe that as Bitcoin adjusts sideways around the $100,000 mark, meme coins enter a short-term consolidation phase, and market funds gradually rotate to the altcoin sector, driving a sharp rise in some unpopular old altcoins. Since institutional chips are concentrated in these currencies, it is relatively easy to pull the market.
It is worth noting that from a fundamental perspective, the rebound of altcoins is more of a compensatory rally brought about by the market rotation effect, rather than the start of a trend bull market. Although Ethereum, as a core public chain, has an unshakable ecological status, on-chain transaction activities are still at a low level, and Gas fees are close to historical lows, indicating that the overall market activity is limited; the high FDV valuation and continuous unlocking issues of many altcoins still plague the market. This not only limits the room for their price increases, but may also bring about future selling pressure; unless there is significant application innovation in the altcoin ecosystem, it is difficult for the current rebound to evolve into a comprehensive "altcoin season".
Analysts at StarEx Exchange believe that Ethereum tokens are worth paying attention to in the rebound of altcoins. The crypto ETFs approved by the United States currently only cover Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, the early FUD caused Ethereum tokens to fall sharply, which provided more room for its rebound.
For example, staking tokens: such as LDO; second-layer solutions: such as OP, ZK, STRK and ARB; domain name services: ENS; uni for dex transactions; lending leader aave, etc.
StarEx exchange analysts believe that despite the arrival of the catch-up rally in altcoins, investors need to be alert to potential risks in the market. Bitcoin has quickly risen from $60,000 to $100,000, and its open interest has surged from $35 billion to $64 billion. This high leverage environment increases the possibility of short-term deleveraging in the market. Once the market de-leverages, it may trigger a synchronous pullback of altcoins. If Bitcoin experiences a price pullback caused by short-term deleveraging, there may be an opportunity to enter the market. In this process, it is not advisable to panic too much.
