HashKey Trading Time: On the eve of the Fed's interest rate decision, analysts predict that if Bitcoin breaks through $106,000, it will start a new round of rise

1. Market observation

Keywords: interest rate, ETH, BTC

The Federal Reserve will announce its June interest rate decision at 2 a.m. tomorrow, and the market is paying close attention to officials' expectations of the number of rate cuts this year in the dot plot. Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at financial services company Ebury, said that although two rate cuts this year are still the baseline expectation of most policymakers, a few officials may prefer to cut rates only once, which will affect market sentiment. If the dot plot shows only one rate cut, or Powell says after the meeting that he is not in a hurry to cut rates, the dollar may strengthen as a result. Traders expect the Fed to implement its first rate cut in 2025 in September.

Meanwhile, as the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, global market concerns about crude oil supply continue to heat up. According to ABC, US officials said that the next 24 to 48 hours will be crucial and will determine whether the Israel-Iran issue can be resolved diplomatically or whether Trump will take military action. The United States has sent additional military assets to the Middle East, including aircraft carriers, destroyers and other defensive deployments. However, Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst at Hashkey, pointed out that the calm reaction of the market to the tense situation in the Middle East may be due to the "TACO" factor, that is, the market has become "immune" to Trump's policies, and investors may not over-price the worst development of the situation.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has experienced a pullback due to geopolitical risks, falling to around $103,000 and currently at $105,478. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that although the current price range has not confirmed the bottom, it provides a good opportunity for accumulation. He expects that if Bitcoin can break through $106,000, it will start a new round of strong gains. At the same time, the short-term support level below is around $103,000. If the price falls back and stabilizes, it may rebound, and the lower support level is around $100,000. Analyst Arslan Butt reminds us to pay attention to the two key resistance levels of $108,951 and $110,406. If Bitcoin re-stands above $109,000 and is accompanied by increased trading volume, it can be considered to be bullish. Analyst Anas Hassan believes that if Bitcoin can break through the psychological barriers of $109,507 and $111,991, it is expected to hit the Fibonacci extension target of $119,164. If geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran escalate further, it could undermine the key support area of $104,800–105,400, causing BTC to fall back to $103,100 or even $100,385. As for Ethereum, the price is currently hovering around $2,548, and recent attempts to break through the $2,700 resistance have failed. Analyst Amin Ayan pointed out that although on-chain data shows that whales continue to increase their holdings, bringing long-term bullish signals, the short-term technical situation remains complex and needs to break through $2,600 to re-stimulate upward momentum, while Michaël van de Poppe believes that Ethereum will hit $2,800, followed by altcoins.

In terms of market dynamics, the three major U.S. stock indexes generally closed down, and crypto concept stocks performed weakly, among which TRX concept stock SRM fell by 15.9%. It is worth noting that the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Stablecoin Regulatory Act this morning. This bill established a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, but the market reaction was relatively flat. Related concept stocks such as Circle performed mediocrely, while stablecoin concept coins such as ENA, MKR, and HUMA fell with the market. The market may have digested this good news in advance. In addition, several X platform accounts related to cryptocurrencies such as Pump.Fun and GMGN have been unfrozen. At present, the pre-market price of $PUMP on AEVO is about US$5.8. There are multiple speed pass projects on the chain. Among them, the token $rasmr issued by rasmr, a KOL with 100,000 fans in the cryptocurrency circle, has a speed pass of 16 million US dollars, and its current market value remains around 10 million US dollars; the token $BASEDD related to the live broadcast content platform has a speed pass of 10 million US dollars, but its market value has dropped significantly and is currently about 6.5 million US dollars; in addition, the new token $PAWSE launched by the developer of WIF Hat Dog has a current market value of 70 million US dollars.

2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on June 18)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

Bitcoin: $105,461 (+12.71% YTD), daily spot volume $34.805 billion
Ethereum: $2,535.82 (-24.03% YTD), with a daily spot volume of $22.424 billion
Fear of corruption index: 48 (neutral)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.5 sat/vB ETH: 0.38 Gwei
Market share: BTC 64%, ETH 9.3%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, SNT, ALT
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.1222
Sector gains and losses: GameFi fell 4.6%; NFT sector fell 4.2%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 68,397 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$322 million, including BTC liquidation of US$83.05 million, ETH liquidation of US$102 million, and XRP liquidation of US$7.93 million
BTC medium and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($107,134.00), lower channel line ($105,012.53)
ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($2591.97), lower channel line ($2540.64)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly within the range or in the short term, it is a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of June 17)

Bitcoin ETF: +$216 million (7 consecutive days of net inflow)
Ethereum ETF: +$11,094,700

4. Today’s Outlook

Purpose XRP ETF to be listed on Toronto Stock Exchange on June 18
Sonic will launch the second season of $S airdrop on June 18th, 25% of the airdrop can be claimed immediately
Binance Alpha airdrop will be carried out in two phases starting from June 19
Binance Alpha to List Matchain (MAT) on June 19
Immutable: IMX staking will be launched on Immutable zkEVM on June 19
Melania Meme (MELANIA) will unlock approximately 26.25 million tokens at 8 am on June 18, accounting for 6.58% of the current circulation, worth approximately $6.9 million;
Sonic (S) will unlock approximately 47.63 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 18, accounting for 1.65% of the current circulation, with a value of approximately US$15.8 million;
Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) will unlock approximately 15.53 million tokens at 8 am on June 19, accounting for 5.04% of the current circulation and worth approximately $30.3 million.
US Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) until June 18 (02:00 on June 19): previous value 4.50%, forecast value 4.50%
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference. (June 19, 02:30)

The biggest gainers in the top 500 by market capitalization today: StormX (STMX) rose 434.95%, Altlayer (ALT) rose 13.08%, Status (SNT) rose 11.99%, KUB Coin (KUB) rose 6.78%, and Aleo (ALEO) rose 6.77%.

5. Hot News

This article is supported by HashKey, the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat currency portal in Asia. HashKey Exchange is committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform security.