The strongest long structure in the history of crypto has emerged: the war is easing, interest rate cuts are imminent, ETF funds are entering the market violently, and the bull market is about to brea

So why are we so sure that the bull market is just around the corner? Here is a detailed analysis:

1. The risk of war is lifted and global market sentiment is warming up

Former US President Trump successfully mediated the conflict between Israel and Iran, and Saudi Arabia also expressed support, which greatly reduced market concerns about the outbreak of "all-out war". Although there were still military strikes a few minutes before the ceasefire, this was more like a symbolic tough gesture with little actual effect.

Bitcoin prices have taken the lead in reacting, rebounding from their lows immediately after the ceasefire was announced, fully illustrating the sentiment-driven logic of the market: avoiding war is more important than war itself.

2. The Federal Reserve hinted at an upcoming rate cut, and the macro turning point is coming

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell sent a clear signal in his public speech: "If inflation is lower than expected, interest rates will be cut in advance." The latest CPI released in May was only +0.1%, with year-on-year inflation of 2.4%. Core inflation is also slowing down, providing the Federal Reserve with room for monetary easing.

Wall Street's current expectations for a rate cut in 2024 have risen to 60%, and it could start as early as July or September.

Lower interest rates = lower credit costs = flooding liquidity = rapid increase in the value of risky assets (such as BTC/ETH).

Looking back at the bull market from 2020 to 2021, it was the low interest rate environment that gave rise to the full-scale outbreak of the crypto market.

3. ETF funds violently flowed in, and institutional FOMO was fully launched

Last week, the net inflow of crypto ETP products reached $1.24 billion, a record high. Blackstone's Bitcoin ETF increased its holdings by $1.3 billion against the trend during the market turmoil. Institutional investors are no longer on the sidelines, but the main force that actively enters the market.

In addition, 129 listed companies already hold Bitcoin, including fund management institutions such as ProCap, which is raising $750 million specifically to buy crypto assets.

This is not the bear market pessimism of 2022, but a reappearance of the structural bull market in Q3 2020 - but this time there is ETF support.

4. On-chain data is healthy and the market structure has flipped

BTC Dominance Rises
Fear and Greed Index rebounds from 'fear' zone
Liquidation volumes are extremely low and the market is deleveraged

At the same time, on-chain data shows that the proportion of "long-term holders" has increased significantly, capital inflows have continued to accelerate, short-selling power has weakened, and a bull market structure has gradually been established.

From the perspective of money supply, US M2 has started to pick up since Q2 this year. According to Bitcoin's reaction rule of 6-10 months lag, Q4 2024 is exactly the starting point of the cycle.

in conclusion:

Israel and Iran have reached a ceasefire, and the risk of war has been lifted; inflation is cooling down rapidly, and the Federal Reserve is about to start a new round of interest rate cuts; ETF institutional funds continue to flow in; and the on-chain data structure is being optimized. All signals indicate that this is the start of a systemic bull market, not a short-term rebound.

Those who "buy fear" in May and June may see huge returns in November and December.

Now, there is only one condition left for the next historic market outbreak: whether you are in the right place and make the right decision.