Original author: Nick Devor
Original translation by Peggy, BlockBeats
"Musk as president?" Polymarket traders just can't resist betting on that.
Last month, Polymarket hosted a "war room" event at a bar in Washington, D.C., where visitors could view live market odds. (Théo Marie-Courtois / AFP via Getty Images)
The winner of the 2028 US presidential election is now a hot prediction market on Polymarket. Event contracts related to the three frontrunners—JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, and Marco Rubio—have totaled $35 million in trading volume. But Polymarket traders seem to prefer betting on "underdogs," including even some who are constitutionally barred from serving as president.
Elon Musk, CEO of New York City, has attracted $23 million in bets on Polymarket's 2028 election market; New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has also seen $18 million in related bets. Neither candidate is a U.S.-born citizen and therefore ineligible to be sworn in as president. Polymarket gives both candidates a less than 1% chance of winning, reflecting these real-world limitations, but their significantly higher-than-average betting volume doesn't reflect this.
According to Barron's analysis of publicly available Polymarket data, presidential candidates with less than a 1% chance of winning have generated approximately $386 million in betting activity. These "super underdog" bets account for more than two-thirds of all betting activity related to the 2028 election.
It remains unclear why traders are willing to spend money on these extremely disadvantaged candidates, or even those who are not even eligible to run. This phenomenon also appears to contradict the public statements made by Polymarket CEO and founder Shayne Coplan regarding the platform's purpose. He has described his platform as a "global truth machine" for elections.
In the 2028 election market, the most crowded trade actually belongs to basketball superstar LeBron James. Trades involving him totaled $48 million, accounting for 9% of the total market volume. The second most traded was that of Minnesota's incumbent governor, Tim Walz, who has signaled his withdrawal from elected politics. Third place went to Kim Kardashian, with related trades reaching $34 million.
Polymarket's trading volume is highly concentrated on non-traditional candidates, some of whom are not even qualified to run for president.
In multiple markets, Polymarket trading shows a clear concentration on "underdogs." In markets related to the 2028 presidential election, the upcoming World Cup, and the NBA championship, candidates or participants with a winning percentage below 1% account for approximately 70% of total trading volume.
When asked why "niche bets" are so popular on the platform, Polymarket declined to comment.
Some Polymarket traders interviewed by Barron's offered an explanation: Polymarket is expected to mint and distribute a crypto token to users sometime this year. These traders speculated that the final number of tokens a user receives might be related to total trading activity. In this way, betting a small amount of money on a highly improbable outcome like "Kardashian becoming president" could help inflate this metric.
Up to 70% of the trading volume on Polymarket is bet on competitors with a win rate of less than 1%.
Polymarket has confirmed that it will launch a token. "There will be tokens, and there will be airdrops," Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer, Matthew Modabber, stated in a podcast interview in October. However, as of now, Polymarket has not explained how the tokens will be distributed, and the company has declined to provide further clarification.
Polymarket's preference for "underdogs" seems like an anomaly in the world of prediction markets. On its competitor Kalshi, trading volume in the presidential election winners' market is clearly concentrated on popular candidates.
In Kalshi's presidential election market, bets on Marco Rubio accounted for 10.6% of total trading volume; compared to only 1.7% on Polymarket. Tim Walz's trading volume was only 0.7% on Kalshi, but a whopping 7.4% on Polymarket. As for Polymarket's top traders, James, Kardashian, and Michelle Obama, they were nowhere to be seen in Kalshi's market.
