VanEck Analyst: Bitcoin Shows Two Historical Bullish Signals: Declining Hashrate and Negative Funding Fees

PANews reported on April 26th that VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush analyzed two historically bullish signals for Bitcoin: negative funding rates and a concentrated decline in hash rate, along with cooling volatility. With the easing of US-Iran tensions, Bitcoin's realized volatility dropped from 56% to 41%, while the 7-day average funding rate turned negative to -1.8%, the lowest level since 2023. Historically, negative funding rates have typically foreshadowed strong future returns: since 2020, the 30-day average Bitcoin return during periods of negative funding rates has been +11.5%, while the overall return has been +4.5%, a hit rate of 77%. Funding rates below -5% delivered a +19.4% return over a 30-day period. Furthermore, the hash rate has fallen to its 16th percentile in the past 30 days, the most concentrated decline since the mining ban in 2021. In the past seven instances of hashrate decline, Bitcoin prices rose after 90 days in six of them, with a median increase of +37.7%.

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Author: PA一线

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