Trading Moment: BTC is surging towards 80,000 again; it needs to hold the key support level of 77,000.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

The S&P 500 closed strongly on Friday, rising 0.8% to a record high of 7165.08 points, while the Nasdaq surged 1.6% to 24836.60 points, also setting a new record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, dipped slightly by 0.16%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures continued their upward trend today. Goldman Sachs hedge fund head Tony Pasquariello warned that systemic and active fund buying has cooled significantly, and the market's internal structure is becoming more cautious.

Meanwhile, despite headwinds, Japanese and South Korean stock markets both hit record highs. The Nikkei 225 index rose 1.93% to 60,876 points, while the South Korean KOSPI index surged over 2.5% to 6,657 points. South Korean ruling party leader Chung Chung-rae declared the end of the "Korean discount" era and predicted the KOSPI index would target the 7,000-8,000 point mark.

The historic breakthroughs in Japanese and South Korean stock markets owe much to the technology and semiconductor sectors. Citigroup analysts stated that South Korea's chip exports in the first 20 days of April reached a record high, with full-month exports projected to surge 46.3% year-on-year. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs both raised their target prices for the South Korean stock market to over 8,000 points, with Goldman Sachs even significantly increasing its earnings growth forecast for South Korean companies this year from 130% to 220%, reflecting the explosive growth in demand for AI semiconductors.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin has recently been fluctuating wildly between $77,000 and $79,000, approaching the psychological and key options resistance level of $80,000. Over the past eight days, spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $2.12 billion in inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $1.6 billion, pushing up the average cost per ETF holder to approximately $81,000.

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin realized volatility has decreased from 56% to 41%, and the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been positive for 19 consecutive days since April 9th, marking the strongest inflow of US funds in six months. Furthermore, the $80,000 level is surrounded by approximately $30 million in whale sell orders, 7,200 BTC in option Gamma exposure, and the break-even point for a large number of ETF buyers . This position also coincides with realized prices for short-term holders and a high volume of open call options, suggesting that market makers' dynamic hedging will create significant concentrated selling pressure here.

Bearish view

Core logic: Limited macro liquidity, historical cycle patterns indicating the rebound has peaked, market sentiment lacks substantial enthusiasm, and there is a risk of a deep correction in the short term.

Matthew Hyland: The market lacks genuine euphoria, and the current rally is accompanied by bearish calls. This is a typical "disbelief" rally, and Bitcoin is expected to see another bottoming out in October.
Michael Terpin (the godfather of crypto): Based on the historical average retracement cycle, the price of Bitcoin may bottom out at $57,000 in October 2026.
Alex Xu: The potential energy driving the BTC surge is insufficient, and sovereign nation adoption is falling short of expectations; the overall slump in the crypto industry is causing the base to shrink; and the increased funding costs (up to 11.5%) for the largest buyer, MicroStrategy, will trigger marginal selling pressure.
Killa: Macroeconomic data has already been priced in, May's historical performance has been weak, and the characteristics of a bear market rally are evident. We maintain our short-selling plan from 120,000, believing the market is far from bottoming out and will face even lower prices in the third quarter.
LP: The four consecutive weeks of gains are highly similar to the 2018 bear market, and the upcoming timeframe is very likely to form a local top and trigger a significant pullback.
Ted: Historically, changes in the Federal Reserve leadership (such as Kevin Warsh taking office) have been accompanied by Bitcoin crashes of 61%-84% (when Yellen and Powell took office), and history may repeat itself; moreover, there is still a CME gap to be filled at $84,000.
Murphy: The real market average price ($78,000) and the realized price for short-term holders ($80,000) are about to converge, which has often foreshadowed strong selling pressure and a price drop over the past 13 years.

bullish view

Core logic: The regulatory environment has ushered in an epically favorable period, institutional funds have flowed back in strongly, on-chain indicators resonate with historical bullish signals, and a major upward wave will begin after breaking through resistance.

Forbes: The U.S. SEC reiterated its support for innovation and proposed to grant "innovation exemptions." Coupled with the support of the Trump administration, the regulatory shift is seen as the most friendly in history, and institutional funds are expected to enter the market strongly, which is expected to push BTC to stabilize at $80,000.
VanEck analysts have identified two historically bullish signals for Bitcoin: negative funding fees and a concentrated decline in hash rate. Historical data shows that during periods of negative funding fees, the average 30-day return is as high as +11.5%, with a hit rate of 77%.
Ali Charts: The BTC Sharpe ratio has recovered from an extreme safe-haven level of -43 to 20.35, indicating that the market has digested the volatility and is moving towards a more favorable risk-adjusting environment; if the $77,000 support level holds, the target will be $84,500.
Michaël van de Poppe: If it breaks through $79,000, it will open the door to $86,000-$89,000; if it breaks through further, the target of over $100,000 will become a reality.

Ethereum price quotes

Ethereum's price has recently been fluctuating between $2,300 and $2,400, becoming a focal point of contention between bulls and bears. Analyst Ted points out that if ETH successfully breaks through $2,400, it could potentially reach the $2,470-$2,500 liquidity pool; however, if it falls below $2,300, the price may quickly retreat to the strong support level of $2,150-$2,200 to seek buying support.

Meanwhile, analyst Michaël van de Poppe suggests that Ethereum may follow Bitcoin into an upward trend. After three months of consolidation, ETH is highly likely to break through the $2,427 resistance level, and it's expected to move beyond the first resistance zone of $2,755, with a rebound to around $3,400 being a more reasonable expectation. If Bitcoin continues its rebound, the altcoin market will see an even stronger surge.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on April 27)

(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: Net inflows of $824 million last week, marking the fourth consecutive week of net inflows.
Ethereum ETF: Net inflows of $155 million last week, marking the third consecutive week of net inflows.
SOL ETF: Net inflow of $9.44 million last week
XRP ETF: Net inflow of $15.74 million last week
Fear of Greed Index: 47 (Neutral)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: ORCA, ZBT, BTC, ETH, ENSO
Sector Performance: The NFT sector rose 3.85% in the last 24 hours, while the DeFi sector rose 3.74%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 67,309 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $233 million, including $84.13 million in BTC liquidations, $75.43 million in ETH liquidations, and $5.38 million in ZBT liquidations.

Today's Outlook

Sources: The second round of US-Iran talks is scheduled for April 27.
The Clarity Act, originally scheduled for consideration in the week of April 27, may be postponed until May.
Polymarket will be undergoing a V2 exchange upgrade on April 28th, with an estimated downtime of approximately one hour.
Binance will delist VINEUSDT and AIUSDT perpetual contracts on April 28.
Binance will delist DEGO, DENT, and TRU spot trading on April 28.
Everstake will withdraw from the Celestia validator network by April 28.
Jupiter (JUP) will unlock approximately 53.47 million tokens, worth about $9.2 million, on April 28.
Sign (SIGN) will unlock approximately 401 million tokens, worth about $7 million, on April 28.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Manadia up 39.2%, Pudgy Penguins up 10.1%, Jupiter up 5%, Rain up 4.3%, and Aerodrome Finance up 3.5%.