Bank of America warns of a series of bear market signals in US stocks

PANews reported on June 9th that, according to Jinshi, Bank of America Securities stated that investors should remain cautious about US stocks, as increasing bearish signals indicate the market is nearing its peak. A team of strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a report dated June 5th that approximately 70% of bearish signals have already been triggered, consistent with the average level during historical market tops. The S&P 500 index shows "statistical overvaluation" in 17 out of 20 valuation metrics, with eight of these metrics even exceeding levels seen during the tech bubble. Furthermore, high P/E ratio stocks are significantly outperforming undervalued stocks, which strategists consider a "sign of excessive speculation." Within the technology sector, the gap between the best and worst performing quintiles has widened to its highest level since February 2000.

The S&P 500's strong performance "masks the dramatic internal divergence," with the return gap between the top 10% and bottom 10% of the index's components widening to its highest level since the pandemic over the past three months. While some tech stocks remain fundamentally healthy, Subramanian notes: "Cash flow conversion rates have stagnated, the supply of investment-grade bonds and stocks is increasing, share buybacks as a percentage of market capitalization are declining, and the ratio of capital expenditures to operating cash flow for hyperscale cloud computing companies is expected to approach 100% by the end of the year, up from 40% in 2023."

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Author: PA一线

This content is for market information only and is not investment advice.

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