PANews reported on June 13th that, according to CCTV Finance, on SpaceX's first day of trading, only 4.2% of the total shares were available for trading. Demand far exceeded supply, and high subscription enthusiasm made the short-term surge in share price unsurprising. However, the company's price-to-sales ratio has exceeded 112 times, far surpassing Tesla's 15 times and chip giant Nvidia's nearly 20 times.
In short, SpaceX's business exhibits a pattern of "one profitable segment and two loss-making segments." Starlink is undoubtedly its "cash cow." According to its prospectus, this satellite internet business generated $11.39 billion in revenue last year, accounting for 61% of SpaceX's total revenue, and is expected to serve over 10 million users by the end of 2025. The company also plans to acquire spectrum and add 15,000 satellites to expand its direct-connection mobile phone business, potentially covering approximately 6 billion mobile phone users worldwide.
The rocket launch business accounts for about 80% of the global commercial rocket launch market thanks to its reuse technology, but it still lost $657 million last year. Moreover, if Starship is to achieve a manned landing on Mars, it will still need a lot of investment and technological iteration.
xAI and its future space computing business are considered "money-burning black holes." Some organizations estimate that, at the current rate of loss, xAI alone could deplete Starlink's profits within the next four quarters. According to its prospectus, SpaceX has accumulated losses of $41.3 billion since its founding in 2002.
This fundamental business situation has led to extreme divergence in valuations among different institutions. Investment banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, as underwriters for SpaceX's IPO, are bullish on Starlink's competitive advantage and the growth potential of its AI business; while long-term institutions like the Danish pension fund argue that the company's market capitalization is inflated, believing that a reasonable market value should not exceed $1 trillion based on discounted cash flow calculations. Fidelity, an asset management firm favoring conservative investments, bluntly states that approximately 30% of SpaceX's valuation is a premium due to Musk's personal brand and the AI concept.
