PANews, June 19 – According to NYDIG analysis, Bitcoin has pulled back approximately 52% from its October 2025 high of around $126,000. Its "Bitcoin Cycle Narrative Framework" indicates that the market is currently in an incomplete contraction phase, with no bottom signals yet such as long-term holder capitulation, systemic bankruptcies, and a "reset." The two structural demand pillars that supported the market in 2025 — net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury Bitcoin purchases — weakened significantly in 2026: ETFs shifted from sustained net inflows to heightened volatility, with single-week redemptions reaching 15,000–25,000 BTC, while corporate buying became highly concentrated in a few DAT companies, and some miners turned into net sellers. Meanwhile, Bitcoin historically exhibits weak seasonal performance from May to September, with average and median returns turning negative in August and September. NYDIG believes that against the backdrop of a contraction phase combined with weak summer seasonality, further downside risks for Bitcoin remain, and any upside may depend on a stabilization and recovery in ETF flows and stablecoin balances.