PANews, June 20 – According to a CNBC report, as the potential IPOs of tech companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic approach, California is expected to see a wave of IPO-related tax revenue growth, though the actual scale and predictability remain highly uncertain. It is reported that a SpaceX listing could become one of California’s historic tax revenue sources, but due to its special employee equity incentive structure (RSU single-trigger vesting mechanism) and long-term prepaid tax arrangements, some tax revenue has already been realized before the IPO, weakening the traditional model of a "concentrated IPO tax windfall."

California’s finance department and the Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) noted that compared to Facebook’s 2012 IPO, which brought in approximately $1.3 billion in tax revenue, the current mega-scale IPOs theoretically have higher tax potential. However, due to complex employee shareholding structures, early selling activity, and increased use of tax avoidance tools, actual revenue may be more dispersed and harder to predict. Overall, while California is likely to benefit from a "super IPO cycle," the tax structure is shifting from a "concentrated one-time windfall" to "long-term dispersed realization," making the fiscal increment more volatile and uncertain.