PANews, June 23 – CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin price has fallen back to around $62,000, and the market has returned to an unrealized loss state. The realized market cap drawdown for short-term holders (STH) has deepened to -56%, compared to just -26% three months ago, indicating a significant contraction in capital among the short-term holder cohort. Meanwhile, the realized market cap drawdown for long-term holders (LTH) remains near zero, showing no large-scale capital flight from long-term holders.

The aNUPL indicator has fallen below zero, currently at -0.14, whereas it was near zero a month ago, indicating that the market has been in a loss-stress zone for about three consecutive months. However, the value has not yet reached the extreme levels of deep capitulation seen in previous cycles (around -0.4), suggesting that while current market pressure is real, it is primarily concentrated among short-term holders rather than representing a systemic market-wide collapse. The analyst noted that if aNUPL moves to -0.3 or below, it would confirm market deterioration; if the long-term holder drawdown clearly breaks below zero, it would indicate that pressure has extended beyond weak hands; and if aNUPL recovers above zero, it would confirm that pressure is easing.