PANews June 26 – Gate Research released a report titled “World Cup Ignites Prediction Markets, Sports Become Core Growth Engine.” The report notes that the World Cup is becoming a critical scenario for prediction markets to reach mass trading. Leveraging global attention, high-frequency events, strong emotional engagement, and a natural probability language, sports prediction markets have become the most important growth engine for prediction markets. In the first week of the World Cup, the nominal weekly trading volume of the sports sector in mainstream prediction markets exceeded $7 billion, with Kalshi and Polymarket together contributing over 98% of the volume. Sports prediction markets have already entered a phase of tens of billions of dollars in weekly turnover.

The report believes that prediction markets are driving sports betting to evolve from fixed-odds models to tradable probability markets. The World Cup has established a three-layer trading structure consisting of championship outcomes, qualification paths, and single-match markets, with the single-match market becoming a key source of liquidity. AI models provide structured pre-match prior probabilities, while prediction markets form dynamic posteriors through real-money trading. Combining the two is expected to further improve price discovery efficiency. The report also points out that Gate is building its prediction market into an event trading terminal that integrates championship probabilities, single-match markets, AI signals, news interpretation, and portfolio trading, thereby promoting the popularization of probability trading to a broader user base.