Trading Moment: Awaiting Non-Farm Payrolls and Nvidia Earnings Report Guidance; Bitcoin Shorts Gather in $94,000-$96,000 Range

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Following the longest government shutdown in history, back-to-date data on labor force and inflation are gradually returning: key data including the September non-farm payroll report , weekly initial jobless claims, PPI, and import/export price indices are about to be released, and the CFTC will also resume publishing trader positioning reports. These macroeconomic variables will determine the performance of liquidity and risk assets next year, and the market is awaiting key economic data and policy actions that could change direction. Internationally, according to Japan's Kyodo News, the Chinese government has informed Japan of a suspension of imports of Japanese seafood . This comes less than six months after China conditionally resumed imports of some Japanese seafood in June. Affected by this, seafood stocks such as Guolian Aquatic Products, Haodangjia, and Dahu Shares saw their prices immediately hit the daily limit after the afternoon opening.

The future of artificial intelligence is currently almost entirely tied to the upcoming earnings report from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. Amidst the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and the heavy pressure on the AI sector, this report is seen as a crucial "thermometer" for assessing the sustainability of the AI boom. Market concerns exist that persistently high interest rates will increase the difficulty of financing for AI companies, dragging down the entire sector. A Bank of America survey shows that a net 20% of fund managers believe companies are over-investing in AI, and 45% of respondents consider an "AI bubble" the biggest tail risk in the market. This concern has already led to a more than 5% drop in the Nasdaq index this month, and a more than 10% decline in Nvidia's stock price. Despite market doubts about the valuation and sustainability of capital expenditures in AI, expectations for Nvidia's performance remain optimistic, with analysts generally predicting a 56% year-over-year revenue increase. Huang's previously revealed over $500 billion in chip orders for 2025-2026, along with the company's strategic investments in OpenAI, Intel, and others, have injected confidence into the industry. Therefore, Jensen Huang's statements on future guidance, demand conditions, and challenges in the Chinese market during the earnings call will play a decisive role in stabilizing investor sentiment and even reversing the downward trend of tech stocks. Meanwhile, Google released its next-generation AI model, Gemini 3, and this technological breakthrough also brought a glimmer of positive news to the volatile AI market.

The Bitcoin market recently rebounded after falling below $90,000, experiencing significant volatility and mixed opinions. Delphi Digital analyst hat1618guy points out that Bitcoin is currently in a historically low volatility state, indicating potential sharp changes within the next one to two weeks. Regarding the market outlook, several analysts have expressed a more optimistic view: Fundstrat's Tom Lee and Bitwise's Matt Hougan both believe the market is nearing its bottom, presenting a "once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity"; DeFiance Capital's Arthur Cheong sees $90,000 to $92,000 as strong support and predicts a rebound; 21Shares believes Bitcoin's volatility and consolidation may continue until the end of the year before a rebound; Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick believes the current approximately 30% correction is nearing its end, with selling pressure likely exhausted, and also anticipates a rebound before the end of the year; furthermore, Wintermute states that market liquidity is expected to improve in Q1 2026. However, crypto trader KillaXBT points out that short positions in Bitcoin are accumulating in the $94,000 to $96,000 range, potentially forming a lower high on a higher timeframe. A short-term rebound of 3-5% is possible, but a break above the yearly opening price of $93,600 is needed to escape the consolidation. Analysts Astronomer and Ali predict that the price may first rebound to $97,000 or $99,000, before falling to $87,000 and $81,000 respectively.

Cautious voices also exist: Arthur Hayes warned that a tightening of dollar liquidity could cause Bitcoin to pull back to the $80,000-$85,000 range in the short term, but he also predicted that if the Federal Reserve accelerates its easing measures afterward, the price could surge to $200,000-$250,000 by the end of the year. CryptoQuant's Axel Adler Jr. drew three "lifelines" at $87,000, $79,000, and $74,000, believing that holding these price levels is key to judging whether a bull market correction or the start of a bear market is imminent. It's worth noting that Mt. Gox transferred nearly $1 billion worth of Bitcoin yesterday, but the market reaction was calm, interpreted as a signal that "the bad news has been priced in."

Ethereum also performed weakly in this market correction, with its price falling by over 20% in November, entering a range historically considered a "buying zone." However, the short-term market structure remains fragile. Analyst Man of Bitcoin points out that as long as the price fails to break through $3,658, its downtrend will continue, with resistance at $3,223 to $3,560. Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua suggests that, given the current uncertainty, spot buying in the $3,000 to $3,300 range is advisable, maintaining positions and avoiding leverage. From an on-chain liquidity perspective, although the price drop has cleared some long leverage, Hyblock Capital data shows dense liquidation clusters around $2,904 and $2,760, suggesting the market may require deeper liquidity cleansing to form a solid bottom.

Altcoins like Solana are showing signs of decoupling from traditional financial markets. Despite a general decline in US stocks, they rebounded strongly from the weekly support level of $130, and market analysts believe their price may return above $200. Other altcoins also performed well, with ASTER rising 16% in a single day and STRK recovering its price driven by privacy concepts. Regarding project updates, Filecoin hinted at a shift from storage to on-chain cloud services and launched its testnet, but its price did not rise; instead, it fell by more than 10%.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on November 19)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

Bitcoin: $90,589 (down 3.21% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $85.64 billion.
Ethereum: $3,030 (down 9.27% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $33.75 billion.
Fear of Greed Index: 16 (Extreme Fear)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.02 sat/vB, ETH: 0.067 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 11.9%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: BTC, XRP, ETH, SOL, MET2
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.05% / 50.95%
Sector Performance: The DeFi sector fell 1.67%, and the DePin blockchain sector fell 2.03%.
24-hour liquidation data : A total of 113,072 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $273 million. Among them, $87.39 million was liquidated in BTC, $73.42 million in ETH, and $12.04 million in SOL.

3. ETF Flows (as of November 18)

Bitcoin ETF: -$373 million
Ethereum ETF: -$74.22 million
Solana ETF: +$30.09 million
XRP ETF: +$8.32 million

4. Today's Outlook

Binance Futures will delist RUNEUSD coin-margined perpetual contracts.
Injective: A new $INJ community buyback will launch on November 20th.
USDai will increase its trading limit by $250 million on November 20th.
The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting (November 20, 03:00).
Nvidia will release its earnings report after the market closes (November 20, 05:00).
US September unemployment rate : Previous value 4.3%, expected value 4.3% (November 20, 21:30)
US September Non-Farm Payrolls Change (in thousands): Previous value 54,000, expected value 22,000 (November 20, 21:30)
YZY (YZY) will unlock approximately 37.5 million tokens at 1 PM Beijing time on November 19th, representing 12.50% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $14.1 million.
LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock approximately 25.71 million tokens at 7 PM Beijing time on November 20th, representing 7.29% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $38.3 million.
KAITO will unlock approximately 8.35 million tokens at 8 PM Beijing time on November 20th, representing 2.97% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $6.4 million.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Starknet up 19%, AB up 13.9%, Aster up 7.7%, Story up 6.7%, and Telcoin up 5.6%.