Trading Moments: Discussions of an AI bubble in US stocks intensify; Bitcoin's pullback from year-to-date gains reinforces bearish signals; Zcash exhibits independent price action.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The market is currently shrouded in multiple uncertainties surrounding the economy, technology, and geopolitics. One focal point is the growing concern about an AI bubble, a strong signal of which is reflected in the recent actions of Silicon Valley investor Peter Thiel. His Thiel Macro LLC fund completely liquidated its holdings in Nvidia, considered a leader in AI, in the third quarter, and drastically reduced its total US stock holdings from $212 million to $74.4 million, instead establishing new positions in Microsoft and Apple. This move is seen as a warning sign of short-term overheating in the AI market. This concern is not isolated; Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has also warned of a potential 12-24 month market correction, and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has described the AI boom as an "industrial bubble." Despite these short-term risks, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about structural trends in its ten-year outlook, believing that artificial intelligence and emerging markets will define the next decade, and predicting an annualized growth rate of 7.7% for global equities.

Meanwhile, the upcoming release of the October FOMC meeting minutes is expected to present a hawkish outlook, with market expectations for a December rate cut falling below 50%. Furthermore, key economic data, such as the September non-farm payroll report and Q3 GDP figures, which were delayed due to the US government shutdown, will be released successively, providing the market with a delayed economic snapshot. Globally, Japanese stocks are showing initial signs of weakness, with the Nikkei 225 index falling 0.52%, and travel-related stocks suffering losses due to China issuing travel advisories.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin is facing a severe test, with its price once falling below $93,000, wiping out all of its gains in 2025. The core drivers of this decline include reduced institutional participation, a "risk-averse" macroeconomic environment, and its high correlation with tech stocks—its 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has risen to 0.80, the highest since 2022. Analysts have differing opinions, creating a complex situation of mixed bullish and bearish sentiment. Analysts such as Ash Crypto point out that Bitcoin's weekly close fell below the 50-week moving average for the first time since March 2023. If it can hold this level, it may become a temporary bottom. If BTC closes above $103,000, further risks can be avoided. Open4profit suggests two possibilities: a drop to $92,773 or a rebound to $99,523. Some analysts hold a pessimistic outlook. AlphaBTC believes that the market may experience a final round of selling before the release of key data, with the price potentially falling below $90,000. However, optimistic voices also exist. Kim Young-hoon, hailed as the world's smartest person, predicts Bitcoin will reach $220,000 within 45 days. Analysts Sykodelic and Astronomer believe the market bottom is forming and have begun building long positions, targeting $108,000 and $112,000 respectively. Crypto Chase is also gradually building positions, with a target price of $110,000. Notably, despite the weak price, institutions such as Harvard University and the Abu Dhabi Investment Committee are still increasing their Bitcoin holdings through ETFs.

Ethereum's price movement has largely mirrored Bitcoin's, briefly dipping to the $3,000 mark. Despite short-term pressure, some analysts see potential opportunities. For example, analyst Crypto Chase, while gradually building a long position in Ethereum, has set a target price of $4,000, believing the current pullback provides room for a rebound. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee offers a more macro perspective, arguing that the current market decline has exposed issues such as the fragility of some market makers' balance sheets, but these pains are temporary and will not change Wall Street's long-term goal of building an "ETH supercycle." He specifically cautions against using leverage in the current environment and predicts that internal market issues may take six to eight weeks to resolve.

However, the market did not collapse across the board. Zcash (ZEC) exhibited a remarkable independent performance, with a correlation as low as -0.7 to -0.8 with the market. Its price was entirely driven by its own narrative, especially after Starknet proposed building an L2 solution for it, which brought renewed attention to the privacy sector. This divergence confirms analyst Aylo's view that the market is entering a "post-speculative era," where tokens lacking fundamentals and real value are being abandoned, while projects with product-market fit will stand out. Meanwhile, the decoupling of the Yala stablecoin also served as a warning sign of risk for the market.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, November 17)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

Bitcoin: $95,086.8 (year-to-date +2.0%), daily spot trading volume $78.47 billion.
Ethereum: $3,178 (-4.8% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $33.75 billion.
Fear of Greed Index: 15 (Extreme Fear)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.02 sat/vB, ETH: 0.067 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 11.9%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: BTC, XRP, ETH, SOL, WCT
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 47.99%/52.01%
Sector Performance: AI sector fell 2.67%, DePin sector fell 2.33%.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 151,811 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $620 million. This included $244 million in BTC liquidations, $170 million in ETH liquidations, and $31.87 million in ZEC liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of November 14)

Bitcoin ETF: -$492 million
Ethereum ETF: -$177.9 million
Solana ETF: +$12.04 million, marking the 14th consecutive day of net inflows.
XRP ETF: +$243 million
Hedera ETF: -$1.71 million

4. Today's Outlook

The biggest drops in the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today were: Dash down 10%, Internet Computer down 7.9%, Monero down 7.1%, Pump.fun down 7%, and Aerodrome Finance down 6.9%.