Trading Moments: Bitcoin rebounds to $93,000 and targets $97,000; Ethereum bulls hope to break through $3,200.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Markets are closely watching the future direction of US monetary policy. US President Trump has made it clear that he plans to nominate a new Federal Reserve Chairman in early 2026, and has hinted that Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, is his preferred candidate. Trump has long criticized current Chairman Powell for his slow action on interest rate cuts and hopes his successor will be more proactive in pushing for easing policies. Although the final nominee must be confirmed by the Senate, and the shortlist includes veterans such as Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, market focus is already on the potential policy shift.

Meanwhile, Amazon Web Services (AWS) unveiled its next-generation AI chip, Trainium 3, at its annual conference and previewed support for Nvidia's NVLink-enabled Trainium 4. AWS also released the Nova 2 series of models and several innovative services, aiming to further challenge Nvidia and Google's market position in the AI field. This move boosted Amazon's stock price, while Nvidia and AMD's stock prices came under pressure. Overall, despite the recent strong performance of US stocks, macroeconomic uncertainties, intensified technological competition, and divergent market sentiment make future trends highly unpredictable.

The Bitcoin market has recently experienced significant volatility, rebounding strongly after briefly falling to $83,800 and returning above $93,800, sparking heated debate among analysts about its future direction. Optimists believe a new upward trend may have begun. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe points out that breaking through $92,000 is key to testing the $100,000 mark. Nick Ruck also suggests that, thanks to macroeconomic factors such as expectations of a Fed rate cut and ETF inflows, Bitcoin is poised to return to $100,000 in the coming months. A Bitwise report, analyzing global money supply, argues that Bitcoin's current value is severely undervalued, with its model's fair value approaching $270,000. Technical analysts Man of Bitcoin and Axel Bitblaze also hold positive views; the former sets a target price of $96,965, while the latter believes $80,000 may be the bottom of the cycle, with a potential break above $100,000 by the end of the year, noting that short-selling above $93,000 could provide further upward momentum.

However, the market is also filled with cautious and bearish voices. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone warned that Bitcoin could retest $50,000. BRN research director Timothy Misir observed that the slowdown in whale wallets' accumulation while retail investors accelerated their buying is a typical sign of late-cycle vulnerability. Analyst Murphy emphasized that if the price falls below $80,000, it will cause a large number of long-term holders to turn into paper losses, triggering price sensitivity risks. Meanwhile, F2Pool data shows that at the current price, most older mining rigs are already shut down at a loss, which poses potential selling pressure on the market. Technically, analysts are generally focusing on the key support area of $86,000-$88,000, and a break below this level could trigger a wider sell-off. In addition, the market is also profoundly affected by the traditional financial sector and the real economy. For example, Strategy updated its fiscal year 2025 earnings forecast based on the Bitcoin price range, and its revenue target is closely linked to whether Bitcoin can stabilize in the $85,000-$110,000 range.

The Ethereum market also faces a critical juncture. While its price has rebounded above $3,000, market sentiment remains generally skeptical. Derivatives market data shows that the annualized premium for Ethereum futures remains low at 3%, while the premium for put options relative to call options is widening, indicating that traders are still actively hedging downside risk and lack confidence in further price increases. Fundamentally, the Ethereum network faces challenges, with weekly network fees falling sharply by 49% and DEX trading volume shrinking. Against this backdrop, analysts have offered different price path predictions. The bearish view suggests that a break below key support could lead to a deep correction. Glassnode's MVRV model indicates that a break below the support zone around $2,820 would target $2,500. A bearish pennant pattern on the daily chart points to the $2,200-$2,220 area. However, the market still holds upward hope. Analyst Don points to a descending wedge pattern that preserves the possibility of a rebound to $3,550. According to Fibonacci retracement levels, Man of Bitcoin predicts the price may test $3,216. Analyst Wolf believes the market is approaching a key level: the neckline of a head and shoulders bottom pattern near $3,700. Whether this level can be broken will determine the continuation of the bull market.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, December 3)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

Bitcoin: $93,546 (-0.34% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $89.26 billion.
Ethereum: $3,023 (down 7.12% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $29.26 billion.
Fear of Greed Index: 28 (Fear)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.04 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 11.6%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ETH, SOL, SUI
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 51.32% / 48.68%
Sector Performance: The crypto market rebounded across the board, with most sectors rising by approximately 3% to 12% in the last 24 hours. The NFT sector, in particular, rose by 11.87%.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 107,343 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $415 million. This included $208 million in BTC liquidations, $70.18 million in ETH liquidations, and $19.54 million in ZEC liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of December 2nd)

Bitcoin ETF: +$58,499,500
Ethereum ETF: -$9,912,100
Solana ETF: +$45.77 million
XRP ETF: +$67.74 million

4. Today's Outlook

Today's top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization saw the following largest gains: Sui (up 30.2%), Pudgy Penguins (up 26.4%), Chainlink (up 18.9%), Virtuals Protocol (up 18.7%), and Pepe (up 18.5%).