Trading Moment: Expectations of the RMB breaking 7 are rising; Bitcoin needs to break 96,000 to confirm a trend reversal.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The US labor market has recently shown conflicting signals. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 191,000 last week, the lowest level since September of last year, indicating the resilience of the job market; however, continuing claims remain high at 1.94 million, reflecting the structural difficulties faced by the unemployed in finding new jobs. Against this backdrop, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at its December 10 meeting have risen to 87% . Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, predicts the Fed may cut rates by 25 basis points. Furthermore, the Fed's quantitative tightening policy has ended, and the market expects a monthly "reserve management purchase" program of approximately $35 billion to begin as early as January next year to supplement liquidity. Although officials emphasize that this is not a new round of quantitative easing, investors still see it as a dovish signal. Meanwhile, the US Treasury market has surpassed $30 trillion for the first time . On the other hand, the Bank of Japan plans to raise interest rates this month , potentially reaching a 28-year high.

The RMB has recently benefited from multiple positive factors, including a weakening US dollar, the increased attractiveness of Chinese assets, and strong corporate demand for foreign exchange settlement, resulting in a significant appreciation trend. The market is hotly debating whether it can break the 7.0 mark in the short term. The mainstream view is that the RMB has a high probability of breaking 7.0 in the short term, but some analysts point out that even if it does break 7, its ability to maintain a stable level remains uncertain, and the People's Bank of China may intend to maintain two-way fluctuations in the exchange rate. Furthermore, the US PCE inflation data to be released this Friday will be an important reference for the global economic trend and the Federal Reserve's policy.

In the field of artificial intelligence , market competition is intensifying. Moore Threads, hailed as the "first domestically produced GPU stock," saw its share price surge 502% on its first day of trading on the STAR Market , with its market capitalization briefly exceeding 300 billion yuan. A single subscription yielded a profit of nearly 270,000 yuan, demonstrating the capital market's high expectations for the domestic AI chip sector. Moore Threads was founded by the former core team of Nvidia and plans to use the nearly 8 billion yuan raised in its IPO to accelerate the development of a new generation of AI training and push-in integrated chips. Meanwhile, industry giant Nvidia is also facing fierce competition. Founder Jensen Huang stated that he feels the pressure of "being 30 days away from bankruptcy" every day. To counter challenges from competitors such as Google's TPU, Nvidia recently released a technical blog post claiming that its GB200 NVL72 system can improve the performance of top-tier open-source AI models by up to 10 times, and revealed that major cloud service providers such as Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure are accelerating the deployment of the system. In addition, with $60.6 billion in cash and short-term investments as of the end of October, Nvidia launched a series of large-scale strategic investments, including a $2 billion investment in chip design company Synopsys and a $10 billion investment in Anthropic, to further solidify its AI ecosystem.

Bitcoin's price recently encountered resistance and fell back after hitting its yearly opening price of $93,500, raising concerns about its future direction. Analysts believe that Bitcoin needs to break through $96,000 to confirm a trend reversal, with resistance concentrated between $93,500 and $100,000. Material Indicators data shows that if it fails to hold above $93,500, the market could further decline to $68,000. Furthermore, on-chain data shows that the current market structure is similar to the early stages of the bear market in the first quarter of 2022. Glassnode states that a break below the key support level of $81,500 could trigger a deep correction. Analyst CyrilXBT points out that if Bitcoin breaks through the $95,000 to $100,000 area, it will begin a new round of upward movement; otherwise, it could fall to the low $70,000 area. From a technical perspective, a bearish flag pattern targets $68,150, while market liquidation data indicates that approximately $3 billion in cumulative short positions will be liquidated when Bitcoin reaches $96,000, and if it breaks through $100,000, the liquidation scale will exceed $7 billion.

However, strong bullish sentiment also exists in the market. Murad, the analyst who proposed the "Meme Supercycle" theory, is highly bullish, believing this bull market will extend to 2026, with Bitcoin reaching a high of $150,000 to $200,000. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse predicts the price will reach $180,000 by the end of 2026. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink revealed that some sovereign wealth funds are gradually increasing their holdings and establishing long-term positions as Bitcoin's price falls from its high of $126,000 to the $80,000 range. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost believes that Bitcoin needs to recover to the long-term holders' cost price of approximately $96,956 to stabilize market confidence. JPMorgan Chase also stated that whether Stagety can stabilize is crucial for Bitcoin's short-term trend; if market conditions remain stable, Bitcoin is expected to rise to $170,000 within the next 6-12 months.

Ethereum recently broke through the key structural level of $3,200, and analysts are generally optimistic about its future performance, believing that if the momentum continues, Ethereum could see a 20% increase, reaching targets of $3,650 and even $3,900. In terms of specific trading, Cold Blooded Shiller believes the current momentum is biased upwards, and the top area may be slightly above $3,300. Analyst Lennaert Snyder stated that ETH has broken through the $3,230 resistance level, with the next target at $3,440. Analyst Ted pointed out that if ETH breaks through the $3,300-$3,400 range, it could extend to $3,800. CryptoQuant data shows that retail investors are actively accumulating below $2,700; a price drop to $3,000 would trigger $2 billion in liquidations, while a rise to $3,300 would face $700 million in liquidation pressure. In addition, Ethereum officially activated the Fusaka upgrade, reducing L2 gas fees by another 60%. Vitalik emphasized that the PeerDAS technology introduced in the Fusaka upgrade is "true sharding" and a milestone for the network since 2015. Although it is not yet perfect in areas such as L1 scaling, it lays the foundation for the future development of blockchain design.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, December 5)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

Bitcoin: $92,045 (down 1.68% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $45.63 billion.
Ethereum: $3,167 (down 5.16% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $23.87 billion.
Fear of Greed Index: 28 (Fear)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.04 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 12.2%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, ETH, BTC, SOL, SXP
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.84% / 51.16%
Sector Performance: The crypto market saw a broad-based pullback, with PayFi and DePIN sectors falling nearly 4%.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 86,361 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $243 million. Of these, $83.76 million was liquidated in BTC, $73.61 million in ETH, and $7.38 million in XRP.

3. ETF Flows (as of December 4)

Bitcoin ETF: -$195 million
Ethereum ETF: -$41.5702 million
Solana ETF: +$4.59 million
XRP ETF: +12.84 million USD

4. Today's Outlook

OKX will delist ACA, CLV, FOXY, PSTAKE, and RACA from spot trading.
The Stable mainnet will launch on December 8th at 21:00.
The company formed by the merger of Twenty One Capital and CEP is expected to list on the NYSE on December 9.
Jito (JTO) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens on February 7th at 8:00 AM, representing 1.13% of the total supply and worth approximately $5.4 million.
US September core PCE price index year-on-year: Previous value 2.9%, expected value 2.8%
US September PCE price index year-on-year: Previous value 2.8%, expected value 2.7%

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Zcash up 9.6%, MYX Finance up 6.8%, Beldex up 2.9%, TRON up 2.2%, and Sky (formerly Maker) up 1.7%.