Trading Moment: Markets "fly blindly" amid macroeconomic gloom; Bitcoin encounters resistance at $105,000 selling pressure, while older cryptocurrencies see a rebound.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The ongoing US government shutdown has disrupted the release of official economic data, leaving markets in a state of flux and forcing investors to rely on private data to assess the health of the economy. A report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas revealed a grim employment situation: companies announced 153,000 job cuts in October, the highest number for the same period in 20 years, a staggering 175% year-on-year increase, with artificial intelligence being explicitly cited as a reason for layoffs for the first time . The weak employment data fueled concerns about a recession, putting pressure on US stocks, with tech stocks leading the decline and the S&P 500 experiencing another round of selling. Against this backdrop , Tesla's annual shareholder meeting approved CEO Elon Musk's trillion-dollar compensation package .

Regarding monetary policy, Federal Reserve officials are cautious about cutting interest rates due to a lack of data, but the market has already priced in a 69% probability of a rate cut in December . Meanwhile, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned that the Fed's move to end quantitative tightening is tantamount to "injecting stimulus into a bubble," potentially triggering a liquidity frenzy similar to that of 1999, but with significant long-term risks. Furthermore, the US Supreme Court's ruling on international trade tariffs has become a focal point; if the tariffs are ruled illegal, it could drive a general rise in US stocks and affect market sentiment.

In the Bitcoin market, analyst opinions are significantly divided. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase are extremely optimistic, predicting Bitcoin could rise to $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months, citing the normalization of market leverage and improved volatility relative to gold. They believe the current price of Bitcoin is about $68,000 below its fair value. However, Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Invest, has lowered her 2030 price forecast for Bitcoin from $1.5 million to $1.2 million. She believes the rise of stablecoins is encroaching on Bitcoin's role in payment scenarios, but remains optimistic about its long-term institutional adoption prospects. Regarding price, Bitcoin recently broke below the key psychological support level of $100,000 and is currently hovering around $103,000, facing strong selling pressure above $105,000. Traders warn that this could push the price down to the $98,000 to $93,000 range. CryptoQuant's analysis is even more pessimistic, with its bullish index dropping to zero and the price breaking below the key support level of the 365-day moving average at $102,000. If it cannot recover quickly, it may face the risk of a deeper correction towards $91,000 or even $72,000. Trader that1618guy also pointed out that if the low of $98,800 cannot be held over the weekend, it may indicate a longer period of correction. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows of $2 billion since October 29th, with long-term holders continuing to sell, indicating weakening market confidence. However, on-chain indicators such as the MVRV ratio have fallen to historical lows, suggesting that the market may be forming a local bottom. Furthermore, over $5 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire today, with the biggest pain point price at $108,000, reflecting cautious market sentiment.

The Ethereum market also experienced significant volatility, with this drop causing Ethereum to retest a key long-term support level. According to Deribit data, the biggest pain point for expiring Ethereum options is at $3,800, with major positions concentrated in put options at $3,500 and call options at $4,200. Notably, with a large number of short positions established, over $7 billion in short-covering liquidity has accumulated around $4,000, setting the stage for a potential short squeeze. Meanwhile, technical analysts point out a hidden bullish divergence signal on the Ethereum daily chart, which typically indicates a potential trend reversal, but the market is expected to fluctuate between $2,800 and $4,100 in the short term.

The DeFi sector is experiencing a crisis of trust, with the collapse of Stream Finance exposing the fatal flaws of the "curator" model. This opaque fund management method resulted in the freezing of $160 million in user funds and triggered a chain reaction affecting multiple protocols such as Euler and Elixir , with systemic risk exposure reaching $285 million. Meanwhile, the AI and decentralized storage sectors bucked the trend, with the DFINITY Foundation launching the AI platform Caffeine, driving its token ICP's price up over 160% since November and triggering a "rotation" of price increases for storage tokens such as FIL, STORJ, and AR . Regarding mainstream public chains, analyst Murphy pointed out that Solana has entered an "oversold" structure after a sharp price drop, with its current price below the holding cost of most whale wallets and 65% of its tokens at a loss. If the Bitcoin market stabilizes, SOL may see a structural opportunity.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, November 7)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

Bitcoin: $102,332 (year-to-date +9.36%), daily spot trading volume $121.11 billion.
Ethereum: $3,365 (year-to-date +0.82%), daily spot trading volume $73.5 billion.
Fear of Greed Index: 21 (Panic)
Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.1 Gwei
Market share: BTC 59.7%, ETH 11.9%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ETH, MMT, FIL
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.57%/50.43%
Sector Performance: AI sector rose 11.8%, DePin sector rose 13.6%.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 208,314 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $581 million. This included $235 million in BTC liquidations, $131 million in ETH liquidations, and $21.06 million in AIA liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of November 6)

Bitcoin ETF: +$240 million, turning from net outflows to net inflows after 6 consecutive days.
Ethereum ETF: +$12.5099 million, turning from net outflow to net inflow after 6 consecutive days of net outflow.

4. Today's Outlook

Binance Alpha will list Aria Protocol (ARIAIP).
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its decision on the Grayscale DOT spot ETF; the decision date is now November 8.
US October Unemployment Rate: Previous value not released, expected value 4.4% (to be confirmed)
US October seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls (in thousands): Previous value not released, expected value 15,000 (to be determined).
RedStone (RED) will unlock approximately 5.54 million tokens at midnight on November 7th, representing 2.40% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $1.8 million.
Space and Time (SXT) will unlock approximately 24.64 million tokens on November 8th at 9 PM, representing 1.62% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $1.3 million.
BounceBit (BB) will unlock approximately 29.93 million tokens at 8:00 AM on November 9th, representing 3.85% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $3.3 million.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: DeAgentAI up 655%, Filecoin up 59.2%, Internet Computer up 32.2%, Tezos up 21.3%, and Aptos up 18.7%.