I. Underlying Logic of Public Blockchains: Platform Thinking Drives Ecosystem Expansion
Ethereum's core advantage lies in its open ecosystem and platform-based development, following a path of "Internet-style expansion":
- Initial focus on L2 expansion: reduce transaction costs and increase throughput through technologies such as Rollup, and quickly gather DeFi, NFT and other ecosystem applications and user base (refer to the Internet thinking of Alipay and WeChat of "traffic first, monetization later").
- Later, it will be able to handle large-scale settlements: After the mainnet TPS (transactions per second) increases, it will gradually take on the large-scale settlement needs of payments, asset transactions, etc., forming a positive cycle of "user growth → ecosystem prosperity → settlement capability upgrade".
II. Value Anchoring: A Valuation System Driven by TVL
The lower limit of ETH's valuation is determined by the total value locked (TVL) in its ecosystem, and it continues to rise as the ecosystem expands.
- Ecosystem stickiness creates profit potential: After users develop usage habits due to the application, the platform can achieve "turnaround" (profit) by slightly increasing transaction fees, while the prosperity of the ecosystem in turn pushes up TVL, consolidating the intrinsic value of ETH.
- New trends amplify value boundaries: Tokenization of US stocks and RWA (Real-world asset tokenization, such as real estate and bonds) directly increase the ecosystem's TVL (Total Value Limit) and transaction fee throughput. Based on a 30-year timeframe, if stablecoins reach 3 trillion and RWAs reach 20 trillion, ETH's minimum market capitalization could correspond to a scale of 3 trillion.
III. The Evolution of Monetary Attributes: From Payment Instrument to "Monetary Settlement Layer"
The use cases for currency always flow to the areas with the largest transaction volume, and the ultimate value of ETH lies in becoming a "settlement layer for currency":
- Payment System vs. Monetary System: If ETH is only used as a payment tool, its market capitalization is comparable to SWIFT (lower valuation limit); if its ecosystem corresponds to the global monetary system (covering all scenarios such as payments, assets, and credit), then its value potential is limitless;
- Specific needs in the AI era: AI-driven small-amount, rapid settlements (such as computing power transactions and cross-domain micro-payments) require stablecoins (stable prices and efficient execution), and ETH, as the underlying public chain, supports stablecoin issuance, cross-chain settlement, and complex financial logic, becoming the "infrastructure for monetary automation".
IV. Beyond Payment: Building a Full-Stack Financial Ecosystem
The value of ETH extends far beyond "payments," encompassing a full-stack financial infrastructure that includes asset issuance, banking services, and commercial functions.
- Asset issuance and trading: Supports the tokenization of US stocks and RWA (Real-world Asset On-chain), and realizes standardized issuance, on-chain trading and settlement of assets through smart contracts, breaking down traditional intermediary barriers;
- Bank-level financial services:
- Deposits: Users can earn interest by depositing ETH or stablecoins into DeFi protocols (such as Aave) (decentralized "deposits");
- Lending: You can quickly obtain loans by staking ETH (such as issuing DAI on MakerDAO), without bank review, and the interest rate is adjusted in real time by the algorithm;
- Exchange Functionality: Supports decentralized exchanges (DEX) and NFT platforms, enabling autonomous trading and circulation of assets;
- Empowering the business ecosystem:
- Payment and Settlement: Global merchants accept ETH/stablecoin payments, cross-border payments arrive in seconds, and the cost is only 1/10 of the traditional SWIFT;
- Supply chain finance: Smart contracts automatically complete account verification and loan disbursement (such as trade finance "cash on delivery" which is automatically triggered);
- Business Automation: Supports enterprises in building decentralized marketplaces (such as digital art trading platforms) to achieve full-chain automation of "issuance-trading-settlement".
V. Open Ecosystem: ETH's Long-Term Competitive Advantage
ETH's "openness" is its core barrier to entry, distinguishing it from BTC (a closed system focused on value storage).
- Developer-friendly: Supports programming languages such as Solidity, allowing any developer to freely build applications (from finance to games, from social to IoT).
- Boundless Scenarios: Embracing emerging trends such as AI and RWA, enabling traditional financial assets (such as stocks and bonds) and emerging digital assets (such as AI computing power and data) to circulate on the blockchain;
- Programmable financial logic: Through smart contracts, financial transactions and business logic can be executed in a "coded" manner (such as automatic dividends and automatic liquidation), completely breaking the geographical, time, and intermediary limitations of traditional finance.
VI. Future Outlook: From "Financial Operating System" to "Global Settlement Underlying Layer"
The fundamental logic behind ETH's development is an upgrade from a "payment network" to a "global financial operating system":
- Short term: Reduce transaction costs through L2 expansion and gather users and ecosystem (refer to Amazon's "scale first, profit later" logic);
- Mid-term: Promote the tokenization of US stocks, implement RWA, and expand TVL (Total Value Locked) and application scenarios;
- Long-term: To become the settlement foundation of the global monetary system in the AI era, covering all scenarios of "payment + assets + finance + commerce", and releasing unlimited value potential.
Conclusion
ETH's ultimate ambition is to become the "Windows of finance"—when currencies need automated, globalized, and intelligent settlement, the comprehensive functions of its open ecosystem will reshape the global financial ecosystem, and its value space will continue to expand as the ecosystem grows.
