PANews reported on June 1 that this week, U.S. Treasuries experienced their first monthly decline this year. The U.S. dollar exchange rate fell for the fifth consecutive month, marking the longest decline since 2020. Spot gold fell by about 2% on Friday, barely achieving five consecutive months of gains, and the monthly line was almost flat. Traders weighed the Fed's cautious attitude, mixed inflation data, and the return of tariff uncertainty this week. Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:
At 08:00 on Monday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Waller will speak on the economic outlook at the 2025 Bank of Korea International Conference;
At 00:45 on Tuesday, Goolsbee, 2025 FOMC voting member and president of the Chicago Fed, participated in a question-and-answer session;
At 01:00 on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered an opening speech at an event;
Tuesday 22:00, US JOLTs job vacancies in April, US factory orders monthly rate in April;
At 00:45 on Wednesday, Goolsbee, 2025 FOMC voting member and president of the Chicago Fed, participated in a question-and-answer session;
Wednesday 20:15, US ADP employment data for May
At 20:30 on Wednesday, 2027 FOMC voting member, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, and Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook attended the "Fed Listens" event;
At 02:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions;
Thursday 19:30, US Challenger Enterprise Layoffs in May
At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 31 and the U.S. trade account in April
At 00:00 on Friday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler will speak at the Economic Club of New York;
At 01:30 on Friday, Harker, 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, will speak on the economic outlook;
At 20:30 on Friday, the U.S. unemployment rate in May, the U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in May, and the U.S. average hourly wage annual/monthly rate in May will be released.
The focus of next week's data is on Friday's non-farm payrolls, with economists believing that employment will increase by 125,000 in May, according to the median of a Bloomberg survey, after job growth exceeded expectations in March and April. This would keep the average increase over the past three months at a solid level of 162,000. Federal Reserve officials are also waiting for clear information on how trade and tax policies will affect the economy and inflation, so they are likely to remain calm on the labor market report.
To complicate matters, stocks are about to enter one of the most pedestrian months in history. Over the past 30 years, the S&P 500 has averaged just a 0.2% gain in June, compared with an average gain of 0.8% in the other 11 months of the year. Over the past seven decades, the S&P 500 has typically struggled in early June in years following U.S. presidential elections as investors took profits heading into the summer. That’s especially true if the index gets a strong boost in May, which it has this year.
