On October 30, financial markets showed divergent performances. Spot gold continued to hit a record high, while Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase after approaching its all-time high the day before.
In terms of U.S. stocks, the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq all closed down, down 0.33%, 0.22% and 0.56% respectively.
Macro data was mixed: US GDP growth slowed to 2.8% in the third quarter, below expectations of 3%. However, the labor market performed better than expected, indicating strong economic fundamentals.
The latest data did not change the market's expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the November FOMC meeting, but investors chose to remain vigilant before the release of key data such as the September monthly PCE index and employment report.
Although BTC has retreated in the short term, multiple factors including the derivatives market, on-chain data, and the macroeconomic environment indicate that Bitcoin’s long-term upward trend remains unchanged.
Derivatives market: Strong demand supports high premiums
According to data from laevitas.ch, the current annualized premium of Bitcoin futures contracts is as high as 13%, which is much higher than the level of the neutral market. This shows that the market is bullish on the future price of Bitcoin and investors are willing to pay a higher premium for a longer holding period.
The options market also remains active, showing that investors are highly concerned about future price fluctuations. The high premium and active options market together indicate that the market is bullish on Bitcoin in the long term.
On-chain data: Net outflow from exchanges shows increased willingness to hold long-term assets
On-chain data shows that the net outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges has increased, indicating that investors are transferring Bitcoin to cold wallets for long-term holding. This further proves the market's long-term bullishness on Bitcoin.
Glassnode’s 6-hour average net transfer volume chart for exchanges shows that although there was a brief rise in exchange deposits after BTC broke through $70,000, it subsequently turned into net outflows, indicating that investors are locking in profits and preparing for future upside.
From a technical perspective, TradingView analyst Arman Shaban believes that once Bitcoin breaks through its all-time high, its price will rise to $77,000 or even higher.
He said: “Analyzing the Bitcoin chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that Bitcoin has risen by more than 10% since the last analysis, climbing from $66,500 to $73,600, and is now only $100 away from its all-time high. After this, Bitcoin has slightly corrected to $72,000. I still expect the previous high to be broken soon and Bitcoin will reach higher levels. The next bullish targets are $77,000, $81,700 and $93,800.”
Technical analyst Axel Adler Jr. said on the X platform that $86,200 is an important technical position for Bitcoin's current cycle. Through in-depth research on short-term holder data, he found that this price level represents the upper limit of the current market risk appetite.
Adler said: "At the $86,200 level, the bull market's fate will be determined. If the price breaks through this point and develops strong bullish momentum, we will finally see what everyone has been waiting for."
