1. Market observation
The "big and beautiful" tax cut bill promoted by the Trump administration was voted through the House of Representatives and is now waiting for Trump to sign it. The White House said Trump will sign the plan at 5 a.m. Beijing time on July 5. This massive bill will fund Trump's domestic agenda and may cause millions of Americans to lose their health insurance. Although the Congressional Budget Office warned that the move would increase the U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion and Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, strong non-farm data in June (147,000 new jobs and unemployment rate fell to 4.1%) provided a buffer for policy implementation. This unexpected employment report prompted interest rate futures traders to abandon their bets on a rate cut in July, and the market's expectations for the probability of a Fed rate cut in September fell from 98% to 80%.
However, the team of George Cole, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group, holds the opposite view. In their latest report, they lowered their forecasts for U.S. Treasury yields of various maturities (the ten-year target dropped from 4.50% to 4.20%), and insisted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, October and December, believing that job growth mainly depends on local government recruitment and the labor participation rate is weak. Regarding the tariff policy, Trump will start sending letters to relevant countries on July 4 to unilaterally set tariff rates. It is expected that 10 to 12 countries will receive notifications on the same day. It is planned to impose tariffs ranging from 60%-70% and 10%-20% on different countries. Countries must pay these tariffs from August 1, and July 9 is the deadline for negotiations.
As the market fluctuates, the compliance process of the crypto industry is also accelerating. Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst of HashKey Group, pointed out that the recent application of stablecoin issuer Circle for a U.S. national trust bank license is a landmark event in the development of the industry. He pointed out that as the only two stablecoins with an issuance volume of more than 10 billion U.S. dollars, if USDC becomes the first federally regulated issuer, it will consolidate its institutional market position, attract more corporate customers and expand its revenue sources. The establishment of Circle's bank will set a compliance benchmark for U.S. stablecoin regulation, promote industry standardization, and help integrate stablecoins into the anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing system, enhance international competitiveness and attract traditional financial institutions to participate.
In this macro context, the Bitcoin market is particularly sensitive. After the release of stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls, Bitcoin prices were once boosted and briefly rushed to the key psychological level of $110,000, but the bullish force failed to sustain. Despite this, many analysts still expressed strong bullish expectations for Bitcoin's medium- and long-term prospects. Markus Thielen, research director of 10x Research, believes that driven by the inflow of spot ETF funds, uncertainty in the Fed's policy, and a decline in exchange supply, Bitcoin is expected to rise to $116,000 by the end of this month. Going further, analyst CryptoBoss gave a target price of $112,000 and $135,000. Analyst Crypto Auris, based on the logic of the global broad money supply (M2) hitting a record high, predicts that Bitcoin prices may rise to $170,000, and believes that by the end of 2025, $150,000 to $200,000 is the general forecast range.
However, this optimism is constrained by short-term risks. The most direct resistance level is currently at $112,000. Trader Byzantine General pointed out that there are a large number of sell orders near this price. Cointelegraph's analysis also emphasized that the price has formed a bearish divergence in multiple time frames when it hit $110,500. If it cannot break through, the support target range below is $106,000 to $107,500. Arthur Hayes also issued a short-term warning, pointing out that Trump's "big and beautiful" bill may lead to a short-term contraction of US dollar liquidity, or cause the price of Bitcoin to fall to the range of $90,000 to $95,000. If the impact is limited, Bitcoin may remain volatile around $100,000, but it will be difficult to break through the high of $112,000. He expects that the market may go sideways or fall slightly before the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the end of August, and Bitcoin may rise after liquidity is restored in early September.
Although some tokens in the altcoin market have risen slightly recently, most tokens are still falling. It is worth noting that the trading volume of the penguin $PENGU has remained high recently, and the price of the coin has continued to rise for a week, with a weekly increase of nearly 80%. Several high-quality meme coins have also appeared on the Solana chain in the past two days. Among them, the feng shui-related $LuckyCoin has risen 814% in the past 24 hours, with a market value of 6.4 million US dollars; the investment puppy $invest has a 24-hour increase of 140%, with a market value of 7.2 million US dollars. On the Cooking.city platform supported by Jump Crypto, the market value of $DBC once surged to 36.9 million US dollars, and now it has fallen back to 8.7 million US dollars, but the 24-hour increase is still more than 30,000%. In addition, the market value of $KIRBY supported by the founder of Jupiter has reached a maximum of 3.5 million US dollars.
2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on July 4)
(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $109,188 (+16.61% YTD), daily spot volume $28.786 billion
Ethereum: $2,579.71 (-22.81% YTD), with daily spot volume of $18.035 billion
Fear of Greed Index: 73 (greed)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.18 sat/vB ETH: 0.28 Gwei
Market share: BTC 64.5%, ETH 9.2%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, MOODENG, ETH, PENGU
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9425
Sector gains and losses: L2 sector fell 3.23%; RWA sector fell 3.12%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 81,349 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$193 million, including BTC liquidation of US$52.6963 million, ETH liquidation of US$42.6473 million, and SOL liquidation of US$9.0263 million
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($108,339.46), lower channel line ($106,194.13)
ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($2521.16), lower line ($2471.23)
*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly within the range or in the short term, it is a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF flows (as of July 3)
Bitcoin ETF: -+$602 million
Ethereum ETF: +$149 million
4. Today’s Outlook
Due to the U.S. Independence Day, U.S. stocks will be closed all day on July 4.
The biggest gainers in the top 500 by market capitalization today: Humanity Protocol (H) up 28.99%, FUNToken (FUN) up 23.71%, Paycoin (PCI) up 12.48%, Zircuit (ZRC) up 12.27%, and Blast (BLAST) up 12.11%.
5. Hot News
A wallet suspected to be associated with Matrixport withdrew another 10,000 ETH from Binance
DeFi Development acquires 17,760 SOL for $2.72 million to expand its holdings and staking strategies
U.S. House of Representatives votes to pass "Big and Beautiful" bill
Abraxas Capital Withdraws $126 Million Worth of ETH from CEX in the Last 24 Hours
U.S. non-farm payrolls in June were 147,000, compared with expectations of 110,000
U.S. unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, expected to be 4.3%
Swiss Bank AMINA supports Ripple stablecoin RLUSD custody and trading
This article is supported by HashKey, the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat currency portal in Asia. HashKey Exchange is committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform security.
