PANews reported on February 26th that, according to Binance Research's latest weekly report, the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling initially increased uncertainty, but quantitative analysis suggests the direct impact may be quite limited, and the market may have exaggerated downside risks to inflation and economic fundamentals. Market concerns about AI disrupting software may be excessive. Once software stocks form a sustained bottom, the mechanical correlation between tech stocks and Bitcoin will subside. This week's Nvidia earnings report and Anthropic corporate partnership update may be early signs in this direction. Currently, Bitcoin and the global M2 money supply are experiencing the longest and largest divergence in history, stemming from three structural distortions: a weak dollar mechanically inflates the nominal value of M2 through exchange rate conversion; the approval of spot ETFs leads institutions to classify Bitcoin and software stocks as the same high-volatility tech factor; and persistently high real interest rates make money market funds a competitive alternative to risky assets. The convergence of this divergence requires three conditions: stabilization of tech stocks, a decline in real interest rates, and a stable dollar, which may occur in the second half of 2026 to early 2027.

Multiple technical indicators point to the market nearing a structural bottom: the realized profit/loss ratio has fallen below 1 for the first time since 2023, leverage has rebounded to a November high, and defensive option positions have reached their most extreme level since the FTX crash. Fourth-quarter 13F filings show that price-sensitive capital (investment advisors, banks, hedge funds) net sold approximately 34,000 BTC, while long-term institutional capital (governments, holding companies, private equity) continued to increase its holdings.