Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: US and European PMI data to be released, global interest rate market sees increasingly hawkish repricing.

PANews, March 21st - According to Jinshi News, over the past week, the rapid escalation of tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran has impacted energy production facilities in the Gulf region, driving up energy prices and exacerbating inflation concerns. The global interest rate market is experiencing a more pronounced "hawkish repricing." With the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations rising sharply coupled with liquidity constraints, the safe-haven appeal of precious metals has given way to the siphon effect of the US dollar. The following are key points the market will focus on in the coming week (all times are Beijing time):

  • Tuesday at 7:30 AM, Japan's February core CPI year-on-year rate;
  • On Tuesday at 16:15, 16:30, 17:00, and 17:30, the preliminary March manufacturing/services PMI readings for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK will be released.
  • At 21:45 on Tuesday, the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI for March will be released.
  • At 15:00 on Wednesday, the UK's February CPI month-on-month rate and the UK's February Retail Price Index month-on-month rate will be released.
  • On Wednesday at 17:00, Germany's March IFO Business Climate Index will be released.
  • On Wednesday at 20:30, the US fourth-quarter current account and the US February import price index month-on-month change will be released.
  • At 22:30 on Wednesday, the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending March 20 will be released.
  • At 8:30 PM on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending March 21 will be released.
  • The meeting of G7 finance ministers, scheduled for Thursday until March 27, is yet to be determined.
  • Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson will deliver a speech at 7:00 AM on Friday.
  • At 22:00 on Friday, the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March and the final reading of the one-year inflation rate expectations will be released.
  • At 11:30 PM on Friday, Daly, a 2027 FOMC voting member and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, will deliver opening remarks at a conference on macroeconomics and monetary policy.

Tuesday's release of March manufacturing and services PMIs for Europe and the US will provide initial insights into the performance of business activity during the Iran-Iraq conflict and the impact of soaring energy prices. As a net energy exporter, the US economy is considered more resilient than many European countries. Under the shadow of soaring oil prices, the balance of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions appears to be tilting back towards inflation. The UK's February CPI data, to be released on Wednesday, will be a highlight of UK economic data for the coming week. The next test for the yen may be the February national CPI data scheduled for release on Tuesday. Furthermore, driven by soaring energy prices and a shift towards a wait-and-see approach in global central bank monetary policy, rapidly rising US Treasury yields are gradually becoming a risk factor for the stock market.

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Author: PA一线

This content is for market information only and is not investment advice.

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