Author: Changan I Biteye Content Team
Who is Fu Peng, who blocked a bunch of Chinese KOLs?
Many people first noticed him not because of a speech or a report, but because of the controversy on social media: some Chinese-speaking practitioners and KOLs found that they had been blocked by him.
In April 2026, Fu Peng appeared on the stage at the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival as the chief economist of Newfire Group.
For many who have long focused on traditional macroeconomics and asset allocation, this name is not unfamiliar; but for Web3 users, the questions are just beginning: Who is Fu Peng? Why is he stepping onto the Web3 stage at this particular time?
I. Who is he: Twenty years from Lehman Brothers to Northeast Securities
Public accounts of Fu Peng's early life are not entirely consistent. What is certain is that what changed the course of his life was a recommendation in 2000: Xue Wenshi, then chairman of the Northwest China Securities Regulatory Commission, sent the young man to the UK.
First stop: London, 1999–2004
Upon arriving in the UK, Fu Peng enrolled at the ISMA School of the University of Reading, majoring in International Securities Investment and Banking. ISMA was then a top-tier international securities market research institution in Europe, specializing in training analysts to directly serve the capital markets.
There was an interesting side story to this period of his studies abroad: Fu Peng encountered some trading opportunities based on information asymmetry and even tried to find arbitrage opportunities within them. He later repeatedly mentioned this experience as a starting point for his business acumen.
Second stop: Lehman Brothers, 2004-2005
In 2004, on the recommendation of Brian Scott-Quinn, Chairman of ISMA, Fu Peng successfully joined Lehman Brothers in the UK. During his time at Lehman, he gained systematic exposure to the actual operations of investment banks, developed a genuine awareness of risk control, and understood how institutional capital thinks and makes bets.
He worked at Lehman Brothers for only about a year before moving to Salomon Brothers International in the City of London in 2005.
Third stop: Solomon Islands, 2005-2008, and that crisis
Fu Peng moved to Salomon Brothers International Investment Group in the City of London, where he became the Global Head of Macro Hedge Strategy Design for Event-Driven Strategy Funds, responsible for the interconnected analysis of financial derivatives, currency, and commodity markets.
In his later review, he noted that some unusual signs had emerged in overseas markets around 2006, such as the expansion of high-risk mortgages: loans were still being issued in large quantities despite a mismatch between income and creditworthiness. These phenomena were not fully priced into by the market at the time, and overall sentiment remained optimistic.
In September of the same year, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, and the financial crisis fully erupted. He witnessed all of this firsthand and learned something he would later repeatedly mention: positive feedback will not last forever, nor will negative feedback.
Fourth stop: Returning to China, 2008-2011, those years of exploration.
In November 2008, Fu Peng returned to China and became the deputy general manager of Shandong High-Tech Venture Capital Co., Ltd. In August 2009, he transferred to Zhongqi Group as the chief macro strategy analyst. This was his first public appearance in China as a chief analyst.
During those years, he was doing something even more crucial: starting with the foreign exchange market, using commodities as a medium, he gradually connected various assets in the actual operation of cross-border capital flows, forming his own analytical system. In 2011, he moved to Galaxy Futures and began appearing in the media as a special commentator.
Fifth stop: Hedge Fund, 2017-2019, back to the buy side.
From August 2017 to November 2019, Fu Peng served as a director of Hangzhou Chonghe Investment. This is an often overlooked phase in his career: he returned to the buy-side from being a sell-side analyst and started managing money and doing asset allocation.
This experience later earned him the title of "the chief economist who knows the buy-side best." He knew what real institutional investors were thinking, what they needed, and where they were constrained, which was fundamentally different from most sell-side economists who had never managed money.
Sixth stop: Northeast Securities, 2020-2025, becoming a public face.
In late 2019, Li Guanying, director of the Northeast Securities Research Institute, extended an invitation to Fu Peng. In February 2020, Northeast Securities officially announced his appointment as chief economist. This timing coincided with the outbreak of the pandemic, which caused severe turmoil in global markets, leading to a sharp increase in market demand for macroeconomic analysis in a short period.
His way of speaking is completely different from that of most securities economists. He never writes scripts, and speaks openly in front of the camera, relying on down-to-earth language and the humor unique to northerners to accumulate a large audience of ordinary people.
In March 2024, he published "Witnessing the Tide: Reflections on the Major Shift in Global Asset Logic." Later that year, he underwent two major surgeries, leaving a message on his WeChat Moments: "I had two general anesthesia surgeries in two days. I'll take good care of myself from now on." On April 30, 2025, Fu Peng officially resigned from Northeast Securities due to health reasons, and his employment information was subsequently removed from the official website of the Securities Association of China.
Seventh stop: Xinhuo Group
In April 2026, just before the opening of the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival, Fu Peng appeared at the event as the chief economist of Newfire Group.
II. What he said: Several verified judgments
He has made many public statements, but here we will only select a few cases with clear timelines, relatively clear viewpoints, and subsequent comparisons with market performance.
1️⃣ September 2024, Phoenix Bay Area Financial Forum
In September 2024, Fu Peng delivered a speech at the Phoenix Bay Area Financial Forum, which was hosted by Phoenix TV and Phoenix.com and held in the Hengqin Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone.
Fu Peng publicly stated that one of the core problems facing the current economic operation is insufficient effective demand and declining investment returns. The continuous decline in interest rates reflects a downward shift in the central level of returns across society; the rising propensity to save among households, coupled with more intense price competition faced by enterprises in the context of insufficient demand, collectively constitute a negative feedback structure.
His core argument can be summarized as follows: economic issues are not only about confidence, but also about rates of return and income expectations.
⚡️Fu Peng predicts: If government bond yields decline further, it will reflect a weaker return expectation environment. Regarding real estate, he believes that in the long run, the financial attributes of some housing units may weaken, becoming more closely related to their consumption attributes.
Looking at the subsequent trend: the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds continued its downward trend at the end of 2024, and its judgment on "declining returns" is basically consistent with the market performance in terms of direction.
2️⃣ November 24, 2024, HSBC closed-door meeting
The HSBC closed-door meeting was a key opportunity for Fu Peng's views to gain widespread attention. His remarks were subsequently disseminated and rapidly spread on social media, bringing him from the macroeconomics research circle into the broader public eye. The title of his speech was "2024 Review and 2025 Outlook – Hedging Risks vs. Soft Landing".
In this presentation, he pointed out that some structural problems in the Chinese economy had already begun to emerge before the pandemic and have not been fully resolved in recent years. Changes in residents' income expectations, balance sheets, and employment structure all affect consumption and economic performance.
He places the China issue within a broader framework and proposes an analytical approach:
Ideology → Policy Choices → Economic Structure → Asset Pricing
He also believes that the global environment is undergoing structural changes, including geopolitical factors and supply chain restructuring, which may affect capital flows and asset pricing logic.
⚡️Fu Peng predicts: In the near future, economic recovery may face constraints, and policy tools need to be used in a balanced way. It is difficult to rely on a single means to quickly solve the problem. Changes in the global landscape may have a lasting impact on capital flows.
The contents of the closed-door meeting were leaked and quickly spread on social media. According to public media reports, Fu Peng's short video platform account was blocked after the meeting.
Looking at the subsequent trend: the A-share market will experience a phased rebound around 2025, but the overall structure will still be differentiated. The judgment on "complex environment and constrained recovery" has a certain degree of correspondence with the market performance.
3️⃣ November 28, 2025, Bloomberg Businessweek The Year Ahead 2026 Outlook Summit
In relevant annual outlooks or roundtable discussions, Fu Peng discussed the relationship between productivity and institutions.
He argued that there is a mismatch between current productivity advancements (such as AI technology) and the matching of production relations and institutions. This contradiction will continue for some time to come, and policies will play a more counterbalancing and supportive role than a complete solution.
In terms of asset allocation, he mentioned ideas similar to "structural allocation," for example:
One end represents technological assets that symbolize future productivity (such as AI-related assets).
One end consists of assets with stable cash flow characteristics (such as high-dividend assets).
⚡️Fu Peng predicts: Regarding gold, he analyzes its relationship with the global monetary system and institutional changes from a longer-term perspective, while also pointing out periodic fluctuations and uncertainties.
Looking ahead, during 2025-2026, gold prices are expected to remain strong and reach new highs. The market still offers various explanations for the driving factors (including central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks). While the analysis of the structural drivers of gold prices has some explanatory power, the specific timing and price performance may differ.
4️⃣ December 20, 2025, Alpha Summit
At this type of conference, which focuses on the integration of AI with macroeconomics, he proposed:
A core issue facing the current AI industry is that while infrastructure development is relatively sufficient, downstream applications and commercialization still require validation. The key to the future lies in whether applications can truly be implemented and generate profitable business models.
He believes the market is transitioning from a "high-certainty narrative" to a "stage that needs verification," where valuations and volatility may rise simultaneously.
⚡️Fu Peng's prediction:
If AI applications are successfully implemented, it will bring about a new growth cycle.
If the implementation falls short of expectations, the related assets may face significant volatility.
He emphasized that in the macroeconomic environment, interest rates are no longer the only core variable; what is more important is whether the asset side can generate a real rate of return.
Looking at future trends: AI applications will indeed continue to advance around 2026, with some models showing significant improvements in capabilities and gradually entering enterprise application scenarios. However, the overall commercialization process is still in its early stages, and the market still has differing opinions regarding its long-term value versus short-term realization.
5️⃣ April 23, 2026, Hong Kong Web3 Carnival
Fu Peng attended the relevant meeting in his capacity as chief economist of Xinhuo Group and discussed the evolution path of crypto assets.
He proposed that crypto assets are gradually evolving from being primarily "faith-driven" in their early stages to becoming more mature financial assets, and their development path is somewhat similar to that of traditional financial derivatives.
Technological innovation → Institutional adaptation → Regulatory follow-up → Inclusion in mainstream asset allocation system
He places crypto assets, stablecoins, and AI technologies within a larger macro framework, believing these changes are related to adjustments in the global monetary system and financial structure.
He pointed out that decentralization is not about completely removing the center, but rather about redistributing and reconstructing the original central structure. This is one of the reasons why traditional finance is gradually changing its attitude towards crypto assets.
III. Why did he become so popular? The spread of information due to a single instance of censorship.
After he entered the Web3 community, a round of controversy surrounding the way social platforms are used objectively amplified his public exposure.
The discussion surrounding "blocking some practitioners and KOLs" has also prompted many readers outside the industry to search for the first time: Who exactly is Fu Peng?
After becoming active on X, he posted a message that clearly showed his "pretentiousness," roughly meaning: "Many people don't understand what I'm saying; only those who have reached a certain level of understanding will comprehend it." Subsequently, a number of cryptocurrency-related accounts were blocked or blacklisted by him. This tweet has since been deleted.
The blocked list includes investors, KOLs, practitioners, and skeptics, including several influential accounts in the Chinese-speaking world. XHunt @XHuntCN compiled a list of the top 200 KOLs in the Chinese-speaking world who were blocked by Fu Peng 👇
This move has sparked two very different reactions in the Web3 community.
Supporters argue that this is a macro analyst actively filtering out information noise to maintain the independence of their analytical framework.
Critics argue that such large-scale blocking is clearly exclusive, especially in the early stages of entering a new field, and could easily be interpreted as a show of strength or even arrogance.
Regardless, this incident objectively helped him achieve a large-scale exposure.
Those who were blocked posted discussions, while those who weren't blocked posted observations, and onlookers began actively searching for who Fu Peng was.
In the Web3 community, this controversial way of entering the venue has been more effective at introducing oneself than a speech.
IV. Why is he here?
If you only look at the labels, Fu Peng's transition from a traditional macro researcher to Web3 seems like a big leap.
However, if we return to the issues he has long focused on, we will find that this path is not actually that broken.
This issue may need to be addressed through earlier observations.
In reviewing Fu Peng's past public statements, it can be found that he has a relatively stable analytical habit: interpreting the behavior of young people as economic signals.
When Pop Mart became a hit, he focused not only on the value of individual products, but also on the consumption structure behind them: in an environment of slowing growth and weakening expectations, why are young people reducing their allocation to large assets such as real estate and cars, but willing to continue paying for low-priced goods with high emotional value?
During the rise of sneaker speculation, he also mentioned that those born in the 1990s and 2000s were bypassing the traditional stock and real estate markets, forming their own ways of playing the game in new trading scenarios. In his view, these behaviors were not simply speculative phenomena.
For him, Web3 is more like a continuation of this observation path: young people dominate, emotions drive, and risk appetite are characteristics that reappear at different stages, only the carriers have changed.
Back in 2021, in some interviews, he mentioned that there was still a lack of full understanding of Bitcoin within the traditional framework, but its pricing logic could be observed from a liquidity perspective. If the macroeconomic environment tightened, highly volatile and overvalued assets might face pressure. Subsequently, the crypto market underwent a deep correction in 2022, with Bitcoin falling significantly from its highs, which to some extent confirmed this logic in the market.
In the following years, he did not directly participate in specific transaction narratives, but continued to observe the development of this field from a macro perspective. From the initial high volatility and high uncertainty, to the gradual introduction of regulation, the expansion of payment scenarios with stablecoins, and then to the entry of institutional funds, the attributes of crypto assets have also changed.
Based on these observations, he gradually formed a judgment: crypto assets are evolving from an early fringe market into financial instruments that can be incorporated into asset allocation systems, so he chose to enter this emerging industry.
In conclusion
The controversy surrounding Fu Peng will not disappear.
Whether in the traditional financial world or in today's Web3 context, he is not the kind of person who easily gains consensus.
But that is precisely why he deserves to be singled out for discussion.
It's not because he provided the standard answer, but because his path precisely reflects a gap between China's macro narrative and the new asset narrative over the past few years:
From the impact of the Lehman crisis to changes in domestic household balance sheets;
From consumption patterns, real estate, and interest rates, to gold, AI, and crypto assets;
From observing from the sidelines to actually stepping onto the Web3 stage.
Rather than saying that Fu Peng "suddenly turned to Web3," it's more accurate to say that he simply followed his original sense of inquiry and arrived here.
If traditional macro analysts increasingly appear at AI and Web3 discussions in the coming years, Fu Peng may not be the last.
