Trading Moment: With the interest rate decision and a large number of tech giants' earnings reports approaching, BTC's 78,000 level has become resistance, while 75,000 has turned into support.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.05% to 49,141.93 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.49% to 7,138.8 points; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9% to 24,663.8 points.

Despite Trump revealing that Iran hopes the US will open the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible, he immediately expressed "dissatisfaction" with Iran's latest peace proposal, believing it would delay nuclear negotiations. Iran, in turn, sent a strong signal, declaring its ability to "outlast Trump." Jim Reid, head of macro research at Deutsche Bank, pointed out that the lack of signs of peace talks is exacerbating market concerns about a breakdown in negotiations.

Both WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil surged during this period. While the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1st and a gradual increase in oil production, this news briefly caused prices to fall, but was quickly overshadowed by the risk of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Salih Yilmaz, senior analyst at Bloomberg, believes that in the short term, the market focus will be tightly on the situation in Hormuz and physical flow tensions; only when the shipping lanes reopen will trading logic return to fundamentals. Goldman Sachs' supply and demand calculations further amplified this tension: a daily loss of approximately 14.4 million barrels of crude oil production in the Persian Gulf is driving global oil inventories down at an alarming rate of 11 to 12 million barrels per day. Bank of America warned that if the conflict extends into the summer, the average Brent price could soar to $150 or even higher; Citigroup set a 0-3 month target price of $120 for Brent.

Precious metals failed to benefit from safe-haven demand, with spot gold briefly falling below $4,600 and silver dropping over 3%. Goldman Sachs' Rich Privorotsky stated that gold is now like an "ATM for energy companies," with funds being redistributed in energy and inflation trading. The World Bank gave a medium-term forecast: gold's average price this year is expected to be around $4,700 per ounce, a 37% increase from last year, but may fall by about 7% in 2027; silver's average price this year is expected to be around $70 per ounce, a 76% increase year-on-year, but may also fall by 7% the following year. The World Bank also warned that a concentrated reversal in speculative demand could lead to a highly sudden pullback in precious metals.

Expectations for interest rate cuts have been further compressed; currently, the market's pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in 2026 has fallen significantly to about one-sixth. This week, the FOMC is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, which will likely be Powell's final appearance as Fed Chairman. Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, stated that if oil prices remain high, the market really needs to consider whether inflation will be viewed as non-temporary and force the Fed to reconsider raising interest rates.

AI and the Stock Market

OpenAI has been reported to have fallen short of internal targets for weekly active users and revenue, raising questions about the return on investment for tech giants' massive AI capital expenditures. Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services, stated that OpenAI's situation has investors starting to consider whether growth is slowing and what this means for capital expenditures.

As a result, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by about 3.6%, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF closed down 2.97%. Oracle, which is deeply tied to OpenAI, plummeted 4.1%, CoreWeave plunged 5.8%, and Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD also recorded declines ranging from 1.6% to 4.4%. Goldman Sachs data shows that high-beta momentum portfolios with significant long exposure to AI-related stocks recorded their second-worst single-day performance this year.

Furthermore, the computing power sector, deeply intertwined with OpenAI, was also severely impacted, with Rambus plunging 21.26% and Credo Technology falling 8.08%. Market concerns about OpenAI's future ability to pay for data center contracts further fueled the sell-off. SoftBank, pressured by its massive investment in OpenAI, saw its Japanese stock price plummet by nearly 10%, marking its largest single-day drop since November of last year.

Despite this, some investors remain optimistic about the AI sector. Dan Morgan, portfolio manager at Synovus Trust, pointed out that any news that casts doubt on OpenAI or Anthropic would trigger a sell-off. However, he also emphasized that he did not adjust his holdings on Tuesday and believes that concerns have not yet fully spread, given the recent strong earnings reports from IBM, Texas Instruments, and Intel. Meanwhile, Seagate, the hard drive giant, reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, sending its stock price soaring 18% in after-hours trading and带动 (leading) Western Digital to rise by more than 8%.

Next, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple will release their earnings reports in the next two days. These companies together account for approximately 44% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500, and the market will focus on examining the scale of AI spending, order visibility, and investment return statements.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin retreated after repeatedly encountering resistance near $80,000, briefly dipping below $76,000 before fluctuating between $76,300 and $77,000 during the session. Previously, BTC touched $79,400 during Monday's Asian session but failed to break the psychological barrier of $80,000, subsequently giving back its gains under pressure from the Hormuz situation, oil prices returning to $100, a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the FOMC meeting, and a decline in US tech stocks.

CoinGlass data shows concentrated selling liquidity in the $78,000-$80,000 range, while $75,000-$75,500 acts as key short-term support. Glassnode's URPD data shows approximately 335,650 BTC with costs concentrated around $78,000, forming immediate resistance, while approximately 298,560 BTC with costs concentrated around $75,500, acting as significant support. Panic spread in the options market, with the 0.15 Delta Skew plummeting to -11.52. Deep out-of-the-money put options saw frenzied buying, pushing the implied volatility (IV) up to 38.13%. The Coinbase premium index turned negative for the first time in three weeks, reaching -0.008, indicating weakening demand in the US spot market.

Bearish view

Short-term funding conditions and on-chain data are flashing warning signs, with profit-taking and liquidity depletion becoming the core drivers of the bearish sentiment. Analysts generally worry that if the market cannot effectively break through resistance levels, it will face a deeper correction.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that short-term holders are extremely vulnerable, having transferred nearly 150,000 BTC to exchanges within three days, eager to sell at the first opportunity.
Ardi: Bitcoin has broken below trendline support and the $77,300 liquidity zone, and market focus is shifting to the key support range of $74,500 to $75,500.
Killa: Currently holding a short position in BTC and plans to reduce some of the risk exposure before the FOMC meeting. The price is still above the upper limit of the $75,000 range, indicating that price action has not yet clearly turned bearish; however, if it falls back into the range, the probability of breaking below $70,000 will increase significantly.
Mister Crypto: BTC has tested the $79,300 short-term holder realization price, a level that typically acts as resistance in a bear market; unless the price turns it into support, further downside should still be expected.
mooncakexbt: The $77,400 support level has turned into resistance and become a negative Delta zone; if the price rebounds to $76,800 to $77,400 and is rejected again, it may continue to move towards the lower high-volume nodes.
Woominkyu: On April 27, the net inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges rose to 9,905 BTC, the largest single-day net inflow in the past 30 days; the exchange whale ratio rose to 0.707, meaning that the top 10 inflow transactions accounted for more than 70% of the total deposits, and the exchange reserves also rose from 2.666 million to 2.677 million, indicating an increase in potential selling pressure.
Santiment: Over the past week, calls for BTC to reach $90,000 or more have intensified on social media platforms such as X, Reddit, and Telegram. High price predictions often serve as a contrarian sentiment reference, suggesting that rising FOMO may lead to the opposite path.
Godot: There is institutional support around $76,000. In the short term, there may be an upward squeeze due to short covering in futures. However, in the medium term, the top of this rebound is expected to be in the range of $78,000 to $80,000. After the rebound ends, it may continue to decline.

bullish view

Improved long-term funding and positive macroeconomic expectations have bolstered the bulls' confidence, while technical patterns and stablecoin inflows suggest a breakout after a period of consolidation. The bulls firmly believe that the current consolidation is merely a prelude to a surge towards higher targets.

Coinbase & Glassnode: Despite increased short-term uncertainty due to macroeconomic risks such as the situation in the Middle East, the macroeconomic environment may be shifting in a positive direction, helping crypto assets to bottom out in the near term and recover later this quarter. BTC sentiment has rebounded from "fear" in Q1 to "optimism" in Q2, with approximately 75% of institutional investors and 71% of retail investors believing that Bitcoin is undervalued.
Michael van de Poppe: Bitcoin's consolidation after hitting the $79,000 resistance level is typical behavior before the FOMC meeting, and the market may still enter a period of strength.
Ali Charts: Bitcoin's monthly chart is forming a "morning star" pattern. Similar high-cycle patterns in the past three years have all become macroeconomic turning points. As long as the low of $73,000 is held, the structural bias remains upward.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on April 29)

(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: -$89.6754 million
Ethereum ETF: -$21.8019 million
Fear of Greed Index: 26 (Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: BLEND, ORCA, PRL, BTC, XRP
Sector Performance: The crypto market continued its correction, with only the AI and GameFi sectors showing relative resilience.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 65,534 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $202 million, including $60.47 million in BTC liquidations, $58.2 million in ETH liquidations, and $4.58 million in XAU liquidations.

Today's Outlook

Binance will delist USDⓈ-M perpetual contracts for ZKJ, IRU, and DAM from April 28th to April 29th.
The Rayls public blockchain mainnet will launch on April 30th, with the RLS deflation mechanism starting simultaneously.
MegaETH announced that its MEGA token, TGE, will be available on April 30th.
Atomicals Market, the Atomicals ecosystem trading platform, will officially shut down on April 30th.
Magic Eden wallet will cease operation completely on May 1st.
Binance will delist several spot trading pairs, including BAND/BTC and BAT/BTC, on May 1st.
US FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Lower Bound): Expected 3.5%, Previous Value 3.5% (April 30, 02:00)
US FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Upper Limit): Expected 3.75%, Previous Value 3.75% (April 30, 02:00)
Google conference call (April 30, 04:30)
Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft conference call (April 30, 05:30)
Apple conference call (May 1, 5:00 AM)
Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens, worth about $3.9 million, on April 30.
Zora (ZORA) will unlock approximately 166.7 million tokens, worth about $2.3 million, on April 30.
Gunz (GUN) will unlock approximately 354 million tokens, worth about $5.5 million, on April 30.
Kamino (KMNO) will unlock approximately 229 million tokens, worth about $4.5 million, on April 30.
EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock approximately 36.82 million tokens, worth approximately $6.6 million, on May 1st.
ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 44.26 million tokens on May 1st, worth approximately 25...
Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 42.62 million tokens on May 1st, worth approximately $39.42 million.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Rain up 7.9%, Pump.fun up 6.7%, Pi Network up 6.5%, Bittensor up 6.2%, and Aerodrome Finance up 3.9%.