Trading Moment: Global Assets Surge, Bitcoin Breaks $80,000, CME Gap at $84,000 Awaits Filling

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

As risk aversion subsided, global capital markets rallied. US Secretary of State Rubio announced the end of Operation Epic Fury, Trump suspended the Freedom Program, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East were temporarily eased.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all hit new record highs, while South Korea's KOSPI index surged 6.45% to a high of 7426 points, not only breaking through the 7000-point mark but also triggering a circuit breaker. The A-share market opened strong after the May Day holiday, with the STAR Market 50 index soaring over 9% intraday and the ChiNext index rising 3.65%.

The yen surged 1.8% against the dollar in Asian trading on Wednesday, nearing the 155 level and rebounding nearly 300 points from its daily low, suggesting possible further intervention by the Japanese government. On April 30, Japan implemented a $34.5 billion intervention, driving the yen up 3%. Goldman Sachs analysts predict that Japan's current reserves could support 30 similar operations, but the government may choose a more effective time to intervene.

AI and the Stock Market

The semiconductor and computing hardware supply chain has become the biggest winner in this round of market rally. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 4.23%; AMD's first-quarter revenue grew 38% to $10.3 billion, with its data center business surging 57%, driving its after-hours stock price up more than 16%.

Memory chips are considered the "hard currency" of AI infrastructure, with Micron Technology and SanDisk both surging over 10%, pushing their market capitalizations above $720 billion and $200 billion respectively. Samsung Electronics, thanks to a 756% surge in operating profit for a single quarter, saw its stock price jump 14%, pushing its market capitalization past the $1.2 trillion mark, becoming the second Asian company after TSMC to reach this level; SK Hynix also recorded gains of over 10%. Dave Mazza of Roundhill points out that the market has reached a consensus: memory chips face a structural shortage in the AI era, rather than cyclical fluctuations.

The tech giants "Big Seven" have been making frequent moves. Apple's stock rose 2.66% on news of talks with Intel to manufacture chips and plans to open up external AI services in iOS 27, while Intel surged nearly 13% on the same news. Optical module giant Lumentum also saw its order book overflowing, with revenue reaching a record high of $808 million and orders booked until 2028. Meanwhile, Google secured a massive $200 billion computing power contract with Anthropic and is secretly developing the "Lobster" app; while Meta, while developing the "OpenClaw" assistant, issued $25 billion in bonds despite declining demand.

Bitcoin price

After three months of consolidation, Bitcoin finally broke through the $80,000 mark during the May Day holiday and is currently attempting to break through the 200-day exponential moving average. Strong buying in spot ETFs has been the biggest driver of this rally, with inflows totaling $1.629 billion since May. In the options market, the demand premium for call options has exceeded that of put options by 24%, and miners' hashrate revenue has also rebounded to $37/PH/s.

However, on-chain data shows that the number of daily active wallets has dropped to a two-year low of 531,000, the cost line for short-term holders has reached $81,486, and exchange reserves are as high as 2.685 million coins. This indicates that this round of market activity is more driven by institutional funds and existing capital, lacking widespread participation from retail investors.

Bearish view

From the perspective of the bearish camp, the current rise is merely a bear market rebound lacking structural support, and major funds are using sentiment to lure in more buyers and distribute their holdings.

Roman: After a surge in price with high volume, a sharp drop is inevitable. The previous prediction that the price would fall to the 70,000 or even 60,000 range still holds true.

Data agencies Santiment and Zizcrypto report that on-chain activity has fallen to a two-year low, with the number of whale addresses holding over 10,000 BTC stagnating at around 88. A rally lacking new users and whale buying is extremely fragile; once profit-taking occurs, the market will lose its support.

bullish view

The bullish camp firmly believes that the frenzied hoarding by long-term holders and the continuous inflow of ETFs have opened the door for Bitcoin to reach a higher dimension.

Killa: Currently, there are no bearish signals in the Bitcoin market structure. Shorting would only become a reasonable option if Bitcoin falls below its April highs and shows clear bearish signals. On the other hand, now is not an ideal time to look for long positions either. The best entry point for long positions is a strong pullback in the 74-75K range. I am currently holding positions and have set a stop-loss at 84K.
TedPillows: The gap around $84,000 on the CME for Bitcoin has not yet been filled. If BTC can hold above $80,600, it may further fill the CME gap; if it falls below $80,000, it may retrace to the $77,000-$78,000 range.
Sykodelic: On-chain data shows that long-term holders are making an unprecedented buying spree, adding 1 million BTC last week alone, bringing their total holdings to 2 million (10% of the total supply). This is a super signal that the market will not reach new lows.

Traders CryptoJack and Ash Crypto: The record highs in US stocks have opened up possibilities for the crypto market, and the BTC/gold exchange rate has surged 46%. If the daily chart can stabilize above $81,300, Bitcoin will inevitably explode to $85,000 or even $95,000.
On-chain expert Murphy: The net profit/loss ratio (NRPL) has returned above the zero line, and the average profit over 24 hours has exceeded $62.95 million, breaking the divergence between volume and price. This indicates that the market has a strong ability to generate revenue and is emerging from the deep bear market, entering a period of transition from bear to bull market.
AlphaBTC and Michael van de Poppe: ETF funds have returned, Bitcoin is on a "liquidity hunt," the $84,000 CME gap above looks extremely tempting, and the bullish trend has been established.
Trader Don Wedge: The head and shoulders bottom reversal pattern is coming into play, and once the daily chart breaks above the 200-day moving average, the uptrend will be fully confirmed.
Astronomer: Long positions have been closed at $81,000. We expect a pullback to the $70,000 range to buy again without risk. The overall trend remains strongly bullish.

Don Wedge: The head and shoulders bottom pattern on the daily chart for Bitcoin is unfolding perfectly. As long as it holds above the 200-day moving average, the bullish trend will be fully established.

Market Dynamics

As the stock market's storage sector strengthens, storage-related altcoins in the crypto market (such as AR, FIL, and STORJ) have also begun to show unusual activity, with STORJ rising by more than 30% in the past 24 hours.

In the privacy coin sector, ZEC has surged over 60% this month with the support of Multicoin. Multicoin founder Tushar Jain stated that ZEC is the best censorship-resistant asset in the face of the potential threat of government seizure of wealth. Analysts GEM DETECTER and Javon Marks also predict that the price of ZEC could break through $600 to $1000.

Furthermore, the TON ecosystem has witnessed a major turning point. Founder Pavel Durov announced that Telegram will replace the foundation as the network's largest validator node, network transaction fees will drop sixfold to near zero, and new developer tools are about to be launched. Stimulated by this positive news, TON has risen by over 60% since May 4th, and has also driven up the prices of other projects in the ecosystem, such as NOT and DOGS.

Key data (as of 14:00 HKT, May 6)

(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: +$467 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of net inflows.
Ethereum ETF: +$97.5728 million, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows.
SOL ETF: +$1.7425 million
XRP ETF: +$11.2766 million
Fear of Greed Index: 46 (Neutral)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: WIF, BTC, ETH, XRP, ZIL
Sector Performance: Crypto market broadly rose, with SocialFi leading the gains at over 13%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 87,009 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $285 million, including $84.54 million in BTC liquidations, $29.67 million in ETH liquidations, and $44.83 million in ZEC liquidations.

Today's Outlook

Binance Futures will launch three types of U-margin perpetual contracts on May 6th: AMD, QCOM, and USAR.
Bitcoin mining company American Bitcoin will release its Q1 financial report on May 6.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock approximately 9.92 million tokens, worth about $400 million, on May 6.
RedStone (RED) will unlock 40.85 million tokens, worth approximately $5.5 million, on May 7.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Zcash up 29.3%, SkyAI up 28.4%, Toncoin up 23.6%, BUILDon up 22.5%, and Venice Token up 15.8%.