Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macro Market
U.S. stocks opened lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.07%, the Nasdaq Composite Index plunging 1.54%, and the S&P 500 Index dropping 1.24% to close at 7,408.50. The decline continued on Monday, with futures for the three major U.S. stock indices falling more than 0.5%.
Global bond markets experienced a sell-off due to heightened inflation concerns, with yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds hitting near three-year highs . The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 5.159%, its highest level since October 2023; the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached 4.63% and 4.10%, respectively, new highs since February 2025. Bond traders generally consider the 5% yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond to be a "watershed," believing that this level will attract bargain hunters. Gunther Diggler, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at BNP Paribas, said, "There is no anchor point above 5%." He advised clients to focus on a trading range of 5.25% to 5.5% for the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond.
The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose to 2.75%, surpassing the 2.3% dividend yield of the TOPIX index for the first time since 2007; the yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds hit a new high since 1999. Nomura Securities strategist Naka Matsuzawa stated that this round of Japanese bond sell-offs differs from previous market fluctuations, triggered by external pressures such as rising oil prices, changes in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, and political risks in the UK. In particular, rising inflation expectations have pushed Japan's 10-year breakeven inflation rate (BEI) to 2.15%, exerting sustained upward pressure on yields.
Spot gold fell below $4,500 for the first time since the end of March , plunging 1.2% to $4,480. Despite rising energy costs due to escalating conflict in the Middle East and a global bond market sell-off putting short-term pressure on gold prices, Goldman Sachs maintained its bullish outlook, predicting gold prices will rise to $5,400 per ounce by the end of the year. UBS and ANZ Bank, on the other hand, forecast gold prices to reach $5,600 and $6,000 respectively.
Asian stock markets opened under pressure, with A-shares and Japanese and South Korean markets generally declining. South Korea's KOSPI index plunged as much as 4.7% during the session, but rebounded strongly, driven by leading chip stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The KOSPI index closed up 0.31%, with Samsung Electronics rising 4.67% and SK Hynix gaining 1.12%.
AI and the Stock Market
With the 30-year US Treasury yield remaining stable above 5%, AI and tech stocks are facing significant pressure from this "interest rate wall." Societe Generale warned that the AI sector has entered a "danger zone." Prolonged high interest rates are precisely targeting AI capital expenditures. Last Friday, Intel plunged over 6%, AMD plummeted 5.7%, Micron Technology dropped 6.6%, and even AI giant Nvidia couldn't escape the downturn, falling 4.4%. Cerebras Systems, which just went public last week with a 68% gain, immediately gave back 10%. Investors are closely watching the further impact of Nvidia's earnings report this week on AI stocks.
Bitcoin price
Bitcoin has been weak recently, falling below the $77,000 mark, with downside targets potentially reaching $76,500 or even $75,000. It's worth noting that $75,000 is a historically significant support level. If the daily close is above $78,000, there is still hope for a technical rebound.
Data shows that the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures exceeds 0.7, indicating that BTC volatility may be further amplified when the Nasdaq experiences a sharp decline. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows, with a net outflow of $1.039 billion last week, ending a six-week streak of net inflows.
In addition, due to the weekend sell-off, Bitcoin has an unfilled CME gap near $79,000, which is in a significant resistance zone, and the market may be watching to see if it will be filled.
Bearish view
The high-interest-rate environment has increased the opportunity cost of holding cryptocurrency, and coupled with short-term speculators selling at high prices and the continuous outflow of funds from ETFs, Bitcoin's technical pattern and momentum are rapidly deteriorating.
Gino Matos: After Bitcoin fell below $77,700, $76,500 will be the first target, followed by the $75,000 bottom-fishing level. If the situation continues to deteriorate, it will head straight for the macro deleveraging range of $73,000 to $74,000.
10x Research: Bitcoin is testing the 30-day moving average. A confirmed break below this level would indicate a deterioration in momentum, with current market sentiment plummeting from 87% to 45%.
Daan Crypto Trades: If Bitcoin's price falls below the bullish support zone of $75,000 to $76,000, a liquidity vacuum could cause the price to drop rapidly to $71,000.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler: $82,000 is a strong selling pressure zone. The STH-SOPR indicator shows that short-term holders are taking profits on the rebound and exiting the market. Any rebound before breaking below the 200-day moving average is a selling opportunity.
Analyst Ali: Traders' average realized profit margin has risen to 17%, the market is showing signs of "overheating," and potential profit-taking pressure is surging, with signals reminiscent of a short-term top in March 2022 flashing again.
EliZ: Buying volume has lost momentum, and the Binance futures order book is heavy with sell orders. The 12-hour chart suggests a potential trend reversal, with $75,000 becoming a huge price magnet.
Doctor Profit: We have significantly increased our short positions around $78,000, and short positions now account for 50% of our total positions. We are firmly bearish on the market outlook.
Man of Bitcoin: The rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level was weak. If it falls below $74,917, a deeper correction will begin.
bullish view
The current sharp market correction is mainly aimed at clearing out highly leveraged long positions and filling the CME gap. On-chain supply is actually tightening, and the bottom range has already emerged.
Binance Research: Four on-chain signals indicate that Bitcoin supply is tightening, selling pressure has been largely exhausted, and the value ratio of long-term to short-term holders is at a historical low, suggesting that the bottom of the cycle has arrived.
Killa: There is an 85% probability that the gap around $79,000 on the CME will be filled, and we are currently building hedging long positions to bet on this rebound expectation.
Tryrex: The market is volatile and hesitant. The current pullback is more like a liquidity grab around $78,000, which will then reverse and liquidate the early short positions.
Key data (as of 14:00 HKT, May 18)
(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)
Bitcoin ETF: Net outflow of $1.039 billion last week, ending six consecutive weeks of net inflows.
Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $255 million last week, with BlackRock's ETHA experiencing the largest net outflow at $185 million.
SOL ETF: Net inflow of $58.1181 million last week.
XRP ETF: Net inflow of $60.495 million last week.
Fear of Greed Index: 28 (Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: TRAC, BTC, XRP, ETH, IRYS
Sector Performance: The crypto market generally declined, with only the DeFi and SocialFi sectors showing relative resilience.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 101,106 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $576 million, including $189 million in BTC liquidations, $168 million in ETH liquidations, and $12.71 million in XRP liquidations.
Today's Outlook
Binance Futures will launch multiple USDT-margined TradFi perpetual contracts on May 18th.
Coinbase will launch four AI infrastructure stock perpetual contracts on May 18.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit China from May 19 to 20.
YZY (YZY) will unlock approximately 20.83 million tokens, worth approximately $6.2 million, on May 18th.
Pyth Network (PYTH) will unlock 1.87 billion tokens, worth approximately $100 million, on May 19.
Google I/O 2026 developer conference will be held from May 19th to 20th, 2026.
The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: DeXe up 7.10%, Kite up 6.00%, Hyperliquid up 5.50%, Venice Token up 4.70%, and Humanity up 2.70%.
