Report: US users secretly wagered up to $34 billion through offshore prediction platforms

PANews reported on June 12th that, according to The Block, consulting firm Crane Zeng released a report stating that US users trade between $11 billion and $34 billion through offshore prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Myriad Markets. These platforms should theoretically restrict access for US users through geofencing, but users often bypass these restrictions using VPNs. The report states that Polymarket alone accounts for $11 billion to $27 billion, calling this a "conservative" estimate. The report predicts that by 2030, annual trading volume by US users in offshore prediction markets could increase to $133 billion.

The report shows that offshore prediction markets accounted for 84.4% of the industry's total trading volume in 2024, decreasing to 60.9% in 2025, but the total trading volume increased nearly fourfold. Currently, CFTC-regulated platforms in the US (Kalshi, Crypto.com, etc.) have an annual trading volume of approximately $74 billion, while offshore platforms account for approximately $85 billion. The report states that blockchain-based platforms are the easiest to access due to the lack of KYC and anonymity. Polymarket, banned from serving US users without registration in 2022, later re-entered the US market with CFTC approval through the acquisition of QCEX. Unlicensed global platforms remain prohibited from serving US users.

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Author: PA一线

This content is for market information only and is not investment advice.

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