"White-haired stock market guru" Serenity: Traders should return to fundamentals and capital structure, rather than "chart faith."

PANews reported on June 14th that Serenity, the self-proclaimed "White-Haired Stock God," wrote that technical analysis (TA) is more like "astrology" for traders. Its essence is a combination of confirmation bias and market psychology, used to judge market sentiment rather than the core factors determining prices. The significant rises of many individual stocks are not due to chart patterns, but rather driven by fundamentals and expectations. For example, $SIVE rose by approximately 1900%, driven by the market repricing future revenue expectations related to $JBL and $GFS; $AXTI rose by approximately 8000%, which is related to industry logic such as indium phosphide substrates, photonics demand, and export controls.

Serenity further points out that technical analysis can only reflect the psychological expectations of market participants. For example, chart predictions around $IREN cannot offset the structural supply pressure brought about by large-scale financing (ATM). The real factors determining stock price trends should include industry theme linkages, changes in earnings expectations, the macroeconomic environment, financial performance, and the structure of circulating shares.

Technical analysis (TA) may be used to find entry points, but what determines the long-term potential of a stock should be the fundamentals and capital structure, rather than "chart faith".

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Author: PA一线

This content is for market information only and is not investment advice.

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