Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, we review the market with data and seize opportunities through trends, covering macroeconomics, US stocks, precious metals, crude oil, and crypto assets, providing insights into key changes in global markets. Produced by PANews.
Macro Market
The main theme of global macro trading is shifting from "geopolitical shocks" to "policy and liquidity reassessment." The core driver comes from the advancement of the US-Iran temporary peace framework. The US and Iran are expected to formally sign a memorandum of understanding on June 19. The core of the agreement is the immediate lifting of sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports and the gradual restoration of shipping order in the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI crude oil fell nearly 6% to around $75, and Brent crude fell below $80 for the first time in over three months. Traders generally believe this round of adjustment is not a deterioration on the demand side but a pure expectation trade of "declining probability of war → return of supply expectations." At the same time, there is still a clear divergence in the oil market structure: On one hand, the market expects maritime transport to return to normal within 30 days, but on the other hand, the passage rules for the Strait of Hormuz, potential "navigation fee disputes," and the $300 billion reconstruction funding mechanism have not yet been finalized, meaning "peace narrative ≠ full supply recovery."
In precious metals, gold maintained slight fluctuations, and silver followed the volatility but lacked a trend breakout. The market views them more as "tail-risk protection assets" hedging against FOMC and geopolitical execution risks, rather than a trending safe-haven play.
The market focus has now shifted to the "debut" of new Federal Reserve Chair Warsh at the interest rate meeting. Although the market widely expects the benchmark interest rate to remain unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, policy signals may undergo a major shift. Affected by inflation breaking 4% and demand pressure brought by AI investment, the discussion of rate cuts within the Fed has basically disappeared, turning instead to whether rate hikes are needed. Key points to watch include: the post-meeting statement may remove "easing bias" wording, and the quarterly "dot plot" expectations may shift from rate cuts to holding steady or hiking.
Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the market has entered a liquidity contraction window, with the 10-year US Treasury yield oscillating around 4.3%, and risk assets are generally in a deleveraging state. As the US stock market is closed on June 19, June 18 becomes the only complete trading window before the brief absence of the world's largest pricing center, and the market is passively entering a phase of early position adjustment and concentrated volatility release.
Next, we need to pay attention to:
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June 18, 02:00 US FOMC Interest Rate Decision + 02:30 Warsh Press Conference:If the dot plot is weakened or the framework is incompletely disclosed, or if Warsh releases hawkish signals, it will directly raise real interest rate pricing, reshape the global interest rate curve, compress the valuation center of Nasdaq and AI high-beta assets, and trigger systemic deleveraging.
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June 19 US-Iran Agreement Signing Node:If the pace of sanction lifting exceeds expectations, crude oil may enter the next round of rapid repricing, moving further towards the $70 center.
US Stock Market Dynamics
The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high for the fourth consecutive day, surging 0.64% to 51,999.67 points. Meanwhile, the rout in tech stocks dragged the Nasdaq down 1.15%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.57%. Academy Securities Director Peter Tchir pointed out that the market is being forced to digest a massive supply of IPOs, and if the S&P 500 falls below 7,530 points in the short term, it will directly test the deep-water zone of 7,480-7,450.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 5.71%, with Marvell Technology plunging 9.8%, Intel and AMD plummeting 8.5% and 7.3% respectively, KLA Corporation falling over 7%, Micron plunging 6.2%, and even Nvidia (down over 2%) and TSMC ADR (down over 3%) were not spared.
The main reason for this sharp decline was Microsoft's decision. Microsoft not only canceled a $3 billion Oracle cloud leasing agreement, but its Vice President Charles Lamanna also stated that Copilot will shift to "pay-per-use" and consider replacing expensive closed-source models with open-source models like DeepSeek V4. In addition, OpenAI's net loss of up to $38.53 billion last year further exposed the financial pressure facing AI infrastructure.
SpaceX options officially began trading on Tuesday, igniting the market on the first day. Call option trading volume reached nearly 1 million contracts, ranking fifth among all US options.SpaceX's stock price surged nearly 5% on the day to $201.80, hitting $225.64 intraday, a cumulative surge of about 50% from the $135 IPO price. Its market value reached $2.65 trillion, successfully surpassing Amazon.Many large funds are frantically buying call options, betting that the stock price will continue to rise sharply. At the same time, some institutions are more cautious, "buying insurance" by purchasing put options to guard against potential declines after future share unlocks.
Next, we need to pay attention to:
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June 18 SpaceX Weekly Options Expected to Launch:The launch of more derivatives may further absorb retail speculative funds from the tech sector.
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July 7 Nasdaq 100 Officially Includes SpaceX: If the scale of passive fund positioning for SpaceX reaches $8-18 billion, it will create a phased supply-demand mismatch with the extremely low float, amplifying price volatility.
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Late July SpaceX Q2 Earnings and Lock-up Expiration:Selling pressure from 10-15% of early unlocked shares will test the support bottom lines of institutions like Ron Baron.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin maintained a range-bound oscillation structure, with the market forming a short-term long-short dividing line around $64,000. Analysts generally believe that the current structure lacks trend drivers, and the overall market has entered a macro waiting phase.
Structurally, resistance above is concentrated at $68,500 (Weekly 200EMA), and support below is at $62,000 (Weekly 200MA), forming a typical mid-band oscillation structure.
Meanwhile, risk signals are frequent on the institutional side. Strategy's preferred stock STRC plummeted to $91.79, triggering market concerns about debt, and Strive SATA was also hit hard due to zero debt issues.
Analysts warn that if Bitcoin falls below $64,000, it may retest the $60,000 support level, and $48,300 is considered the structural iron bottom.
Today's Highlights:
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Spark (SPK) will unlock approximately 900 million tokens on June 17, worth about $17.8 million
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YZY (YZY) will unlock approximately 20.83 million tokens on June 17, worth about $6.2 million
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Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: WLD, XRP, XLM, SPX, JTO
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Bitcoin Spot ETF: +$10.0643 million
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Ethereum Spot ETF: +$9.5876 million
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HYPE Spot ETF: +$8.6205 million
Top 100 Tokens by Market Cap, Biggest Gainers Today:LAB up 36%, SPX up 24%, UNI up 22%, AERO up 11%, H up 6.9%.
Asia-Pacific Market Trends
Asian markets are in a "wait-and-see mode" amid policy uncertainty in Europe and the US. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index rebounded quickly after opening lower, ultimately rising intraday and reclaiming the 70,000-point level, hitting a record high. Although the poor performance of the US semiconductor industry led to a 5% drop in SoftBank Group's stock price, the plunge in crude oil prices triggered by the draft US-Iran peace agreement reduced the Japanese manufacturing sector's dependence on energy imports, and the market is full of anticipation for the Bank of Japan's subsequent policy guidance.
The South Korean market was clearly under pressure, with the KOSPI index falling about 1%. The Middle East conflict caused a sharp drop of 40,000 jobs in May, the lowest record in 17 months. Tech stocks were hit hard, with Samsung Electronics' stock price plunging over 3%, and Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Hyundai Motor both falling over 2%. In response, South Korea's Ministry of Finance urgently promised to adopt employment revitalization measures to cope with the current difficulties. However, on the other hand, South Korean retail investors, the "Seohak Ants," showed extreme investment enthusiasm, buying $795.93 million worth of SpaceX stock in a single day, a record high, betting real money on the future of Musk-related stocks.
The Chinese market exhibited a "policy-driven + structural rotation" characteristic, with the Shanghai Composite Index turning positive after dipping, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fluctuated higher. A-share sectors such as AI hardware, PCBs, and copper-clad laminates strengthened, with leaders like BOE hitting the daily limit up; however, consumer and automotive sectors faced pressure. In Hong Kong stocks, the trend was similarly divergent, with the Hang Seng Index edging lower, but tech stocks performed strongly—Kuaishou rose over 3%, and MINIMAX surged more than 8%.
Positive news emerged on the policy front, as the Lujiazui Forum unveiled multiple financial opening and tech capital market reform measures, including expanding the STAR Market to AI large models, piloting RMB foreign exchange futures, and broadening REITs, reinforcing the dual mainline expectations of "technology + capital markets."
Key points to watch next:
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June 19: China A-shares and Hong Kong stocks closed for holiday—Asia-Pacific markets may bear "one-sided pricing volatility," with increased volatility in the Nikkei and KOSPI indices.
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Pace of China's detailed policy implementation: If AI and REITs accelerate, it will reinforce a structural rally in medium-term risk assets, rather than an index-driven market.
