PANews, June 26 – CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a report pointing out that Bitcoin's Realized Net Profit/Loss (90-day MA) has been negative for the fifth consecutive month, with the current reading at -$203.2 million. This means the market is systematically locking in losses, consistent with the early stages of past bear cycles. However, the cost basis of holder cohorts shows core support lies in the $48,000–$56,000 range. Looking at cost basis by cohort: whales (10,000+ BTC) at $48,100, small addresses (10–100 BTC) at $47,800, large wallets (1,000–10,000 BTC) at $56,500 – all still below the current price. Only the 100–1,000 BTC cohort ($65,700) is in loss, making it the main source of current loss-selling.

Adler noted this contrasts with the full capitulation in 2022, when nearly all cohorts fell below their cost basis. The current market shows a controlled decline rather than a capitulation pattern. The main risk lies in breaking the $48,000–$56,000 support zone; if this range is lost, it would push more holders into loss and open up deeper downside.