Author: Frank, PANews

Six months ago, investors who were anticipating a crypto "supercycle" probably didn't expect that, six months later, BTC would have fallen by nearly half. From a high of $125,000 on October 6, 2025, it has fallen to $66,600 today, a drop of 46.56%.

This decline is not a correction, but a systemic clearing. PANews retrieved price data from 424 USDT spot trading pairs from the Ministry of Crypto Security, and the results were alarming:

Only 11 assets recorded positive returns in the past six months, accounting for 2.6%; 405 assets had a maximum drawdown of over 50%, accounting for a staggering 95.5%; even when the standard was broadened to "outperform BTC," only 50 assets achieved this, with 88% of altcoins underperforming the market. Among the 45 key projects monitored across 8 sectors, only Maker recorded positive returns.

This is a harsh reality. But exposing the wounds isn't the purpose of this article. When the tide recedes and the bubble bursts, those assets that are still profitable, public chains that are still receiving capital inflows, and ecosystems that are still experiencing user growth constitute the most valuable signals for the entire market. PANews, based on total spot trading data, on-chain metrics of 12 major public chains, and price performance of 45 representative projects across 8 sectors, attempts to find "signs of life" amidst this ruin.

(Analysis scope: The research period is from October 6, 2025 to March 29, 2026. The Binance spot 424 pairs are the effective samples after deduplication, excluding stablecoins, fiat-pegged tokens, and leveraged tokens. On-chain data comes from DefiLlama, growthepie, and Token Terminal. Project prices are based on Binance prices and CoinGecko.)

I. The 10 survivors from 424 assets belong to three completely different species.

First, let's look at the full list. During the six months when BTC plummeted and the entire market was in turmoil, the following assets recorded positive returns on Binance Spot:

At first glance, BANANAS31 rose by 141% and KITE by 111%, which seems like remarkable achievements. But upon closer inspection, these 11 "survivors" are actually three completely different species.

The first type is those that truly withstood the test; JST, ZEC, and DCR belong to this category.

JST is particularly noteworthy. Its price surged 78.5% over the period, while its maximum drawdown was only 9.89%, making it the only asset with a positive return and a drawdown of less than 10%. While 95% of assets experienced drawdowns exceeding 50%, JST bucked the trend. The core reason is that JustLend DAO officially released its "JST Buyback and Burn Proposal" on October 11th. The proposal utilizes DeFi revenue from the JustLend protocol to transparently buy back and permanently burn JST on-chain, achieving continuous deflation. This move demonstrated fundamental resilience amidst market panic and liquidation, quickly attracting capital inflows and driving a price rebound.

ZEC and DCR represent a different logic: the safe-haven effect of privacy coins in a bear market. ZEC's maximum drawdown was 22.63%, and DCR's was 32.92%, demonstrating remarkable resilience in this generally disastrous environment. The two established privacy coins survived not only because of their narratives, but also because of their long-standing community foundation and the continued demand for anonymous transactions.

In addition, STG (Stargate, a cross-chain bridge protocol) rose by 13.75%, and SKY (the governance token of MakerDAO after its rebranding) rose by 3.56%, both belonging to DeFi infrastructure. Cross-chain bridges have a strong demand in a weak market (users need to transfer funds across chains for hedging), and stablecoin governance protocols have continuous protocol revenue, the logic of which is exactly the same as JST.

The second type is "die first, then revive." BANANAS31 and DEXE belong to this category. Their common characteristic is an extremely deep maximum drawdown (87% to 98%), followed by a rebound of several hundred or even thousands of percentage points from this extremely low point. BANANAS31, for example, had a maximum drawdown of 98.07% and a rebound of 12391%, seemingly a 124-fold increase. However, the fundamental reason for this was the excessive price drop caused by the crash on October 11th, which allowed even a very small amount of buying to drive a rebound of several hundred percentage points, turning it into a playground for manipulation by large investors.

The third type is newly listed coins. KITE has only 147 days of trading history, and ESP has only 46 days. Their high price increases reflect their performance in the initial stage after listing and have not fully withstood the test of a bear market.

Stripping away these distractions, only five cryptocurrencies truly deserve a place on the "winter survivor" list: JST, ZEC, DCR, STG, and SKY. They covered a full six-month period, with manageable declines and genuine gains. The common characteristics of these five names are clear: either they have real-world on-chain use cases (lending, cross-chain bridges, stablecoins) or they have a long-term, surviving community base (privacy coins). This is the first sign of life: in the crypto world, "usefulness" outlasts "fame."

II. Several clues worth tracking are hidden among the 50 assets that "outperformed BTC".

BTC itself fell by 46.56%. Most of the 50 assets that outperformed BTC do not necessarily "performed well," but simply fell relatively less. In terms of distribution, apart from the 11 with positive returns, 14 fell between 0% and 30%, 25 fell between 30% and 46%, and the remaining 374 all underperformed the market, accounting for 88% of the total.

Among these 50 names, there are several clues worth following.

TRX (down 8.03%) is the token of the Tron public blockchain. Connecting this to the performance of JST in the first section, a clear picture emerges: the Tron ecosystem has demonstrated overall resilience in this bear market. While the token's decline was in the single digits, DeFi projects within the ecosystem saw positive returns, supported by the genuine demand for stablecoin settlements. Tron carries the largest share of USDT across the entire network, and this settlement layer's position has not only remained unshaken in the weak market but has become even more solidified.

TAO (down 7.48%) is Bittensor, the only project in the AI sector to keep its decline in single digits. Against the backdrop of AI Agent concept coins collectively halving or even going to zero, TAO's resilience demonstrates that the market is differentiating between "AI narratives" and "AI infrastructure." Projects with actual decentralized computing networks in operation have not yet seen their pricing logic collapse.

VIRTUAL (down 44.32%) saw a relatively manageable decline compared to the overall AI Agent sector, which experienced a drop of 70% to 90%. However, judging from the actual chart trend, it seems that the decline had already begun before the crash on October 11 and is currently still fluctuating at a low level.

88% of altcoins underperformed the market. From the remaining 12%, we can only faintly see a few survivors. The resilience of the Tron ecosystem is driven by the settlement needs of stablecoins, the underlying value of AI computing networks like Bittensor, and the essential needs of some large-scale DeFi infrastructures. These clues, though faint, all point in the same direction: real-world use, not just narratives.

III. "Health Check Report" of 12 Public Blockchains: Funds are being re-selected, and users are migrating back.

If token prices reflect market sentiment, then on-chain data reflects the true health of the ecosystem. PANews conducted a comprehensive assessment of 12 major public chains from two dimensions: fund retention (TVL, stablecoins, DEX trading volume) and user activity (daily active addresses). A scoring standard was developed by equally weighted averaging of the change rates of each dimension, without using a weighted method.

As a result, the funding and activity of most public blockchains have shrunk significantly, but amidst this shrinkage, a few unusual bright spots are shining.

Funds Retention: Polygon is the only one with a positive value.

First, let's look at the funding aspect. Among the 12 public chains, only Polygon showed the best performance in terms of fund retention. TVL increased by 8.66%, stablecoins by 47.99%, and DEX trading volume by 16.52%, all three being positive. Against the backdrop of a significant outflow of funds from the entire market, this is the only public chain with "all three green" indicators.

The main reason behind this is that the popularity of the prediction market Polymarket has boosted the vitality of the entire Polygon ecosystem. However, in addition, Polygon has also undergone its Rio upgrade during this period, taking advantage of the popularity of the prediction market from the perspective of performance optimization.

Although Tron (-20.44), ranked second, was negative, its stablecoin value increased by 11.42%, and its trading volume decreased relatively little, so its overall performance was still acceptable. Sui (-72.41), ranked last, suffered a complete collapse, with TVL falling by 77.64%, stablecoin value dropping by 44.10%, and DEX trading volume plummeting by 95.49%, almost completely drained.

Stablecoin flows: the most accurate indicator of fund flows

Of all on-chain metrics, stablecoin changes are perhaps the most noteworthy.

Data shows that Aptos saw the highest growth among stablecoins at 51.14%, followed by Polygon at 47.99%, BNB Chain at 22.66%, and Tron at 11.42%. On the other hand, Sui stablecoins fell by 44.10%, Optimism by 23.08%, and Arbitrum by 13.15%. Ethereum (+1.59%) and Solana (+1.07%) remained essentially flat.

This data reveals an important fact: stablecoins haven't left the crypto market on a large scale, but rather are choosing new harbors. Funds are withdrawing from high-risk DeFi protocols, L2 ecosystems, and MEME pools, flowing to relatively stable chains or those with promising future narratives.

Of particular note is Aptos, where stablecoins saw a 51% influx and daily active users (DAU) were also increasing, but its TVL (Value at Least) plummeted by 65.99%. This discrepancy stems from two main factors: firstly, Aptos's original stablecoin market capitalization was relatively small, only around $1.1 billion; secondly, the TVL figure primarily reflects the market capitalization loss caused by the sharp drop in APT token prices. Overall, Aptos's stablecoin growth has indeed been rapid, placing it among the top ten public blockchains.

Daily active users: Avalanche's 10-fold increase was the biggest surprise.

PANews also analyzed the daily active user metrics of all 12 public chains within the research period using data from growthepie (Ethereum and L2) and Token Terminal (L1 public chain).

Of the 12 public blockchains, only 4 achieved positive growth in daily active users (Avalanche, Aptos, Polygon, and Ethereum remained basically flat), but two extremely important discoveries are hidden among them.

The biggest increase was seen in Avalanche, with daily active users surging from 56,300 to 652,000, a more than tenfold increase. However, during the same period, Avalanche's TVL (total value) fell by 68.63%, and DEX trading volume dropped by 78.21%. The surge in users coupled with shrinking funds meant that new user growth couldn't keep up with the bear market's price decline. This growth primarily occurred after January. According to an Avalanche weekly report from January, after January 11th, Avalanche's Inter-Chain Communication (ICM) enabled independent Avalanche L1 blockchains to communicate with each other and transfer assets or data. Among these, three game-related L1 blockchains—CX, Grotto, and Henesys—contributed a significant amount of transactions.

The second is Ethereum, where daily active users only decreased by 8.44%, almost remaining flat, but the number of transactions increased significantly by 58.19%. This indicates that users remaining on Ethereum have become more active. There are fewer people, but those who stay are using it more and more frequently.

Aptos saw a 30.78% increase in daily active users, coupled with a 51.14% increase in stablecoins, resulting in growth in both funds and users. However, its TVL (total value) plummeted by 65.99%. The combined signal is that Aptos is attracting new participants, but they haven't yet entered the DeFi space on a large scale.

A negative example is Sui, whose daily active users plummeted from 766,000 to 148,500, a drop of 80.61%, mirroring the decline in TVL and stablecoins. The previous hype surrounding the Sui ecosystem has completely dissipated, with funds, users, and transaction volume all withdrawing.

IV. Eight Major Sectors: DeFi is the only sector with winners still emerging; L2 is already lifeless.

PANews selected 45 representative projects from eight major sectors—DeFi, AI Agent, RWA, Infrastructure, Exchange, DePIN, MEME, and Layer 2—based on their highest market capitalization and brand awareness. From a sector perspective, the ranking from strongest to weakest is: DeFi, AI Agent, RWA, Infrastructure, Exchange, DePIN, MEME, and Layer 2.

DeFi: Cash Flow is the Only Moat in a Bear Market

Of the 45 projects, only Maker (MKR) recorded a positive return (+1.8%), making it the sole winner. The reason behind Maker's continued growth is that its real protocol revenue has remained strong, consistently at a high level since 2025.

Hyperliquid ranked second in the DeFi sector with a drop of 18.09%. As a decentralized perpetual contract exchange, it also benefits from the logic that "trading demand does not disappear due to a bear market".

However, the DeFi sector is highly fragmented. Ethena fell 85.10%, Raydium fell 81.05%, and Pendle fell 77.71%. It's worth noting that these projects aren't without revenue. In fact, many of the heavily sold-off DeFi projects have decent protocol revenue. The real dividing line isn't "whether there's revenue or not," but rather the cyclical sensitivity of that revenue. Maker's stablecoin minting and RWA revenue don't fluctuate with market conditions, while Pendle's token trading, Ethena's funding rate arbitrage, and Raydium's MEME trading are highly dependent on bull market conditions. Once the market cools down, both revenue and token price collapse.

Layer 2: The worst track of the entire event

zkSync fell 70.73%, Arbitrum fell 80.58%, Starknet fell 81.37%, and Optimism fell 86.58%. The rebound of all four L2 tokens from their lows was zero, meaning that as of the time of data collection, the latest price was the lowest price in the range, and they continued to make new lows without any signs of a rebound.

The more heated the L2 narrative was in the last round, the more thoroughly it collapsed this time. Airdrop expectations, the TVL competition, and debates on technical routes—these engines that once drove valuations all went out after the market cooled down.

MEME: The long-established MEME brand has no takeover target.

From SHIB (down 55.33%) to MOG (down 82.77%), the rebounds from their lows were all in the single digits, with the highest being SHIB at only 8.51%, indicating that established MEME tokens currently seem to lack investor support. However, the MEME market appears relatively active, with platforms like Pump.fun maintaining high levels of revenue and token creation.

AI Agents: Platform-based are superior to socially driven ones.

AI Agent Bittensor (down 7.86%) and Virtual Protocol (down 44.36%) are the only two projects in the AI sector with declines within 50%. ElizaOS, on the other hand, fell 91.90%, and AIXBT dropped 75.15%. The differentiation logic is clear: projects with actual computing networks or platform functions are still being priced by the market, while AI concept coins driven purely by narratives and social interaction are going to zero. This logic is consistent with the differentiation in the DeFi sector: those that survive are the "useful" ones.

V. Five Signals Read from the Ruins

Looking at the data from 424 assets, 12 public chains, and 8 sectors together, the market is doing something very brutal but very clear: repricing everything in the crypto world. The pricing standard is no longer narrative, popularity, and expectations, but usage, revenue, and retention.

PANews gleaned five signals from this market correction that are worth tracking.

First, cash flow has become a survival threshold. Of the 11 assets with positive returns, DeFi accounts for 4. Polygon, the public chain with the strongest fund retention, relies on the continuous trading volume and active users brought by prediction markets. Maker, the only winner in its sector, relies on protocol revenue. "Having real revenue" is no longer a bonus in this market, but rather the minimum requirement for survival. However, currently, this doesn't necessarily mean these tokens will perform better.

Second, stablecoins are being redistributed, not withdrawn. Public chains such as Polygon (+47.99%), Aptos (+51.14%), and BNB Chain (+22.66%) are attracting stablecoin funds, and these high-performance chains seem to be gaining bets in the new narrative of stablecoins.

Third, the value of active users is declining. Avalanche's daily active users surged tenfold, but its TVL (total value of registered users) plummeted; Aptos saw both funding and users increase, but its TVL decreased. Looking closely at the underlying logic, creating a surge in active addresses seems easy, but retaining real revenue requires effort.

Fourth, the previous round of popular narratives has completely lost its effectiveness. L2 tokens are all at all-time lows with zero rebound, AI Agent has fallen by more than 80% at its tail end, MEME has completely collapsed, and Sui has experienced a three-dimensional resonance decline. The narratives that drove the market from the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2025 have been deemed by the market to be severely overvalued.

Fifth, truly useful things are only seen after the tide recedes. JST's lending, Maker's stablecoin minting, Stargate's cross-chain bridges, and Ethereum's infrastructure properties. These aren't exciting stories, but they are irreplaceable when users need to transfer funds, seek hedging, or settle transactions.

For ordinary investors, these data may not directly point to the next 100x coin, but they clearly outline a survival rule for navigating market cycles. When narratives fade and liquidity dries up, those things that people are actually using will be revealed, like a riverbed during the dry season. This is perhaps the most valuable lesson that every bear market leaves for the market.

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